Armed Forces Bowl: Missouri vs. Army College Football Picks

There’s just one bowl game on the college football calendar Wednesday as Missouri of the SEC takes on independent Army in the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas. Here are our betting picks for Missouri versus Army.

Might Army have a small advantage over Missouri in the Armed Forces Bowl? We say that because the Black Knights should be much less rusty as they played most recently on Dec. 11 against Navy. Missouri hasn’t taken the field since Nov. 26 in a lopsided loss at Arkansas.

Missouri is 3-1 all-time against Army, but the schools haven’t played since 1982. The Tigers haven’t seen a service academy since 2009.

Here are my picks and predictions for the Armed Forces Bowl matchup between Missouri and Army (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Missouri vs. Army Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, Dec. 22, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Weather: Temps in the low 50s at kickoff, a few clouds. Winds 5 to 10 mph.

Missouri vs. Army Odds Analysis

This spread took a nice jump toward Army on Tuesday because Missouri has ruled out arguably its best offensive player and will give a freshman his first-ever start at quarterback. If you got Army at -3 when this opened a week ago, you are looking great right now. The total has dropped essentially two points across the board with the Missouri player news.

Missouri Betting Preview

Record: 6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS, 7-5 O/U
Key Players: RB Tyler Badie (out), RB Dawson Downing, QB Brady Cook, K Harrison Mevis
Notable Trend: Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their past eight as underdogs
Bowl History: 15-18 all-time record; 2020: Music City Bowl vs. Iowa was canceled

Big news dropped on Tuesday morning when Tigers coach Eli Drinkwitz announced star running back Tyler Badie will not play – although it’s not Badie who is opting out, but the decision was Drinkwitz’s. This is strange because as of Monday, a school spokesperson said Badie was practicing for the bowl game and Drinkwitz had said for a few weeks that Badie would play. Badie announced on social media later Tuesday that he was declaring for the draft.

Badie was the nation’s third-leading rusher with 1,604 yards (school record) on 268 carries. He had another 330 yards receiving on 54 catches and scored 18 total touchdowns. Badie totaled 74.7 percent of Missouri’s rushing yards and 39.1 percent of its total offensive yards from scrimmage. So, yeah, he’s a big loss.

Drinkwitz made another somewhat surprising announcement in that redshirt freshman Brady Cook will make his first career start at quarterback instead of Connor Bazelak, who started most of the season. Cook saw action in four games and was 19-for-24 for 107 yards with a TD.

If this comes down to a game-winning field goal, Missouri is in good shape as kicker Harrison Mevis was named an All-American and first-team All-SEC. He is 20-of-22 in field goals and is 3-of-3 on 50-plus-yard attempts, while also converting on all 40 of his PAT attempts.

Army Betting Preview

Record: 8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS, 5-7 O/U
Key Players: LB Andre Carter II, LB Arik Smith, DB Marquel Broughton, NT Nolan Cockrill, RB Tyrell Robinson, QB Christian Anderson
Notable Trend: Black Knights are 3-0 all-time in Armed Forces Bowl
Bowl History: 6-3 all-time record; 2020: Lost to West Virginia 24-21 in Liberty Bowl.

My only concern with backing Army here is if the Black Knights come out flat after being upset by Navy 17-13 in their regular-season finale and – if we are being honest – true bowl game. Army was held to just 124 rushing yards in that game and if this team can’t run the ball, it’s not beating anyone because it rarely throws – just 101 attempts on the season. The leading receiver, Isaiah Alston, has all of 19 catches. On the flip side, four players, including QB Christian Anderson, have rushed for at least 400 yards.

Even with that effort versus Navy, Army ranks among national leaders in rushing offense (second, 286.4 yards per game), time of possession (second, 35:50), and turnovers lost (third, eight). Andre Carter is one of the best linebackers in the country and was named third-team All-American. He’s second in the FBS with 14.5 sacks (school record) and 10th with 16.5 tackles for loss. Think of him as a Micah Parsons-type disruptor.

Army is not listing any opt-outs – you can’t opt out from the Army!

Missouri vs. Army Picks

Army -6.5 (-110) ★★★
Under 55.5 points (-110) ★★★
Army ML (-225) ★★★★
Missouri Under 24.5 points (-125) ★★★
Army 1st-half ML (-195) ★★

SEE ALSO: College Football Bowl Predictions

Missouri vs. Army Predictions

Army -6.5 (-110)

We pretty much explained above why we are backing the Black Knights: Missouri is incredibly shorthanded. Unless Bazelak takes the field, none of the Tigers’ four captains will play.

In addition, senior cornerback Akayleb Evans opted out previously and defensive lineman Akial Byers, offensive linemen Bobby Lawrence and Zeke Powell, tight end Niko Hea, and safety Martez Manuel are all out injured. Two tight ends have transferred since the end of the regular season.

Missouri is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 versus teams with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in its past four non-conference games. Army is 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games and 4-0 ATS in its past four following an ATS loss.

Under 55.5 points (-110)

Without Badie, the next four Missouri backs on the depth chart have combined for 393 yards on 73 carries: Michael Cox (18 carries), Elijah Young (24), Dawson Downing (9), and B.J. Harris (22) all carried the ball this year. Downing will start this game. Army ranks among the national leaders in allowing 111.5 rushing yards per game. I definitely don’t trust Cook throwing the ball and expect Carter to have a couple of sacks of the freshman.

On the flip side, it’s always wise to go Under on service academies for the most part because they run the ball all game and thus the clock is usually running, too.

The Under is 4-0 in Missouri’s past four as a ‘dog and 4-1 in Army’s past five as a favorite.

Army ML (-225)

This might actually be a better bet than giving the Tigers 6.5 points because I have little doubt that Army wins overall, but Missouri might be able to sneak a backdoor cover in late at -6.5.

Opposing offenses have rushed for 229.3 yards per game against Missouri this season, and Missouri ranked last in the SEC against the run.

Missouri Under 24.5 points (-125)

The Tigers have topped 24.5 points in a game just once in their past four: A 31-28 win over South Carolina on Nov. 13, and that was with Badie rushing for 209 yards and Bazelak under center. The Gamecocks’ defense isn’t as good as Army’s.

Army 1st-half ML (-195)

Rounding out our Missouri-Army picks, the first half figures to be when Missouri struggles the most having not played in several weeks and breaking in so many new starters. Also keep this in mind: Army has forced 14 takeaways on opponent opening drives since 2015 (four this year). The rest of the FBS has only averaged about four such takeaways per season.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Missouri-Army picks made 12/21/2021 at 1:51 p.m. ET

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