College Football Regular Season Win Totals: Best Under Bets

From the winners to the losers in college football in 2021. We have you covered at TheSportsGeek with projected season win totals for the upcoming 2021 FBS campaign, both OVER and UNDER. If you want to check out which teams we believe are going to OVER their win total, then click the link above on winners. For the purposes of this breakdown, we’re going to try and pinpoint which schools are going to disappoint and finish below their expected wins.

Season win totals are generated mostly with an algorithm. The numbers are put into a computer and the oddsmakers have something to work with. It’s a highly complicated algorithm that takes every little variable into consideration. Long gone are the days of odds makers sitting around deciding on these team totals. Yes, of course, a human can tweak the numbers, but the computer does a lot of the heavy lifting.

In other words, the season win total is the best barometer of success. It’s our job to find where the odds makers have it wrong. Hopefully we did our job on the OVER bets, and now let’s aim to find winners on the UNDER side. If you are looking for spread and total selections this season, bookmark our college football page for weekly picks.

Baylor Bears Regular Season Wins

The Baylor Bears are looking for much better after a disappointing campaign in 2020. They found zero traction and finished with a record of 2-7 in 2020. There were no out of conference games for Baylor last season. In their two wins, Baylor defeated a horrid Kansas team, 47-14, and average Kansas State by a score of 32-31. The positive news for Baylor is that they were fairly competitive against No. 17 Iowa State, 38-31, and played hard in a 27-14 loss against the Oklahoma Sooners.

This Baylor isn’t the old squad that would put up 50+ points a game in high-scoring shootouts. They have stressed defense since Matt Rhule took over in 2017. First-year head coach Dave Aranda continued the defensive approach, which did a pretty good job, but little excitement on offense put the Bears at the bottom of the Big 12. Baylor will be without star wide receiver Denzel Mims in 2021. This was on a team that averaged only 318 yards per game for 118th in the FBS.

Baylor is also without their starting quarterback from last year, as Charlie Brewer is off to Utah for a year with the Utes. Gerry Bohanon will be inserted as the starter at Baylor in his fourth year with the program. Bohanan has passed for 194 yards with 2 touchdowns and no interceptions on 38 attempts. He found room to run in 2019 with 267 yards and 3 touchdowns on 6.4 yards a carry. Bohanan is going to depend on his legs often. The offensive line provided no help and is down three starters from 2020.

The defense should continue to be good under Aranda. They are going to be aggressive and go after offenses. After allowing 383 yards per game a season ago, expect Baylor to build on that production. Look for Terrel Bernard and Dillon Doyle to be active and disrupting offenses often in 2021. Unfortunately for Baylor, they are in the Big 12 and need an offense to compete. Their offense is likely to lag significantly. Following games against Texas State, Texas Southern, and Kansas, the rest of their schedule is tough. I see maybe two more wins there. Improvement will be made, but the defense can’t do it all.

Tulane Green Wave Regular Season Wins

This is one of those selections that you have to dig deep to find. If you’re not handicapping across every conference, then Tulane is going to be buried on your list. The Green Wave stick out for the simple fact that their situation on offense isn’t clear and it’s a difficult schedule.

Tulane has been a run-heavy offense the past few years and found success. However, they have a new offensive coordinator in 2021 and want to attempt to add a vertical game to their offense. That’s great and all, but I’m not so sure Michael Pratt has an offensive line that is going to keep him upright.

By design Tulane kept the ball on the ground, but when they did go to the pass, Pratt was being pressured and had to get rid of the ball quickly. Pratt was serviceable with 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 55.1% completions as a freshman. He’s a fine quarterback, but Pratt is going to need more protection to make this offense work under Chip Long. I can’t see it happening in this schedule.

Tulane has a tough out of conference and AAC schedule this season. Morgan State should be a win, but Oklahoma in Week 1 is tough, and then Week 3 they go to Oxford for a meeting against Ole Miss. Those are two quick losses. You have to figure they will be underdogs against Cincinnati, and trips to UCF and Memphis will be difficult. In an off the radar bet, give me the UNDER on Tulane.

Indiana Hoosiers Regular Season Wins

The Indiana Hoosiers are one of those teams where you just keep waiting for them to breakout and have a signature season. Then you realize they’re playing in the Big Ten, and are going to need several breaks to go their way for that to happen. Indiana is also good for an upset every season. They seem to win a game on their schedule that the oddsmakers didn’t see coming, or at least, competitive enough to make things interesting late.

The Hoosiers bring back quarterback Michael Penix Jr. after he tore his ACL last year. They have been cautious with Penix Jr. leading up to the regular season. Penix Jr. has been avoiding contact in camp, which is usual for any quarterback, but we don’t know how he’s going to react to contact. He passed for 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 56.4% completions before going down. If Penix Jr. comes back and doesn’t miss a beat, the Hoosiers are going to be a competitive team that might find an upset or two.

The most important thing is that Penix Jr. gets help from the running backs. The Hoosiers averaged just 108.6 yards per game. That ranks towards the bottom of the FBS. Starting running back Stevie Scott left, but Tim Baldwin should fill in nicely. If nobody can block for the backfield, it’s not going to matter who’s there, though. While the running back is likely going to get stuffed against Big Ten defenses, the Hoosiers’ defense is going to make some plays.

Perhaps the most underrated defense in the Big Ten, Indiana gave up 20.3 points and 378.1 yards per game. You aren’t going to hear about Indiana in any talks about the best defenses in the country, but they’re active and get in the backfield. In the Big Ten with so many good defenses, it just isn’t enough, though.

The Hoosiers will be good, but it’s a tough schedule. Ohio State at home sounds nice, but it means they’re going to have to go on the road to play Iowa, Penn State, Michigan, and Purdue. Those are close calls, with homefield advantage likely giving the edge to their opponent. Against Ohio State in Indiana, they’re still going to be underdogs. They also have a tricky out of conference matchup versus Cincinnati on September 18. I see a final record of 7-5 to fall just short of this win total.

Florida Gators Regular Season Wins

The Florida Gators look to build on a 8-4 campaign from 2020. In their final season with Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts, the Gators had an okay season to show for it. They finished off the season cold with three straight losses, including a 55-20 smackdown in the Cotton Bowl against the Oklahoma Sooners.

Florida had an upset win over Georgia, 44-28, but they beat up on a lot of weak opponents otherwise. When their schedule got tough with matchups against LSU, Alabama, and Oklahoma, the Gators weren’t ready for that pressure versus superior competition. Trask is gone to Tampa, so Florida will have a new man at the controls for the first time since 2018.

Emory Jones is the right guy to replace Trask. He has the ability to breakout and become an impact quarterback for the Gators. It would have been nice if he had Pitts to target, though. Pitts is a beast and the most dangerous element of the Florida offense last year. Jones is a runner that likes to take off on the ground. Expect much more of the option game from the offense compared to when Trask was starting.

The defense was anything but impressive a season ago. By Florida standards, they were horrible with 428 yards and 31 points against per game. Talent returns at linebacker, they’ll put up a wall against the run. However, starters at safety will not be returning and the Gators could be vulnerable in the secondary. The defense will be good, though it’s hard to see them being elite.

This is a tough schedule with trips to Kentucky and LSU, and then they have to host Alabama and Georgia. Expect Florida to be an underdog against Alabama and Georgia, while that game against Kentucky looks dangerous. It looks like a spot where Florida could go to Lexington feeling too comfortable. They lose and it’s probably another 8-4 season. With a new quarterback and playmakers starting for Florida, I can’t see them doing better than the Trask and Pitts team.