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Breaking Down The Bubble On Selection Sunday: Who’s In? Who’s Out?

March 15, 2021
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There are a lot of great two word phrases in sports. Game seven. Opening day. Super Bowl. But for me, no two words in sports are any better than Selection Sunday! Selection Sunday is the day that the NCAA Selection Committee announces the seeds for the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. It is the day that Cinderella gets their slippers, and where the hopes and dreams of thousands of college hoops fans are dashed when they don’t hear their team’s names called.

This year, the Selection Committee will have the toughest job that they have ever had. With COVID-19 wreaking havoc throughout college hoops, we have seen games canceled, season’s shortened, and Blue Blood programs shutdown. How will the committee evaluate teams like St. Bonaventure or Saint Louis that didn’t play full seasons, compared to, say, a Minnesota team that played a brutal schedule all year, and while they have a ton of quality victories, the losses stacked up too? In this article, we are going to break down the bubble before the official brackets are announced later today and tell you five teams that should be in and five teams that should be out. Let’s get started!

Five Teams That Should Be In

In this first section, we are going to break down five teams that I think deserve to get their dance cards punched later today. If these teams don’t hear their names called this afternoon, they all have legitimate gripes of being snubbed.

VCU Rams (19-6)

ESPN’s Chief Bracketologist Joe Lunardi has VCU getting in as a 10 seed right now. But the Rams play later today against the Bonnies of St. Bonaventure, and in if they lose, they could slide to the wrong side of the bubble. But I think the Rams deserve to get in no matter what happens today in the A-10 finals. The same could be said for the Bonnies, as Lunardi has them as a 10 seed as well, and a loss could end their season. I have a feeling St. Bonaventure is getting in win or lose, so while I think both teams deserve to dance, I will focus more of VCU.

The Rams wish they had late-season games against Davidson and George Mason back, as they lost two of their final three regular season games, and that early-season loss to Rhode Island is an ugly blemish as well, but to me, getting into the NCAA tournament should be about who you have beaten, more than who you have lost to. Who cares if a team goes 25-2 with all of their wins coming over teams ranked outside of the national top-300? I want to see teams in the tournament that can beat quality teams, and VCU has done just that. The Rams have top-100 wins over Davidson, Dayton, Saint Louis, Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Memphis, and Utah State. I see VCU losing today, as I think the Bonnies are criminally underrated right now, but VCU is still worthy of an at-large bid even with the loss.

Drake Bulldogs (25-4)

There is something to be said about a team that just knows how to win basketball games, and the Drake Bulldogs are winners. While lots of people will trash the Bulldogs for playing a bad strength of schedule, in reality, that just isn’t true, as Drake has an SOS of 157th, which isn’t elite, but it is right in line with other mid-major bubble teams like Toledo, Colorado State, Buffalo, and Boise State. Drake has four wins over the top-100, including a huge win over 9th ranked Loyola-Chicago. Colorado State, a team that most people are projecting to be in the field of 68, has just three wins over the top-100 and no wins over the top-10.

Two of the Bulldog’s four losses have come to Loyola Chicago, and while people like to cut them down for those losses to the Ramblers, you don’t see power conference fans saying that Iowa sucks just because they lost to Illinois, Michigan, or Ohio State, do you? The analytics might be a little bit shaky for Drake, but they absolutely pass the eye test as they can play ball, and they finished the season with the 14th highest average margin of victory in the nation. Teams like Drake that are capable of busting brackets are what makes March Madness so maddening, and I think the Bulldogs deserve a shot to shock the world.

UCLA Bruins (17-9)

What a strange season it has been for UCLA this year. They came into the season as the favorites to win the PAC-12 regular season title, and when they jumped out to an 8-0 record in league play, it looked like they would run away with the league crown. But the second half of the season hasn’t gone well for Mick Cronin’s Bruins, as they went 5-7 down the stretch and they hit Selection Sunday on a 4-game losing streak. That rough run has UCLA sitting right at the cut line, and Bruin’s fans are wondering what went wrong?

UCLA is getting a lot of hate with their bad finish, but I still think they are solidly a tournament-level team. They played an SOS of 55th, and as bad as people want to say that the PAC-12 is this year, and it isn’t great, it is still a power conference, and the Bruins 13-6 conference record should be more than enough to get them into the tournament. Even this current losing streak is at least somewhat explainable as two of those games came on the road at Oregon and Colorado, and the final loss of the regular season came against a USC Trojans team that will be playing next weekend. Even the loss to Oregon State looks better looking back as the Beavers caught fire and ended up winning the PAC-12 conference tournament. Cronin is a proven winner in March, and I want to see the Bruins dancing.

Michigan State Spartans (15-12)

To me, the Michigan State Spartans shouldn’t even really be a bubble team, but when I see USA Today’s bracket prediction this morning putting the Spartans as an 11 seed, I know that most people see Sparty sitting right on the edge. The Spartans have played the 8th toughest schedule in the country, and the fact that they managed to navigate that nasty schedule and still finished with a winning record, should be plenty to get them in. Something that we know for a fact that the Selection Committee takes into account, is how well a team is playing late in the season, and I am not sure any team in the country had a better finish to the season than Michigan State.

The Spartans picked up wins over Indiana (twice), Illinois, Michigan, and Ohio State. The wins over the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Illini were all top-10 wins, and the two wins over Indiana likely knocked the Hoosiers out of the at-large bid conversation, opening up another spot for Michigan State. The Big 10 is the best conference in the country, and I think that they deserve to get a lot of bids today. Can you make a case for teams that ended up with a losing record like Penn State, Minnesota, and Indiana? Maybe not. But the other Big 10 bubble teams, squads like Michigan State, Maryland, and Rutgers, should all get in based on the strength of the league alone.

Louisville Cardinals (13-7)

Louisville had a good week this week, even though they got knocked out early in the ACC tournament by Duke. The Cardinals saw several teams they have wins over this season perform well in their conference tournaments, thus raising the Cardinal’s resume. If I had to pick the very last team getting into the field, I would take this Louisville team. Georgia Tech improbably won the ACC tournament, and Louisville’s 16-point drubbing of the Yellow Jackets in February is looking that much better. People were criticizing the Cardinal’s lack of a non-conference schedule, but after seeing both Prairie View A&M and Western Kentucky make their respective conference tournament finals, that non-conference record isn’t looking all that bad right now.

The other thing that is breaking in Louisville’s direction is the fact that the ACC got hammered with COVID-19 outbreaks at the end of the year. Duke shut down their program last week after beating the Cardinal’s and Virginia had an outbreak as well, and although the Cavs haven’t thrown in the towel just yet, they probably won’t have a choice as the entire team must test negative for the next seven days to qualify to play. The ACC is down this season, there is no doubt about that, but with Duke and Virginia out of the picture, that leaves the league with just 4-5 teams looking like locks for the tournament, and they always end up getting more teams than that into the Big Dance. Louisville will get in, and they just might do some damage once they get there.

Five Teams That Should Be Out

In this final section, we are going to look at the teams that are about to have their hearts broken. With teams like Georgetown and Oregon State winning their conference tournaments last night and sealing bids, the bubble has been shrinking, and these are the teams that are feeling that pain.

Colorado State Rams (18-6)

We already talked about how the Rams don’t have a lot of meat on the bone when it comes to quality victories, and I feel like the entire Mountain West Conference is getting far too much love right now. There are four teams that are being considered for NCAA tournament bids playing out of the MVC, with San Diego State snagging the auto-bid with the conference tournament title last night. But when I take a closer look at this league, I just don’t see any way that it is a league deserving of four bids. I’m not sure they should even get three!

Kenpom ranks the MVC as the 10th best conference in the country right now, just slightly above the Missouri Valley, a league that could be a one-bid league this season if Drake doesn’t get in, and just behind leagues like the A-10, WCC, and AAC that won’t come close to getting four bids. Of those top four teams in the MVC, the Rams have lost to all of them, and their loss to Nevada to end the regular season was a brutal blow to their at-large bid dreams. I saw the semifinals game between Utah State and Colorado State as a loser’s out game, and Colorado State lost, so they are out.

Boise State Broncos (18-8)

For all of the same reasons that I don’t have Colorado State getting in, I don’t see the Boise State Broncos dancing either. Boise State was the belle of the ball out west earlier this year when they ran their record up to 13-1 and made their debut in the top-25 of the AP Poll. But since then, the Broncos have suffered some losses that I just don’t think they can overcome. Boise lost to Nevada three times, including early in the MVC tournament, and if that weren’t enough, they lost their regular season finale to an awful Fresno State team ranked 187th on Kenpom, at home no less!

Boise State is on a four-game losing streak, and if they get in, it will be a travesty. The MVC is barely a two-bid league, in my opinion, as you could make a case that no team outside of San Diego State really has done enough to get into the tournament. Boise State went 5-7 in their last 12 games, and they are out!

Syracuse Orange (16-9)

Sorry Syracuse fans, but the Orange are out! With all of the late-season drama in the ACC, it opened up spots for the ACC bubble teams like Syracuse, Louisville, Clemson, ad NC State. But there isn’t room for all of those teams, as the league just wasn’t very good this season. I already mentioned that I see Louisville getting in, and I also think Clemson hears their names called this afternoon. That means NC State and Syracuse are going to end up on the outside looking in for the NCAA tournament. If you had to point to one thing keeping Syracuse out of the tournament, it was their two losses to Pittsburgh that stick out as really bad ones. The Panthers were 4-10 against the rest of the ACC, and those losses are going to haunt Jim Boeheim when they get left out later today.

Syracuse has a non-conference win over Georgetown that is looking a lot better today than it did yesterday, after seeing the Hoyas win the Big East tournament, but the Orange are seriously lacking in the signature win department. Three of Syracuse’s wins came over NC State, and shockingly, the Orange only have one win this season over an ACC team that is a lock to make the NCAA tournament, with a win over North Carolina in early March. Syracuse has too many wins over teams like NC State, Miami, Boston College, and Notre Dame and no wins over top ACC teams like Virginia, Duke, Florida State, or Georgia Tech.

Wichita State Shockers (16-5)

The Shockers of Wichita State are going to be done in by the analytics this year. Wichita currently ranks 74th on Kenpom, right above teams like Mississippi State, Providence, and Saint Mary’s, teams that aren’t even getting a whisper of their name’s mentioned in the at-large bid conversation. That ranking also comes in well behind other teams like Richmond, Auburn, Davidson, Minnesota, and Kentucky, and none of those teams are in the mix either. The Shockers seemingly caught a break when Cincinnati upset SMU in the AAC tournament, giving the Wichita a clear path to the finals. But then they turned around and lost to the Bearcats, snapping their 8-game winning streak.

Wichita has a huge win over Houston that they are hanging their hat on being enough to get them in, but outside of that win, there isn’t a lot to like on this Shocker’s resume. Wichita is 2-4 against the top-100 this year, with the win over Houston and a win over an Ole Miss team that probably won’t be playing in the NCAA tournament either. Had the Shockers beaten Cincy and hit the AAC finals on a 9-game winning streak and then lost to a very good Houston team, I might have put them in. But instead, they lost to the 110th ranked Bearcats, and it is going to cost them their dancing shoes.

Saint Louis Billikens (14-6)

You can list the Saint Louis Billikens as just another casualty of the COVID-19 pandemic. With several COVID-19 related delays this season, the Billikens just didn’t get a lot of chances to play, and they only ended up with 20 games played this year. They were somewhat impressive in those 20 games, with a respectable 14 wins, including wins over St. Bonaventure, Richmond, and LSU. But with so few opportunities for signature wins, they just don’t have enough on their resume to be seriously considered. Lunardi has the Billikens in the first four out as of this morning, and Billikens fans are going to be rooting for St. Bonaventure and Houston today, as they need to fade potential bid vulturing wins by VCU and Cincinnati if they have any shot to get in.

It has been a hard-luck season for the Billikens, and losses to Dayton (twice), Minnesota, and 194th ranked La Salle are games they wish they had back. Of their six losses on the year, none of them came against teams that are considered locks to make the NCAA tournament. That just isn’t a good look when the field is so tightly packed right now. The Selection Committee likes to look at who you have beaten and who you have lost to, and sadly for the Billikens, they don’t have an overlay strong case for either of those arguments with a lack of signature wins and a couple of bad losses. If Saint Louis had six or seven more games to pick up wins, they could have gotten a shot to dance, but they didn’t, and they are going to miss out on the madness.

Wrap Up

Selection Sunday is finally here! After a long and winding road of a regular season and some action-packed conference tournaments, we finally get to see which teams are heading to the bubble in Indy to compete for the college hoops national championship. Here we have given a preview of what the field should look like, and as soon as those brackets are locked in, make sure you check out TheSportsGeek’s NCAA March Madness bracket challenge, where we are giving away cash, cars, and prizes with guaranteed payouts!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/breaking-down-the-bubble-on-selection-sunday-whos-in-whos-out/

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