Best Longshot Bets to Win NHL’s Presidents’ Trophy

NHL futures are here, and have arrived with authority.

Your’s truly will be here rattling off NHL futures previews and predictions from now until training camps get underway in late September, and beyond.

For now, let’s think big. While there is value higher up on the odds chart when it comes to winning the NHL’s Presidents’ Trophy — team with the most regular season points — I’m looking deep into the list here.

Let’s identify three teams that sport long odds — and significant value — to claim the 2022 NHL Presidents’ Trophy.

Philadelphia Flyers (+5000)

The Flyers caught fire late in the 2019-20 regular season, finishing the shortened season with 89 points (in 69 games), sixth-most in the league. They nearly caught the Washington Capitals for top spot in the Metropolitan Division (one point back) despite seemingly battling for a Wild Card spot just weeks earlier.

That’s what made the 2020-21 season so disappointing. The Flyers finished the 56-game season with just 58 points, good for sixth in the East Division and 19th in the overall standings.

The main problem? Goaltending. The team did struggle some to make up for the surprising retirement from veteran Matt Niskanen, but they still finished 12th in terms of high-danger chances against/60 at 5v5 while finishing dead last with an .895 Sv% at 5v5 from their goaltenders between youngster Carter Hart and veteran Brian Elliott.

Hart endured a nightmarish season from the get go, getting shelled for an .877 Sv% that ranked as the worst figure in the league among the 47 netminders that played at least 20 games. Second-last on that list? Elliott with an .889 mark. The Flyers easily had the worst goaltending in the league a season ago.

While Martin Jones has been one of the worst goaltenders himself over the last couple of seasons, the true bounce back in goal needs to come from Hart who, at just 20 and 21 years of age, combined to post a 2.59 GAA and .915 Sv%, the latter of which tied him for 13th in the league alongside Jacob Markstrom and Juuse Saros and just two points worse than 2019-20 Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck. He’s in for a bounce-back season.

CARTER. HART. YES PLEASE. pic.twitter.com/r27rjljOQM

— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) April 16, 2021

While the defense wasn’t the foremost issue, that position was addressed in a big way this offseason as general manager Chuck Fletcher swung a three-way deal for defender Ryan Ellis from the Nashville Predators in addition to adding veterans Rasmus Ristolainen and Keith Yandle. The latter two aren’t without their flaws, but there’s zero doubt this blueline is better right now than it was last year at this time, at least from a personnel standpoint.

The forward group is strong down the middle with Couturier and Kevin Hates at the top, two pivots that contribute at both ends of the ice and on special teams. An influx of goal-scoring was added when Cam Atkinson was brought in for play-maker Jakub Voracek while Scott Laughton has turned himself into a strong 3C himself.

In sum, there doesn’t exactly appear to be too many holes within this Flyers roster. The main problem in a long-shot journey to the 2022 Presidents’ Trophy? Their division. The metro figures to be loaded once again this season with the Capitals, Islanders, Penguins, Hurricanes and Rangers boasting division-winning aspirations while the Devils seemingly went towards a win-now mentality themselves this summer.

It would be a tough road to the top of the division and there’s not many teams anyone can pound on in the Metro like the East did with the Buffalo Sabres last season. Nonetheless, I’m bullish on a Flyers bounce-back campaign and one that could surprise even the most optimistic expectations.

Winnipeg Jets (+5000)

Boasting the same odds as the Flyers, the Jets get the weaker division after addressing their biggest areas of concern as well.

The team figured to make noise in the 2021 postseason after a stunning four-game sweep of the favored Oilers, only to be swept themselves in short order at the hands of the Montreal Canadiens. That said, it was clear all along that this team would not be long for the postseason given their glaring holes on the blueline, once a strongpoint for the franchise just a few years back.

We know they’re going to score goals. They ranked 12th with 3.04 goals per game and seventh with a 23% clip on the power play a season ago, and I’d be willing to wager them at least improving their overall offense this season.

Armed with a wealth of high-end talent down the middle in Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Paul Stastny, Blake Wheeler (if they want) and excellent two-way, third-line pivot Adam Lowry, the Jets will boast a difficult matchup for the opposition. Mason Appleton was snagged by the expansion Seattle Kraken, but there’s plenty of offense on the wing within the top six in Kyle Connor and a player in Nikolaj Ehlers who could turn some serious heads after a stellar 2020-21 campaign.

Obviously, there’s no issue in goal with Connor Hellebuyck set to once again tackle a large portion of minutes between the pipes as he’s one of the few remaining true No. 1 netminders, every night netminders. With Eric Comrie behind him, expect Hellebuyck to net at least 65 starts, perhaps more, this season.

The key issue was always on defense where the team simply had too many bottom-pair options and not enough top-four-caliber rear guards. That changed the second they landed Brendon Dillon a trade with the Washington Capitals. The 30-year-old will give the team a rock-solid, reliable top-four presence alongside Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk and perhaps Dylan Demelo. It remains to be seen where he fits on the depth chart, but Nate Schmidt was also acquired via trade from the Vancouver Canucks, adding another experience, veteran presence to the group.

Add in the hulking and developing Logan Stanley as well as Sami Niku and the Jets have some depth at a position that was lacking it severely over the last couple of season. All you have to do is dial up Naturalstattrick.com and discover at the Jets ranked 26th in terms of high-danger chances against/60 and 27th in expected goals against/60 at 5v5, only to finish 12th in actual goals against/60 at 5v5. I call that the Hellebuyck effect.

Connor Hellebuyck said NOPE. ❌#NHLonSN pic.twitter.com/jLXMoTB4Un

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) August 4, 2020

If the Jets can seriously cut down on high-danger chances next season, Hellebuyck is strong bet to win his second Vezina in three years. That in itself makes Winnipeg dangerous, but when you add in the elite-level top-six forward group that’s extremely strong down the middle, you get a serious contender.

For me, the Jets could once again be a force. Remember, the Jets finished just three points back of the Predators for the Presidents’ Trophy in the 2017-18 season, so this isn’t uncharted territory. They can improve their defensive structure this season, I am loving that Presidents’ Trophy value at +5000.

TIP: HOW TO BET ON THE NHL

Los Angeles Kings (+15000)

Wanna get crazy? Hey, there’s another big underdog Pacific Division team that made a bid for the Presidents’ Trophy  in recent memory and that’s none other than the expansion Vegas Golden Knights who won the division while finishing eight points back of the Preds for that 2017-18 Presidents’ Trophy. You also can’t tell me there’s more talent on that expansion Vegas team on paper than this Kings group.

No, Rob Blake’s roster isn’t stacked, but I think he’s done a hell of a job with it. He stockpiled assets for the last few seasons, but changed his tune into adding win-now aid for his young club. While the youngsters are the next core of potential Los Angeles Kings championships, the guys who helped with the heavy lifting in their most recent glory days are still here.

That would be Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty and Dustin Brown. Kopitar remains an elite two-way center, Brown scored 17 goals in just 49 games including nine power-play markers last season and Doughty remains a true, elite, two-way No. 1 defender in this league. That’s a start, but there’s some x-factors at play.

One would be what key offseason addition Philip Danault can do to help this team. In Kopitar and Danault, the Kings have two extremely reliable defensive centers, Danault the epitome of a true defensive pivot that doesn’t put up the gaudy offensive numbers of Kopitar. He’ll slot in anywhere from the 2C to 3C spot, but he’ll help at both ends of the ice to be sure.

The blueline isn’t without question marks behind Doughty, although a reliable veteran was brought in via free agency in long-time Canuck Alex Edler. He’s not an offensive contributor at 35 years old now, but a shot-blocking machine that is a defensive difference-maker when healthy, which will be the key.

Olli Maatta and Sean Walker will likely round out the top four with some younger competition for bottom-pair spots.

To me, the biggest x-factor at play is netminder Cal Petersen who could be in for a breakout season at age 26, 27 in later October. He’s already played well given his .916 Sv% across 54 career appearances, but his 2.79 GAA is a little high given the Kings’ defensive regression in his brief NHL tenure.

Peterson posted a 2.89 GAA and .911 Sv% last season in 35 appearances, but followed that up with a dominant 1.29 GAA and .953 Sv% with two shutouts across seven games at the World Championship for team USA. That’s impressive work, and Petersen posted a 3.88 goals saved above average with the Kings last season, better than Robin Lehner, Jordan Binnington and Tuukka Rask.

Cal Petersen.
That’s it. That’s the tweet. @usahockey #IIHFWorlds #USAGER @LAKings pic.twitter.com/k3fiicX0nX

— IIHF (@IIHFHockey) May 31, 2021

He’s about the enter the prime years of his career, and if Petersen can break out, the new-look Kings are going to make noise in the weak Pacific, potentially using their division as a stepping stone towards a shocking Presidents’ Trophy take down.