With the uncertainty surrounding the NBA’s immediate future due to all of the positive Covid tests, it has made picking winners a little bit more complicated than usual. That said, we can find some value in these games tonight if we look hard enough. I’ve got my eye on the Philadelphia 76ers who will be facing a depleted Miami Heat team tonight.
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tuesday, January 12, 2021 – 7:00 PM EST at Wells Fargo Center
Most of Miami's Roster Is Out Today
As if it wasn't hard enough to handicap NBA games, now we have the added hurdle of trying to figure who is playing on a night to night basis. The Sixers have been dealing with this for a while now and I think they will actually be much more prepared tonight than the Heat, who seem to be coming into this game without most of their roster. The only starters that I can say looks as they will play are Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson. Other than him, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn, Meyers Leonard, and Kelly Olynyk are all listed as out for tonight's game.
The line for this game opened at -4 and has been quickly bet up to -6 at most of the top online sportsbooks. This line movement makes sense to me because even at full strength, Miami has not been particularly good this season. After an improbable run to the NBA Finals, they have started off the season 4-4, mostly due to their inconsistent offense. At the moment, they are 23rd in the league in terms of offensive efficiency. This is pretty bad considering they finished last season in 7th. It's still early in the season and they can certainly turn things around, but this latest setback will not help that process at all.
Sixers Need a Win Badly
One of the main reasons I'm laying points with the Sixers here is their continuity. Philadelphia will be playing their 3rd game with a makeshift lineup. They even welcomed Joel Embiid back last game and if anything, they have the advantage over the Heat who have to figure out what exactly they can do to compete. There's also the fact that yesterday, Sixers head coach Doc Rivers said that there is a possibility that Ben Simmons could return today.
If Ben Simmons plays, this looks like a slam dunk for the Sixers. They've lost three in a row and this is the ultimate get right spot. A struggling Miami team missing 90% of their regular rotation, including their three best players (Butler, Adebayo and Dragic). While I do not like the amount of points that I have to lay here, on the SBR odds page, BetOnline still has this game available at -4 (-110), which is my play for today.
There's more than just Philly's desperation to get a win or the fact that the Heat are undermanned. Since the start of the season, the Sixers have been playing elite defense. They've slipped to number 3 after spending most of the season at number one and the recent absences of Embiid and Simmons (2 of the 5-10 best defenders in the league at their positions). Having Embiid back is huge, and if they can get Simmons back tonight, I would be shocked if they didn't win by double digits tonight.
NBA Pick: Sixers -4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.
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