Clippers vs. Grizzlies: NBA Picks and Predictions

The small-market Memphis Grizzlies have what it takes to beat the NBA odds this Thursday when they host the big-time L.A. Clippers.

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies

Thursday, February 25, 2021 – 8:00 PM ET at FedExForum

Grit ‘N Grind is back. Well, sort of: The Memphis Grizzlies (13-14 SU, 14-13 ATS) still have a lot of work to do in their rebuilding project, but they’re heading in the right direction under second-year head coach Taylor Jenkins, one of the brightest minds in the business. Jenkins has the Grizz playing tough, disciplined basketball, a style more tailored to his team’s abilities than last year’s attempt to “Let It Fly.”

Change is good. Just ask the Los Angeles Clippers (23-10 SU, 19-14 ATS), who look much more title-worthy now that they’ve put the right kind of personnel around Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. That includes head coach Ty Lue, who whispered LeBron James and Kyrie Irving to a championship in Cleveland – an incredible feat given what we’ve seen from Irving since. Incredible, but in this particular situation, we might have to put the Grizzlies in our NBA picks, now that they’ve opened a 7.5-point home dogs at Heritage Sports.

Let There Be Range

This is one of those matchups that gets old-school handicappers all giddy. Markets don’t get much smaller than Memphis, or much larger than Los Angeles; these teams are at opposite ends of the public money charts, so we should expect some market distortion pushing those NBA lines towards the Grizzlies.

Well, what do you know: FiveThirtyEight project the Clippers to win Thursday’s game by four points. Nate Silver isn’t the only quant in town, but he’s kindly offering up his numbers for free, just like our picks here at the home office. I will tell you that four points fall nicely within the range of projections I’m seeing from other, paid-subscription sources. It’s also far away enough from Memphis +7.5 that we can afford to place a chunky bet on the Zombie Grizzlies – using two points as our old-school minimum difference between the NBA odds and the projections.

And Justise For All

It’s too bad, mind you, that Jenkins hasn’t been able to get more development out of Dillon Brooks (minus-5.6 BPM). Brooks has been leaned on pretty heavily for a second-round draft pick, but that’s how bare the cupboard was in Memphis when Jenkins arrived, and Brooks has shown flashes of brilliance. He also gets hurt a lot. Brooks has missed the last three games with a sore right thigh, so there’s a good chance his minutes will go to more productive options on Thursday.

It’ll be interesting as well to see what Jenkins can do with Justise Winslow (minus-14.2 BPM in 47 minutes). Winslow’s first two games since getting traded to Memphis last year were... not good. But we would be remiss in our old-school handicapper duties if we didn’t give Winslow the requisite two games to shake the rust off. He might need more given the length of his absence, so maybe make that bet size a little smaller for now. Keep an eye on Memphis, though. As they say: Buy low, sell high.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies +7.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Grizzlies +7.5(-108)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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