Chiefs vs. Buccaneers: Super Bowl 2021 Last Chance Value Picks

Super Bowl weekend is here and there is precious little time to make our last chance value picks. Let’s determine if there is any significant fluctuation in the lines and, if so, take advantage of that in our NFL picks!

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Bucs

Sunday, February 7, 2020 – 6:30 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium

According to the Madden ’21 NFL simulator, the final score for this titanic matchup between a young superstar in Patrick Mahomes versus the undisputed GOAT, Tom Brady, shows the Chiefs prevailing, 37-27. Oh, and as long as we’re revealing the video game’s Super Bowl LV predictions, you should know that Patrick Mahomes also takes home his second consecutive Super Bowl MVP Award.

Well, it would be nice if we could take all of that to the bank and blindly tail Madden ’21 to cash with Kansas City laying the lumber and Patrick Mahomes bringing home the Super Bowl MVP hardware, who incidentally is the favorite at -115 over at BetOnline. But this is why they play the games on the field and not on paper. That spherical orb takes weird bounces and unexpected things happen that can change the course of the game.

Before we check out the Super Bowl odds one last time this season, let’s also remember that just because Sunday is the biggest football game of the season doesn’t mean your wager should be as well. On a regular football Sunday, we have 12 to 16 games on the slate, and even with all of those options, it can be difficult to narrow down one major betting opportunity.

For example, in my weekly Swinger’s Picks column, where I release my best bets on the NFL board, I use a 1-to-5-unit scale with most of my wagers either two or three units. Only twice all season, did I release a five-unit play and fortunately, both of them won. Entering Sunday, I am up nearly 36 units courtesy of a 62.7 ATS winning percentage.

However, I had the luxury of scanning the board, picking and choosing from at least a dozen sides and totals. However, now we are down to one game, and unless you honestly have a strong opinion on either the Chiefs or the Bucs, don’t manufacture an opinion. You will regret it. I know, I’ve done it, but I’m older and wiser…well, older anyway.

Pros and Cons

The conventional wisdom from those who espouse the Chiefs as the sharp side is that their offense will be too much for the Tampa Bay defense to contain. That’s pretty much the length and breadth of their case as the notion that the Bucs could match them score for score is dismissed as preposterous.

However, those who believe Tampa Bay is the side that will cash advance the theory that their run-stop unit will effectively turn the Chiefs into a one-dimensional passing offense. This would allow the Bucs tighter coverage and double teams without having to worry about long-gainers from the Kansas City tailbacks.

They will also point to Tom Brady’s historic 10th Super Bowl appearance and his unmatched six Super Bowl rings. And lastly, the Chiefs will be operating without their top left tackle, Eric Fisher, who ruptured his Achilles in the AFC Championship. And now Mike Remmers, who was filling in for starting right tackle Mitchell Schwartz, is suddenly thrust into the starting role as Mahomes’ blindside protector in the biggest game of the year. That’s no small task.

Wanna Make a Bet?

If we peruse the line on this game at all of the best online sportsbooks, we can see that most of the majors are standing pat with the Chiefs -3 with the vig ranging from -115 to -120 on the favorite. However, there is one book taking a bold stand and dealing Kansas City at -3.5 with the dog -120.

The half-point on the magic number 3 is the most important hook in football. As you know, many games are decided by a field goal, and having that extra nudge to get you across the finish line can be enormous. But in this game, I believe the oddsmakers have the wrong favorite.

However, I am never so confident as to eschew the points, particularly when we are getting 3.5 with the greatest quarterback ever to lace them up, the best run-defense, and arguably the best arsenal of pass-catchers in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and Cameron Brate, all playing at home for the Super Bowl! It’s the first time a Super Bowl participant has played in its own stadium for the big game, and wouldn’t you know, another first for Tom Terrific.

So, take my advice and keep your wager sensible. There will be other games to bet so enjoy yourself and bet the Bucs at +3.5 (-120) on Sunday.

NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Bucs +3.5 (-120) at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)

Tampa Bay +3.5(-120)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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