Braves vs. Astros Game 6 World Series Picks: Can Atlanta Clinch a Title?

The Braves lead the World Series 3-2, and they’ll send Max Fried to the hill for what’s probably their best shot at clinching the title. With the Astros’ bullpen taxed, could this be the night for Atlanta? Here are our World Series picks for Game 6.

The Braves took Game 1 of this series in convincing fashion to grab home-field advantage away from the Astros, and then Houston responded with a dominant 7-2 win in Game 2. After that, it was all Atlanta. The Braves triumphed during a pair of thrilling low-scoring games, with only three runs separating the two teams.

Houston then responded with a massive offensive performance in a 9-5 Game 5 victory. It featured two comebacks — the first from being 4-0 down after the Braves’ Adam Duvall hit a first-inning grand slam.

Here are my picks and predictions for Tuesday’s MLB World Series matchup between the Astros and the Braves (Odds via DraftKings, and pick is confidence based on a one-to-five star scale).

Braves vs. Astros Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, November 2, 8:09 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX

Braves vs. Astros Odds Analysis

The Braves opened around +101, and since then all the money in the world has come in on the Astros. They’ve gone from -119 to -140 at some books.

Money has also unsurprisingly come in on the Over after the high-scoring Game 5, with many sportsbooks offering a total of 9.

Braves vs. Astros Betting Picks

Braves ML (+120) ★★★★★
Over 8.5 (-120) ★★★

Braves vs. Astros Predictions

Braves ML (+120)

I’m on the record as a Luis Garcia hater, and the hurler likely won't convince me Tuesday night that he’s anything but a liability for Houston. The Astros’ bullpen has now worked 72.1 innings this postseason, and it won’t benefit from the luxury of getting some innings from the club's starters in relief as many teams often do during the postseason.

Zack Greinke has been a disaster since coming off the COVID-19 list, and Jose Urquidy just threw in Game 5 (not that he's a great option anyway). The Astros have leaned heavily on Cristian Javier, who has been fantastic all year. But he seems to be feeling the effects of working so much this postseason. The right-hander allowed two homers during his team's Game 4 loss.

Garcia has been allowing fly balls like crazy, with 14 given up across his last two starts over nine innings. Minute Maid Park is great for hitters, and it also ranked second in home-run-to-fly-ball ratio this season. The circumstances aren't ideal for Garcia in Game 6, and behind him there’s little left in the Astros' bullpen.

Toss in Fried starting, and there's a path to victory for Atlanta. Fried’s fastball has historically been a great pitch, and he should lean on it against a Houston team that ranks just 10th in weighted runs per 100 fastballs, and ninth against curveballs.

Over 8.5 (-120)

Fried likely won't make it out unscathed against the best offense in baseball, and the top-ranked unit against lefties. And Garcia giving up fewer than two runs over his first two innings is just as unlikely.

This game should turn into a slugfest, with the Astros getting off to a disastrous start before mounting a comeback in an effort to save their season.

Picks made 11/2/2021 at 1:10 p.m. ET

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