Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 10 Picks: Fade K.C.

Kansas City has not played great football and is just 2-7 against the spread this season. Find out why we aren’t confident in K.C. covering as 2.5-point road underdogs in our Chiefs and Raiders picks.

The Kansas City Chiefs have struggled this year despite having one of the best offensive units in the NFL. Kansas City (2-7 against the spread) has lost plenty of winnable games, and its wins have been lackluster at best. Turnovers are a concern and the team is sporting a paper-thin defense.

The Raiders Raiders (4-4 ATS) welcome the Chiefs to Allegiant Stadium for Sunday Night Football and still have a chance to make the playoffs. But they need to win more division games to do so and this one is a pivotal matchup for Las Vegas.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 10 matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders (odds via FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5 star scale).

Chiefs vs. Raiders Week 10 Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 14, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Weather: Indoors

Chiefs vs. Raiders Odds Analysis

Kansas City opened as a 2.5-point favorite against the Raiders despite being on the road. Some sportsbooks have shifted the value of the spread, but you can still find most holding the 2.5-point number.

The Over/Under opened at 51.5 points. It shifted up to 52.5, but it has since moved back down to 52 points exactly. Some still have it at 52.5, but they require more money on the Under for the same payout. The Chiefs used to get some of the highest totals in the NFL, but their struggles offensively have limited that in recent weeks. Still, they have a 4-5 O/U mark. Our Chiefs and Raiders picks are backing the 52.5 Under but the SBR consensus shows the majority of bettors favoring the Over.

Chiefs vs. Raiders Picks

Raiders +2.5 (-104) ★★
Under 52.5 (-114) ★★★

SEE ALSO: Top Sunday Night Football Prop Picks

Chiefs vs. Raiders Predictions

Raiders +2.5 (-104)

If we’re being honest, I don’t feel great about this pick. However, the value on the other side of the spread was not there. You had to place a bet worth $118 to return $100, which is closer to a moneyline value than a spread pick.

Still, there's a chance of the Raiders winning this one at home. At the very least, they could bring it down to the final possession. In divisional games, teams are used to what their opponents do.

The Raiders have had plenty of distractions in recent weeks, but they also have a great leader at quarterback. Their offensive line has improved over the course of the season (which isn’t saying much), and they should be able to attack the Chiefs’ passing defense.

There are still concerns, however. It will be harder for Derek Carr to push the ball down the field without Henry Ruggs, and there are plenty of off-the-field issues with this team.

But with no value on the other side of this bet, I’m sticking with Las Vegas to cover in our Chiefs and Raiders picks.

Under 52.5 (-114)

The value isn’t ideal, but this game is still likely to hit the Under. In the past, Kansas City was able to attack any defense and score with ease. Now it turns the ball over often and has struggled to get Travis Kelce involved.

There's a blueprint for stopping the Chiefs, and the Raiders have used it before. It will be hard for them to get pressure without blitzing, but they should be able to drop plenty of people into coverage. If the Chiefs can’t consistently run the ball, they will be unable to score a ton of points.

On the other side of the ball, Las Vegas will look to run consistently. The Raiders will chew clock and lower the number of total drives, and both of these things are positives for the Under hitting.

While both defenses have weaknesses, I don’t see this one turning into a barnburner. I don’t like the value, but it remains likely that turnovers and run games will take over this game and cause the Under to cash.

SEE ALSO: Week 10 Expert Prop Picks

Picks made on 11/11/2021 at 6:51 p.m. ET.

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