Cardinals vs. Dodgers Odds, Preview, Prediction: Target the Total With Trevor Bauer Facing Jack Flaherty (Monday, May 31)

It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers are among the best in the National League.

The Dodgers might be in third place in the NL West, but they are only 2 1/2 games behind the first-place Padres after getting swept by the Giants over the weekend. That’s no concern for Los Angeles, which has arguably baseball’s best lineup and several more-than-reliable starting pitchers.

The Cardinals (30-23), meanwhile, are in first place in the NL Central, one-half game ahead of the Cubs and two up on the Brewers. Dodger Stadium isn’t necessarily where division leads go to grow, though.

Trevor Bauer is slated to start on Monday night for the Dodgers, who are predictably heavily favored. Additionally, the run total is set at only 6.5 with Jack Flaherty pitching for the Cardinals.

From a betting angle there are two questions worth asking for Monday: Do the Dodgers deserve to be such big favorites, and is the run total too low?

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Flaherty off To Winning Start in 2021

Unofficially, Jack Flaherty is one of DJ Khaled’s favorite pitchers because all he does is win.

Flaherty has an 8-1 record this season after 10 starts. Additionally, he has a 2.84 ERA and is averaging more than 5 2/3 innings per start.

However, Flaherty is a little more vulnerable than he appears. He enters this start with an xFIP of 4.04, which is more than a full run higher than his ERA. Over his career, Flaherty has never had an xFIP below 3.42 in a season. He is certainly a strong pitcher and should regress to the mean over the course of the season.

Backing Flaherty up is a decent Cardinals lineup that is averaging 4.37 runs per game, right around what the average MLB team is this season at 4.33. According to my model, this is not a surprise since the Cards should be scoring 4.3 runs per game.

In baseball, average can typically be fine. Outside of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, virtually every player in the Cardinals lineup is close to the league average offensively. With a well-rounded lineup, St. Louis can still produce runs when their best players are having a bad day.

Bauer Has Carried Over Cy Young Form

Bauer has done well over the last two seasons. Last year, he had a 1.73 ERA and won the NL Cy Young Award. This year, he has picked up right where he left off with a 5-3 record and 2.07 ERA while averaging 6 1/3 innings per start. As a result, bettors must pay an even bigger premium on the Dodgers when he starts.

However, if you look below the surface, Bauer is not an automatic lock to keep runs off the scoreboard. While Bauer had a 1.73 ERA last season, he had a 3.25 xFIP. This season, he has a 2.07 ERA and 3.41 xFIP. He may only allow about two runs per nine innings, but based on how he has pitched over the past two years, he should be allowing more than three per nine.

In addition to Bauer, one reason why Los Angeles is a heavy favorite is its lineup. The Dodgers average 5.17 runs per game, which is the second best in MLB and tops in the National League. The likes of Mookie Betts, Justin Turner, Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger and Will Smith make the Dodgers’ lineup a tough out against any pitcher in baseball.

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Cardinals-Dodgers Pick

My model gives a slight edge to the Dodgers moneyline based on the strength of their lineup and pitching. However, I see the biggest betting edge on the over.

Both lineups combine to average 9.57, which is more than three runs more than the total.

I am not sure how long BetMGM will leave up their 6.5 run total, but I like it right now at -115 and would bet it up to -125. However, if the run total is raised to seven runs closer to first pitch, I would bet over seven runs at +100 or better.

Pick: Over 6.5 Runs -115 (play up to -125)

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