Daily MLB Picks: Best Bets Today

The Rays have struggled offensively but just like the Red Sox, with the Orioles in town, a lot is about to change for Tampa Bay’s offense. Make sure to check the MLB odds at SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks. 

Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Monday, August 16, 2021 – 07:10 PM EDT at Tropicana Field

Probable Pitchers

• Orioles: Matt Harvey (6-11, 6.10 ERA)
• Rays: Josh Fleming (9-6 4.96 ERA)

The Rays had a poor weekend, losing two of three to the Minnesota Twins. The bigger storyline, however, was Nelson Cruz’s return to Target Field. The Twins showed Cruz who was boss, at least for that series. Anyway, the Red Sox were in the same boat as the Rays coming into last weekend’s series. The Red Sox were struggling offensively and just struggling to win games against anyone. Then they took on the Orioles and scored an average of 10 runs per game and 30 runs over the weekend against the Orioles starters and relievers. Boston broke out and essentially, the Rays should do the same.

Matt Harvey will take the mound for the Orioles. While he’s looked better as of late, Harvey still has a 6.10 ERA on the season with a WHIP of 1.56. In his last outing, Harvey gave up eight hits and three runs to the Tigers, allowing one home run and three walks. Harvey has allowed five runs in his last five outings. That’s really good for a guy with a 6.10 ERA but it also shows you just how bad he was earlier this season. He still has a 6.10 ERA after throwing 27.1 innings and allowing just five runs. Against the Rays, earlier in the season, Harvey struggled. He allowed seven hits and six runs in 1.2 innings, giving up two home runs and a walk along with just one strike out.

Austin Meadows and Brett Phillips, two left-handed bats, took Harvey deep and really the entire team went off against him in his one start against the Rays this season. Harvey currently has a 32.40 ERA and an OBA of .583 against the Rays on the year through 1.2 innings. That could get better today. Or it might not. The Rays offense projects really well, again, against Harvey. Combined, the Rays have a .241 ISO and .347 wOBA against righties in the last 30 days. They’re working 8.3 percent of walks and have a 21.6 percent strikeout rate against righties in the last 30 days. That’s not bad for the Rays. Six of the nine batters are hitting for hard contact against righties in the last 30 days and the Rays only hit 42.4 percent ground balls as of late. Harvey is giving up 45.2 percent hard contact so if the ball stays off the ground, hard contact will find the grass or seats in the outfield.

Prediction

The Rays have struggled offensively against starters in the last two games. But going up against Harvey should help their case. On top of that, the Orioles bullpen has been used and abused and they’ve got no breaks coming into this game. Harvey could be left out there to dry because in reality, the Orioles used four relievers yesterday, five on Saturday, and two on Friday. The Rays will be at home and likely only get eight innings to bat but since we’re getting a 4.5 number, for our MLB pick, I’m taking the Rays to score over 4.5 runs at -140.

A good day for Harvey would be allowing three runs through four or five innings. Then the Rays would have to score one or two runs against a depleted and overused bullpen that has looked terrible as of late. I’m signed up.

MLB Pick: Rays Over 4.5 TT (-140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Rays Over 4.5 TT (-140)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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