CONCACAF Gold Cup Odds, Picks, Predictions: United States vs. Haiti Betting Preview (July 11)

United States vs. Haiti Odds

The U.S. men’s national team opens its Concacaf Gold Cup campaign against Haiti on Sunday night in a game that doubles as a lesson on sports betting value.

The Americans are clearly the more talented team and are likely to get three points.

But given past history and present context in these games, they probably aren’t worth backing on a straight moneyline wager where the reward is too low for the risk.

So how do you find a bet worth making? It starts with taking a deeper look at each squad.

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United States Missing Biggest Stars

By design, this is not the same U.S. men’s national team roster that defeated Honduras and Mexico to win the Concacaf Nations League last month in Denver.

Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie, Giovanni Reyna and Tyler Adams are among the European-based stars who were allowed to begin the preseason with their club teams rather than attend a second national team camp.

In fact, none of the American players with the 10 highest current transfer values (according to Transfermarkt) were called in. The 11th — Orlando City striker Daryl Dike — will be receiving his fourth full cap if and when he sees the field Sunday.

Gregg Berhalter’s stated goal was to use the tournament to build squad depth ahead of World Cup qualifying that begins later this summer. And there’s still familiar faces from the MLS ranks. Among them? Goalkeeper Brad Guzan, defenders Walker Zimmerman and Reggie Cannon, midfielders Cristian Roldan, Kellyn Acosta and Paul Arriola, and striker Gyasi Zardes.

But whatever starting XI Berhalter sends out will be a group that hasn’t played together recently outside of a week of training.

Haiti Enters After Busy June

By contrast, this Haitian side has seen plenty of each other in the last month.

Haiti began June with wins over Turks and Caicos and Nicaragua to win their CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying first-round group. That put them into a two-leg playoff against Canada, where they suffered defeats of 1-0 and 3-0. The latter match turned on a once-in-a-career error by goalkeeper Josue Duverger.

Any worries about a hangover at the Gold Cup qualifying tournament were short-lived. Haiti easily cruised past St. Vincent and the Grenadines and Bermuda over the early part of July.

Leading the Haitian squad is Duckens Nazon, the nation’s second all-time leading scorer. Major League Soccer fans will recognize Columbus Crew winger Derrick Etienne Jr. Much of the rest of the squad is based professionally in the lower divisions of France, the U.S. and Canada.

In total, six of 11 starters of the squad that lost to Mexico in the 2019 Gold Cup semifinal are on this version of the Haitian squad, which also reached the quarterfinals in 2015.

Haiti has only three defeats in those last two tournaments, 1-0 losses to the U.S., Mexico and Jamaica.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

No one is denying the U.S. has superior talent, but Haiti’s advantages coming in should not be undersold.

Not only do they have a month of more or less continuous playing beneath them, they face an opponent using an unfamiliar lineup, with only a week of training and no friendlies in that shape.

The Americans are also without at least their best three creative players — Pulisic, Reyna and Brenden Aaronson — so it’s probably going to take some time to figure things out going forward.

Haiti will be happy to sit deep and let the U.S. try to solve a low block. And even if Haiti concedes early, there’s not much reason to chase the game aggressively.

A 1-0 or 2-0 loss would still suit Haiti, since most of its success will depend on how they fare against Canada and Martinique in their remaining group games. A narrow goal differential against the U.S. could be valuable as a tiebreaker.

If there’s any template for what to expect, it may be Haiti’s playoff against a full-strength Canada squad which is arguably as talented as this weakened U.S. group, at least in terms of starters.

Both games then would’ve gone under the total of 2.5 goals if not for that error by Duverger. This one is likely to do the same, and certainly worth betting on at +155 odds and an implied 39.2% probability.

You could also bet under 3.5 goals at -175 odds. But the value is at 2.5 for me, since this is the kind of game where if there are more than two goals, there could easily be four or five. You’d be better off betting the U.S. at -2.5 in an Asian Handicap as a hedge.

Pick: Total under 2.5 goals (+155)

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