Braves vs. Padres: In Your Face

The San Diego Padres have imploded, making the Atlanta Braves the likely MLB pick this Friday at Petco Park.

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres

Friday, September 24, 2021 – 10:05 PM ET at Petco Park

Was Manny Machado being a bad teammate, or was he just giving Fernando Tatis Jr. some tough love? That depends on your outlook, but whatever the case, the San Diego Padres are in free fall. Their playoff chances have dwindled to virtually zero after a prolonged slump; life won’t get any easier this Friday when the Fathers welcome the Atlanta Braves to town for the first of a three-game set. That’s the National League East-leading Atlanta Braves, who will be sending Max Fried (3.45 FIP) to the mound for this matchup.

Unfortunately, we’re not sure yet at press time whom the Padres have in mind for their starter. Before things get underway, they have to complete the July 21 game with Atlanta that got suspended in the middle of the fifth inning because of rain; the Padres were up 5-4 at that point. It won’t be Yu Darvish for either game, since he pitched Thursday against the San Francisco Giants, but someone’s gotta do it, and it better be someone good if they’re going to beat the overseas MLB lines as -125 home faves for their regularly scheduled contest.

Saturday Night’s Main Event

The Machado Incident wasn’t the beginning of the end for San Diego, but it did expose the raw nerves in their dugout. It all went down Saturday night at Petco Park; the Padres were playing the St. Louis Cardinals, Tatis struck out looking, argued the call, and manager Jayce Tingler was ejected when he came out to support his No. 1 hitter. Then Machado got up in Tatis’ grill. “It’s not about you,” he yelled, along with some other choice words not fit for print. San Diego ended up losing 3-2 to complete the sweep after coughing up a 2-0 lead.

Machado and Tatis said all the right things to the media afterward, but in a way, this team is all about Tatis (.992 OPS). He’s by far the best bat in the Padres lineup, which ranks a disappointing 13th overall in hitting at 18.4 WAR according to FanGraphs. Machado (.840 OPS) is doing his part, of course, and 2B Jake Cronenworth (.806 OPS) made the All-Star team as a sophomore, but none of their other regulars has an OPS above .750 this year. San Diego’s pitching has been mediocre, too, both in the rotation and in the bullpen. This is not a playoff team.

The Braves, on the other hand, are a virtual lock to qualify. And FiveThirtyEight have them at 51 percent to win Friday’s game, using a generic place-holder starter for San Diego. The Padres simply don’t have any pitchers available who are rated highly enough make them more than a very slight favorite at best, so if Atlanta are priced accordingly when the MLB odds are posted at our preferred online sportsbooks, make sure you jump on board. It’s a moral imperative.

MLB Pick: Braves -1.5 (+125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Braves -1.5(+125)

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*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.

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