Aljamain Sterling Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan 2 Best Sports Picks petr yan UFC Betting UFC betting picks

Betting Odds and Predictions for Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling 2

March 16, 2021
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I have quite a bit to get off my chest about how the first fight ended, but more so, who said what and why after the fight. Whether or not a fighter should continue after an illegal blow is a hot topic at the moment, so why not try to make sense of each side of the argument.

This past weekend, there was even more controversy in not just the main event that ended in a no contest from an eye poke but also in the Eryk Anders vs Darren Stewart fight. Ya Boi kneed Darren the Dentist to the head while he was clearly down and not even in the process of getting up.

They ruled it a no contest, though, or a no decision was the specific ruling that I heard. But why? But how? Well, Herb Dean said that Eryk’s knee wasn’t intentional while referee Mark Smith ruled that the knee thrown by Petr Yan was intentional.

I know these referees have some power but the level of arrogance is getting up there. It isn’t often that they admit when they were wrong but for Herb to say the knee was unintentional is ludicrous.

Is he a mind reader now? A clinical psychologist? One guy is standing. The other is clearly down on the mat. One guy blasts the martial artist on the mat with a knee to the head but it wasn’t intentional.

I can’t make sense of it. Referees are unpredictable and so are the judges! Don’t let me get started on how they didn’t score round 3 for Manel Kape on Saturday night. We had him (+300) to win a decision and the man was robbed!

I shouldn’t complain, though. The referees in mixed martial arts bouts have far less effect on the outcome of the fights and thus our bets than those in basketball, baseball, and football. Maybe that’s why I prefer to predict MMA, boxing, golf, and NASCAR because the influence the referee has is minimal at best compared to the big three.

I have always hated refs. I will never forget screaming at the television as an awkward tween “They’re cheating” regarding the NBA referees in a Knicks game. He assured me they were not cheating.

Well, well, pops.
Turns out one of those refs was a cheater and where there’s one cockaroach, you will always find more cockaroaches. I have to give it up to the folks who can consistently pick winners with double digits ROI’s in basketball and football.

I feel like we have the easier sport here with MMA and this is still a neverending evergrowing gigantic challenge that seems to get more difficult with practice.

Speaking of challenges, Aljamain Sterling has a seemingly much greater challenge ahead of him in the rematch with Russia’s Petr Yan. They don’t call Yan “No Mercy” for nothing as he hit Aljo with the knee heard round the MMA world a couple of weeks ago at UFC 259.

Petr Yan Illegal Knee

Aljamain, at no fault of his own, lost the respect from a lot of his peers and now he has to shake all of that off, recover from a concussion, and then try to beat the guy who was in all likelihood going to defeat him in their first meeting.

The betting line for the first fight opened as a pick ‘em and even moved in the favor of Sterling by fight time putting him somewhere around (-120) in most MMA online sportsbooks. Well, Petr Yan won’t be priced so generously this time around, unfortunately.

BetOnline.AG has the Russian as a significant favorite against Aljamain Sterling.

Petr Yan (-270) vs Aljamain Sterling (+230)

Man, Sterling never settled into the first fight between these two. He came out of the gate in the first round hot and Yan started fairly slow. Both strategies were expected.

He was placing his shots and appeared to have a lot of nervous energy, and that kind of energy doesn’t last very long, especially when a guy as ferocious as Petr Yan starts to walk you down. That nervous energy can turn into panic pretty rapidly, and from there, it’s a pointy rock embedded highway directly down the side of the mountain.

That is the way this fight was playing out.

Aljo was in a bad position on his butt with Petr standing over him. On the street or in PRIDE, you get your head kicked off Brazilian futbol style.

Inside of the Octagon, though, you are fairly safe from devastating strikes, but if you choose to stand up, you know you’re likely going to have to eat at least one hard shot.

Yan never really gave Aljo the chance to make a mistake there because he made his own and it cost him a win bonus but also his UFC Bantamweight World Title.

Here is my gripe with Petr Yan. He was already coming out and talking trash about Sterling, saying he was faking it or at least being overly dramatic in order for the referee or doctor to call a halt to the contest.

This is Yan’s fault and nobody else’s. He said his cornermen told him to do it. First of all, Yan is the world champion of this sport, a sport that doesn’t have very many rules. It is his job to not only know said rules but to have them ingrained into his psyche.

Secondly, if his cornermen told him to do that, then he picked some bad cornermen and guess whose fault that is. Bueller…

Referee Mark Smith didn’t poop the bed. Aljamain Sterling didn’t go poopy either. Yan screwed this up, and I still haven’t seen the guy own up to it.

With all of that being said, though, it’s going to be darn near deathly difficult to bet against Petr Yan in his rematch with Sterling.

The sportsbooks agree with us as Petr is nearly a 3 to 1 favorite over the champion Aljamain Sterling.

Let’s break this thing down round by round because the styles of the two men are opposites. I believe that will give us a better assessment and betting odds handicap of our own heading into their UFC Bantamweight World Title fight.

Round 1

I think Aljo will come out and look to score early and often with a varied striking attack, much like he did in the first fight. Hopefully, for him, he will be more relaxed and while being aggressive and throwing with volume, also letting the fight come to him a little bit.

25 minutes is too long to be this mega athletic computer that never gets tired.

That is unless you’re former UFC Bantamweight World Champion TJ Dillashaw on performance enhancer EPO.

His suspension is up, and I think he might be the next challanger for the winner of this fight. If he fights Yan, wow, that is going to be a good one. If it’s Aljo, then I have TJ all day for the same reasons that I like Petr Yan in the rematch with Sterling.

The biggest reason is that both men are more powerful and effective strikers at doing damage than Aljamain and they have the wrestling to keep the fight on the feet. Back to the first round, though. I got a little excited talking about the return of the snake TJ Dillashaw to the UFC’s Bantamweight Division.

There is the possibility that Sterling doesn’t want to gas himself out so he turns down the volume if you will early on so that he has the ability to stick with Yan when that train gets going down the stretch. He is more like a snowball on an old cartoon. There is more speed and destruction as the seconds and minutes pass until there is nothing left in its path to smesh. He wants guys to come out hot in the first round even though he knows he will probably lose the round and also take some damage himself.

That is how he fought Jose Aldo who won the first two rounds. One judge had Aljo winning the first two rounds. Yan wants that so what do you do? Do you stand back and let the guy come to you?

I don’t think so. The answer is you need to have enough cardio to go five hard rounds and also press forward for the majority of the fight taking Petr out of his game. It’s not only that, though. Sterling has to keep the striking volume high.

He can’t trade with Petr and he cannot afford to let the Russian build momentum on his front foot. Easier said than done, I know, but to beat a world champion caliber fighter in the UFC today, you almost have to do everything right.

Petr Yan is really really good. I think even though the online sportsbooks have Sterling as a (+230) underdog which denotes an implied probability of 30.3%, they believe he will once again take round 1.

The path to victory is there and the blueprint is out on what to do to defeat Petr Yan. He is likely going to give away the first two rounds so throw with volume but don’t sweat the bad intentions, at least not yet. Hopefully, you can keep some pop in your shots to match him when he inevitably turns up the thermostat.

Aljamain Sterling wins the first round.

Round 2

I want to give Sterling round two as well but I think Yan is going to be more confident heading into the rematch with Aljo is going to have a hard time convincing himself that he feels the same way.

Why do I bring up the confidence now?

Well, Yan usually waits until almost the third round to start to push the pace and let his hands and legs go but since these two have now already fought each other and it was recent, he may cut the bull malarky and go for the kill early.

Giving away the first two rounds, though, is pretty risky against anyone. You could do something really silly like knee them in the face while they are clearly on the mat but this time, get a point deducted.

Two judges gave Yan the 2nd round in the first meeting but let’s say that 2 of the three judges would have given Sterling the round. This means that Yan could have won the final 3 and still lost, providing Sterling continued and Yan was deducted a point.

I beileve Sterling will come out busy again but with less nerves and his tank will probably last longer than it did the first time around when he seemed to gas out late in the third.

Please Note:
25 minutes is a long time to fight and when you have a Russian stalking you for the second half of it, the picture of success in your head slowly shapeshifts into 4 walls that are closing in just like the movies except this time, there is no magic button or illegal knee that is going to save you.

Well, if Petr did it once, I suppose he could do it again. Please don’t, though. I feel like everyone looks bad here from the doctor to the referee to the cornermen to Sterling and, of course, to Yan.

It was such an unfortunate ending to that fight but I am glad for Sterling that he gets another opportunity in a world title fight. With Henry Cejudo and TJ Dillashaw coming back along with a growing list of contenders at 135 pounds, it was probably going to be a while before he got another title shit if ever.

I think Sterling nips round two in the rematch.

It will probably be close but he proved to himself that he can strike with the guy. He just can’t gas out doing so. Taking Yan down looked like it wasn’t going to happen in the first fight so that’s why I haven’t mentioned it.

Sterling could steal some time in the clinch, though, so I will give him round two as well.

Round 3

This is about when things are likely going to go downhill for Aljamain Sterling in his rematch versus Petr Yan.

Petr picks up the pace as the fight goes on, and he is going to be approaching full speed in round 3. I think he can crack Sterling with something over the top and drop him as he did in the first fight.

It’s all about the front foot, though, and Yan is all front foot in the third. Much like the first fight, I see Petr Yan putting it on Sterling in the third round.

He wins the round very clearly and maybe even a 10-8.

Round 4

This is when the first fight ended. Well, it was nearly round 5 when Yan did his best Plaxico Burress impression and shot himself in the.

We had a betting play on the fight to go over 3.5 rounds and it did but it was a bit of a sweat getting there as the round total lived up to the affordable (-130) betting odds. There were a couple of instances where Yan could have gotten Sterling out of there had he had one more well placed shot but Aljo showed a lot of heart continuing to look for ways to win.

The cartoon snowball is simply too big and is turning over too fast for you to stand your ground and try to bring it to a halt. Your best chance at victory at this point is going to be walking Yan into something.

You can’t beat his strength with yours or you would have already at this point so you have to let him beat himself. Use that strength, that forward pressure against him. Sterling does not have KO power in his hands but I promise you if he runs Yan into a clean right hand or a check left hook with as hard as the Russian presses forward, he can drop him.

With all that said, though, I think the rematch is going to play out in a similar fashion. This time, though, no illegal knees or eye pokes or groin shots or fish hooking. Okay, guys? Not even an oil check!

I think Yan puts Sterling away in the 4th. I wouldn’t go after that over 3.5 rounds again. We were fortunate to get it the first time. I believe Petr will be more confident in his takedown defense and press even harder when the time is right.

The (-270) price tag, though…What to do here? We wait on the method of victory prop for Petr Yan inside the distance. That’s exactly what we do.

The Bets
Yan Wins Inside the Distance
–
Place Bet Now!

In Conclusion

Are we going to get plus money on the Petr Yan inside the distance prop?

I really hope so because I love that bet but I would say play it up to (-150). From there, we might have to begin to look at alternative betting options for this matchup. That won’t be a problem, though, come fight time as this one is likely going to headline a pay per view with all the bad blood and media attention.

Deep down, I think Petr Yan knows he is at fault for this whole thing. It is his fault he is not the UFC Bantamweight Champion of the world any longer and nobody else’s.

He might not be coming out and saying it, but he knows.

That’s why it bugs me so much that he won’t come out and say I screwed up. Don’t blame my coaches, the referee, the doctor, and definitely not Aljamain Sterling because he was concussed!

You don’t exactly know what’s going on, what happened, how it happened, what it is, who you are, why lights are so bright, why you’re so emotional, and more. The Sterling hate has got to stop.

I know trolls will be trolls, but fans hold these guys to standards that are impossible to keep if they can even reach them. Let’s lock you in a cage with Petr Yan, and let’s see who “quits” first.

Okay, I will stop with that.

I wanted to get this out to you guys because it is still fairly fresh in our heads, and now the betting odds have been released. I think the books have it right where the line is now at 70/30 for Yan.

I can’t imagine enough money coming in on Sterling in order to move it significantly his way, so we will have to keep our heads on swivels and jump on the Petr Yan wins inside the distance prop whenever it is released.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/betting-odds-and-predictions-for-petr-yan-vs-aljamain-sterling-2/

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