Best NFL player prop for TNF New York Giants vs Washington Football Team: Thomas to slay the Giants

Sportsbooks did not waste much time putting out player props for Week 2. No sooner than the final whistle in Week 1 did we have something to bet on for Thursday Night Football. With all of the variables in the Giants vs the Football Team’s matchup, it’s best to pounce on value early. Before I get to my pick of the game, make sure you check out our expert picks for the game sides and totals.

Week 2 is all about figuring out where players over or underperformed in Week 1. For me, there is one player whose line is a bit deflated after his Week 1 yardage.

Logan Thomas (WFT) over 44.5 receiving yards (-114)

Line available at time of publishing. Playable up to over 46.5 yards.

On a team full of breakout performers last season, Thomas’ rise might have been least expected. The converted college quarterback set career highs across the board with 72 catches for 670 yards in 2020. Including the playoffs, Thomas finished the season on a high note, notching at least 60 yards in 6 of his last 11 games.  In a poor Week 1 gamescript versus the Chargers, the big tight end secured all 3 of his targets for 30 yards and a touchdown. I fully expect Thomas to break out in Week 2.

The Quarterback

A mid-game injury in week 1 forced the Football Team into making what seems like their 85th quarterback change over the last 2 seasons. Enter backup Taylor Heinicke, who drew some strong praise when he was thrust into action towards the end of last season. In the parts of three games he’s played in for Washington, Heinicke has developed a very nice rapport with his tight end. Thomas has a 27 percent yard share and 23 percent target share on throws from Heinicke. His yards per target (8.4) is by far the highest with his new signal caller, as compared to the other quarterbacks who’ve taken snaps for Washington.

And yes, I acknowledge that we’re talking about a very small sample size here. With Thomas’ performance only being one piece of the puzzle, his matchup should be quite exploitable.

The Matchup

Last we saw the Giants, they were shredded by Broncos tight ends for 81 yards on 10 catches. It’s a microcosm of last season for the G-Men, who allowed the 12th most receiving yards to the position. The Giants strength defensively remain their boundary cornerbacks, as well as their run defense (which allowed 3.5 YPC before a garbage-time 70 yard scamper last week).  The focus will be stopping receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Antonio Gibson.

The Giants’ coverage over the middle of the field is suspect, and that’s where I expect Thomas to do most of his damage. Heinicke and Thomas showed a connection up the seam in their time on the field together.

The Projection

Just as important as the player and the matchup is the line. In this case, we have a very acheivable 44.5. With Heinicke’s passing yards implied between 230-240, depending on the book, we conservatively looking for a 20% yard share from Thomas. I have the Virginia Tech alum projected at 7 targets in this game, which should translate to over 50 yards.

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