Daily MLB Picks: Moneylines, Runlines, and Totals

The Giants will travel cross country to take on the Miami Marlins in a weekend series. Do the Marlins have an edge? Here’s the best bet for tonight’s matchup.

San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

Saturday, April 17, 2021 – 06:10 PM EDT at loanDepot Park

Probable Pitchers:

• Giants: Aaron Sanchez (0-1, 2.70 ERA)
• Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (0-1, 2.45 ERA)

Aaron Sanchez didn’t start a game last year but the Giants took a shot at him this season and so far it’s paying off. Sanchez has allowed nine hits and three runs in 10 innings pitched with seven strikeouts and just one walk. He’s also induced 20 ground balls to just 11 fly balls and is locating well.

Currently there isn’t too much on Sanchez since he didn’t pitch last year but ultimately he’s averaging 6.3 strikeouts per nine innings and .9 walks per nine innings while getting over 60 percent of ground balls. He’s going up against a Marlins offense that really hasn't done anything special consistently against righties this year. The Marlins have six batters, including the pitcher, Alcantara, who have high strikeout potential against Sanchez in today’s game. Remember that for your sports betting.

While the Marlins have been able to work out walks against righties, Sanchez has shown that he’s capable of finding the zone in these first two games of the season. Adam Duvall and Jazz Chisholm are the only two batters that have done well hitting for extra base hits against righties this season. Starling Marte, Jesus Aguilar and Chisholm have a wOBA of .370 or higher against righties. The rest of the lineup really doesn’t stand out.

On the other hand, Sandy Alcantara will take the hill for the Marlins, going up against a Giants offense that has struggled a lot this year. The Giants are scoring 3.23 runs per game this season, which is 29th in baseball.

Alcantara already has three starts under his belt and he’s looked solid going 18.1 innings and allowing 10 hits and six runs (5 ER). He’s struck out 21 batters and walked just seven and is getting nearly 50 percent of ground balls this season, which is about what he did last season in the first place.

Against righties, the Giants are struggling. They’ll have eight players, including the pitcher, who have high strikeout rates. Something to keep in mind when looking at the baseball odds for this one. The only one who won’t be a huge strikeout threat would be Tommy La Stella, who will likely bat leadoff as one of the five lefties in the lineup.

The Giants are capable of working out walks against Alcantara as he’s walked 12.5 percent of lefties this season but the Giants are not capable with runners in scoring position this season or just runners on period. That has been the one area where Alcantara struggles. He is only leaving 65.2 percent of batters on base dating back to last year but having higher strikeouts and getting ground balls at nearly 50 percent of the time should increase that left on base percentage and at least get it to the MLB average.

Alcantara has pitched six innings or more in each start this season. His worst start came against the Braves on Monday where he got just four strikeouts and walked three batters while allowing three runs. When his strikeouts are higher, he performs much better. That should be the case against this Giants offense that has, again, eight guys who can strikeout at a high rate.

Prediction

With that said, I like the under in the first five innings in this one for my MLB Picks. Both pitchers have high strikeout potential against the opposition’s lineups, and on top of that, both pitchers can get a high dose of ground balls.

I’ve really enjoyed watching Sanchez pitch the last two games and believe he’s truly back in form. Meanwhile, Alcantara is becoming the ace of the staff for Miami and is going six innings or more consistently.

MLB Bet: Under 4.5 First Five (-141) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

SF-MIA U4.5 1st 5(-141)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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