Chiefs vs. Titans Week 7 Picks: Home Underdogs Are Dangerous

Kansas City has struggled and runs into a Tennessee team that is coming off a huge win over the Bills. Find out if we like K.C. as a 5.5-point road favorite in our Week 7 Chiefs and Titans picks.

The Kansas City Chiefs started off the season with weak performances, but they bounced back with a resounding win against the Washington Football Team last week. The offense is back to firing on all cylinders as the Chiefs (2-4 against the spread, 4-2 Over/Under) look to win a tough game as a road favorite.

While the Tennessee Titans have a couple of bad losses on their resume, they also toughed out a win against the Buffalo Bills last week. They’ll be tested again as the Chiefs come to Nashville, but the Titans are 4-2 ATS and 4-2 on O/U bets this season. This game will be fun to watch and really could go either way.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 7 matchup between the Chiefs and Titans on October 24 (odds via FanDuel).

Chiefs vs. Titans Week 7 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, October 24, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Weather: 75 degrees, 64 percent chance of rain

Chiefs vs. Titans Odds

Kansas City is a 5.5-point favorite on the road this weekend. While the line hasn’t shifted, some sportsbooks put -115 odds for the Chiefs to cover over the traditional -110. That means they are predicting the Titans to lose by at least six points. The SBR consensus shows both teams drawing an equal amount of support.

The O/U is set at 57.5, which is easily the highest of the weekend. No other game has a line at 51 or more. The line opened at 55.5 for some sportsbooks, but it has gradually shifted upward.

Chiefs vs. Titans Picks

Titans +5.5 (-110)
Under 57.5 (-110)
Derrick Henry Most Rushing Yards Sunday (+340)

SEE ALSO: Week 7 Parlay Picks

Chiefs vs. Titans Predictions

Titans +5.5 (-110)

The Titans are banged up after playing the Bills last week and that's reflected in the betting line. Kansas City will have to find a way to exploit their injuries, which isn’t as likely as you would think.

The Chiefs have struggled this year. This is mostly because of the talent they’ve faced, but they also have a tough opponent in the Titans.

The injuries are a concern for the Titans, but they still should see plenty of success on offense. Kansas City’s rushing defense is weak, and it will deteriorate over the course of this game.

With winds and rain expected, it will be harder for the Chiefs to win through the air. If this turns into a slugfest on the ground, the Titans could even win this outright.

With KC’s struggle against the spread, expect another close matchup and back the home underdogs.

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Under 57.5 (-110)

The Under is likely to hit for a few reasons. Let’s start with the fact that it is the highest total of the week. Even with Kansas City’s potent offense, both teams would need to approach 30 points for the Over to hit.

The rain will also play a factor in this game. If things get sloppy, turnovers will keep points from being scored. The clock will run as both teams look to win on the ground.

Also, Tennessee wants to slow the pace of the game. It would love to have long drives that end in points and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands. That's far from a guarantee, but it's the best way to get the Under to cash.

Both teams are 4-2 O/U this season, so regression is expected with such a high value.

Derrick Henry Most Rushing Yards Sunday (+325)

Since this prop bet only counts rushing yards for Sunday, you’re taking away the Browns, Broncos, Saints, and Seahawks. Plus, many of the best running backs are either on bye weeks or injured.

Also, Derrick Henry is leading the NFL in rushing yards by a wide margin. He is in midseason form and will likely see a heavy dose of carries against the Chiefs.

Tennessee wants to feed King Henry, and he has what it takes to dominate in the trenches. Against KC’s rushing defense, he should easily hit over 100 yards. He may hit over 150 if things go well.

SEE ALSO: Week 7 Betting Trends to Monitor

Picks made on 10/20/2021 at 12:15 p.m. ET.

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