Belgium vs. Portugal: Euro 2020 Analysis and Top Betting Picks

The group F rollercoaster of emotions on matchday 3 has produced 3rd place for Portugal, meaning they will square up with Romelu Lukaku´s Belgium for one of the most appetizing showdowns of the Euro 2020 Round of 16.

Belgium vs. Portugal

Sunday, June 27, 2021 – 03:00 PM EDT at La Cartuja Stadium

In the evening of the 23rd of June, titleholders Portugal managed to cover almost all the positions on the Group F table. They started as second, jumped on first, and then finished third as Germany pulled themselves together and reached the second spot behind France: ‘death group’ at its finest! The minimum result possible for Fernando Santos´ team meant that they are set to take one of the strongest winners of the group stage, Lukaku´s Belgium.

The Serie A rivalry for the Belgium striker is renewed: despite his 24 goals as Inter were crowned Champions, Cristiano Ronaldo managed to snatch the personal achievement counting the same number of penalties (6), fewer games (33 vs. 36), and 5 goals clear. CR7 is currently on the top at Euro 2020 with 5 goals followed by Lukaku (and many others) at 3. Stopping the Portuguese run as a team would mean also sending Cristiano Ronaldo back home and allowing Lukaku to aim also at this personal achievement. CR7 has already improved his tournament tally since his first participation in 2004.

However, this game is not going to be only Lukaku vs. CR7. It is once again an acid test for Portugal´s speculative football against one of the most attacking-prone national teams on the continent. We have seen it before: everyone was giving the Lusitanians for dead, but yet again they managed to hold tight and go ahead with the minimum effort possible. Will Belgium break the spell?

TACTICAL ANALYSIS

Attacking football? Ball possession? Look elsewhere, Fernando Santos has no time for that. As seen against France in the last game of the group stage, Portugal are not giving up their passive 4-2-3-1 featuring also talents like Bruno Fernandes and Diogo Jota doing the hard work. As Lukaku will be playing with his back to the goal in a consuming duel with Pepe, Belgium will have to patiently build up behind him and exploit wings.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

De Bruyne, Lukaku, and Mertens are the keys Martinez will use to unlock the Portuguese fortress. He might get brave and give also the other Hazard, Eden, a nod. So far, his brother Thorgan stole the show, but everyone knows where the talent rests in the family. CR7 will be surrounded by 9 gladiators and Rui Patricio: despite his status, he has long ago accepted the role of the golden terminal of an otherwise minnow-minded national team.

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

Belgium will want to open the score early as the more the time grows, the more Portugal´s confidence boosts. Going into extra time would be a minefield for Martinez´ XI who has proved to be frail at times when more resolution was needed. Portugal are happy with their handicap role: they founded their 2016 fortunes on it!

BETTING TIPS

Are Belgium really that favorites? Looking at the final output odd for the 1, not that much. The thing is, the more the plot gets thick, the more it is complicated to rule out Portugal can have another long run till the final. As shown in 2016, it does not matter how brilliant you are in the group stage and how many goals you have scored to go through, once in the Round of 16 the chances are almost the same. Portugal could really bring Belgium to extra time making the draw odds very appetizing for the bettors. However, if you believe in the half-time stalemate, the Under 0,5 for the first half is not bad at all.

Free Soccer Pick: Draw at +220 (3.2) at BetOnline (Visit our BetOnline Review)

Draw (+220)

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