AL West Odds Update: Team Breakdowns & Best Value Pick

Here we are on July 2 preparing for the second-half of the 2021 Major League Baseball season.

Teams themselves are hovering around the halfway mark of 81 games played and the All-Stat break is now within arm’s length.

With that in mind, now is  great time to look back into some MLB divisional futures as our tour through the American League concludes with the AL West, a division that could provide some intrigue down the stretch.

As a result, let’s get you updated on some AL West odds with a breakdown of each club’s season to this point before dialing in on the best value pick to win the division!

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of before play on July 2, 2021

Houston Astros

• Record: 49-33
• Run Differential: +132
• Expected Record: 53-29
• GB: —
• AL West Odds: -325

The Spin:

After a down 2020 regular season prior to marching to the American League Championship Series, the Houston Astros are back as the team to beat in the AL here in the 2021 campaign.

In short, they not only own the best record in the junior circuit, but also lead not only the AL but all of Major League Baseball with that +132 run differential, 22 runs superior to the second-place L.A. Dodgers at +110. Those would be the lone two clubs in triple digits prior to play on July 2.

Was this expected? Sorta. I mean, the offense was a good bet to bounce back despite losing George Springer to the Blue Jays in free agency. Remember, 2019 AL Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez missed about 99% of the 2020 season due to injuries to both knees, so getting his titanic left-handed power bat into the lineup was going to help while Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa were due to bounce back, they have in spades.

One major key to this offense was retaining Michael Brantley, one of the most professional bats in the sport. Brantley is hitting .345 to lead the AL while sitting just one point back of the Reds’ Nick Castellanos for the MLB lead. Altuve, Brantley, Alvarez and Correa are anchoring the offense, but let’s also not forget that Yuli Gurriel ranks sixth in baseball with a .325 average of his own to go along with an .896 OPS and 147 wRC+. Alvarez is right there with a .300 average and 149 wRC+ and add in Kyle Tucker and his .799 OPS and 119 wRC+ and you once again have one of the finest offenses in baseball.

Incredible Michael Brantley. Now hitting .500 since coming off of the IL at 31 for 62. pic.twitter.com/vPY4t7sQdY

— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) June 26, 2021

In fact, Houston’s once again the best offense in the game with a .345 wOBA on the season with their 19.3 offensive fWAR also sitting atop the league by a wide margin over the second-place Dodgers at 15.9.

The real question here was going to be pitching, both in the rotation and beyond. Justin Verlander was lost for the season due to Tommy John surgery, putting a big dent in that rotation. They added Jake Odorizzi to the mix in free agency and have Zack Greinke and Lance McCullers Jr. to lean on, but Houston has also received significant contributions from Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Christian Javier and Framber Valdez, the latter of whom missed significant time to start the season due to a broken finger.

Those contributions have helped lead the Astros to sixth with a 3.34 rotation ERA and despite a plethora of injuries to their bullpen (although getting healthier by the minute), they’ve held tough to an 18th-ranked 4.27 ERA which has certainly been good enough to at least help support an MLB-best offense and rotation that is approaching the top five in the league.

Is There Value?

Not right now. We’ll see how things shake out as we approach the trade deadline, however the Astros are only slim leaders in the division at the moment, not nearly far enough away from second-place Oakland, so right now it’s awfully hard to lay this type of juice at -325 right now.

That said, I do believe this is the best team in the AL West. The offense certainly is by a landslide, and the starting pitching has just been rock solid up and down. In terms of the bullpen, they are set to get Josh James, Pedro Baez, Austin Pruitt and Bryan Abreu back from injuries very soon. That’s a healthy chunk of the makeup of that bullpen heading into the season, so we can certainly anticipate that group getting even better which is scary for the remainder of the division — and league.

For now, I’m hanging tough and seeing if we can shake out some more value in this team in the coming weeks.

Oakland A’s

• Record: 48-35
• Run Differential: +30
• Expected Record: 45-38
• GB: 1.5
• AL West Odds: +240

The Spin:

Another ho-hum season for the low-budget Oakland A’s as they are once again right in the thick of the AL West race after taking down the division a season ago.

Given how their season started, it’s pretty remarkable they’re back to within just a game and a half of the division-leading ‘Stros. In fact, it’s the Astros who dealt the A’s some early-season body blows as the A’s were swept in a four-game set at home against the rival Astros before dropping their next two games to the Dodgers, waiting until their seventh game of the season to notch their first win.

However,  it didn’t take them long to recover. The A’s would rattle off a 13-game winning streak to power them to a division-best 16-11 record in the month of April, 1.5 games ahead of the Astros at the time, and they haven’t really looked back while gaining 34 runs over the roughly two months since.

As is usually the case with Oakland, it’s pretty much been an all-round team effort. The offense ranks 14th with a .315 wOBA despite a down season for stud third baseman Matt Chapman. They do have Matt Olson raking with 20 long balls on the season and Ramon Laureano just might be the most underrated player in the game on both sides of the ball.

Instant Pop!

Homer No. 20 for Matt Olson 💪 pic.twitter.com/Ir4meqtHiN

— MLB (@MLB) June 20, 2021

As far as pitching goes, the A’s have received a 10th-ranked 3.75 ERA from their rotation led by brilliant first halves for both Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, both of whom own 3.13 ERAs and 3.25 FIPs or better. One surprise has been southpaw Cole Irvin who was picked up off the scrap heap from the Phillies only to turn in a 3.64 ERA/3.66 FIP across 94 frames and 16 starts so far this season.

The A’s did lose closer Liam Hendriks as his MLB-leading (among relievers) 5.2 fWAR across the 2019 and 2020 seasons was always going to price him out of their market in free agency. In fact, he was the leader by a cool 2.2 wins above replacement over second-place Nick Anderson in that time.

It’s a big blow, and that bullpen has taken a step back relative to their peers as they sit one spot ahead of the Astros at 17th with a 4.23 bullpen ERA on the season. New closer Lou Trivino has been excellent with a 2.11 ERA and 13 games on the season while Yusmeiro Petit, Jake Diekman and Deolis Guerra have done the heavy lifting while all sporting sub-4.00 ERAs.

As is similarly the case with the low-budget Tampa Bay Rays in the East, the frugal A’s always find a way to compete in the West.

Is There Value?

There’s absolutely value in this group at just 1.5 games back at +240 odds here in the second day of July.

They don’t usually take on big money in the trade market and certainly not in the free-agent market, but I believe general manager David Forst will go out and get help prior to the July 30 MLB Trade Deadline. The Oakland middle infield of Elvis Andrus and Tony Kemp has been rather unproductive and I’d be shocked if an impact reliever or two isn’t added to that league-average mix.

Nipping at the heels of the Astros is no easy feat here in the 2021 season, and despite their run differential suggesting they should be well back, the A’s are hanging in there and should give their rivals a run for their money moving forward.

READ NOW: AL East Odds Update

Seattle Mariners

• Record: 43-39
• Run Differential: -42
• Expected Record: 37-45
• GB: 6.0
• AL West Odds: +2500

The Spin:

Not many expected the Mariners to be over the .500 mark though 82 games this season, and they were probably right. I mean, it’s not easy to be three games over that mark in this division, but there’s a six-win expected slide as judge by their run differential. They own the seventh-best record in the AL but the 10th-best run differential.

That said, you don’t have to apologize for outperforming in sports, it happens all the time. The biggest reason as to why the Mariners are where they are is a vastly improved bullpen. Consider that the Mariners’ bullpen finished last season ranked 28th with a 5.92 ERA, but have since moved up to 19th with a 4.31 ERA. Not only that, but they also sit fourth with a 3.73 FIP and fifth with a 3.2 fWAR from that group, so they’ve deserved a better fate than their surface ERA figure that was largely skewed by a 6.49 ERA across the first two weeks of June. Otherwise, this group has been quite good.

They’ve had to be given what the remainder of the roster has provided, or has not provided. The rotation has been subpar while sporting a 22nd-ranked 4.57 ERA. Left-hander Marco Gonzalez posted a 5.10 ERA before going down with a forearm strain that cost him the month of May while fellow southpaw Justus Sheffield has not made the strides expected while working to a 5.88 ERA in 14 starts.

Those rough 23 starts between Gonzales and Sheffield have skewed the numbers some as Chris Flexen, Yusei Kikuchi, Logan Gilbert and even Justin Dunn have prevented runs at quality rates, all sporting an ERA of 4.25 or better with all but Gilbert at 3.97 or better.

The biggest issue is at the plate where the Mariners rank among the game’s worst. Seattle is tied with the Mets for 26th with a .296 wOBA on the season as they share the second-worst strikeout rate with the Cubs at 26.6%. Only the Tigers have been worse at an even 27%.

It should be an interesting month from the heavy-dealing Jerry Dipito as he does boast some attractive bats despite the club’s overall lack of production at the dish. Mitch Haniger is under club control through 2023, but he’ll get asked about given his 120 wRC+ at the plate while the Mariners current hold a club option on third-baseman Kyle Seager after the season. Seager could be a commodity for clubs looking for help at the hot corner or a left-handed power bat off the bench while he’s had a solid overall season while carrying a 1.3 fWAR at the halfway mark.

Tied at the top!

Mitch Haniger now leads the league with 12 HR. 💪 pic.twitter.com/5b9AEWAopE

— MLB (@MLB) May 16, 2021

It doesn’t help that Kyle Lewis has missed more than half of his sophomore season after taking home AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2020 and Jarred Kelenic’s big-league debut was wildly disappointing as he gains further seasoning in the minors following a rough 23-game audition in which he hit just .096 with two homers and an ugly .178 wOBA. He’ll get back.

It could be a wait-and-see approach for Dipito this month, but he does have some veterans that could fetch a nice return in hopes of moving forward in the youth movement next season.

Is There Value?

If you’re an extreme optimist, there could be solid value here on the Mariners given the +2500 odds. Their over .500 and have gotten solid pitching, but this team will likely be subtracting from or standing still with that bottom-five offense this month from a trade deadline perspective, so there’s not much to be hopeful about an offensive surge moving forward.

They’re not only fighting one but two far superior clubs in hopes of a long-shot division title. They remain just 4.5 games back of a crowded Wild Card picture, and that would seemingly be the easiest route despite sitting only an additional game and a half back of the Astros for the AL West lead.

If you’re asking me, I’m not throwing a hail mary on the Mariners. Of the 30 MLB clubs, the Mariners are the luckiest by far in terms of expected win/loss record compared to actual results with that six-win difference. Only the Marlins have a wider gap in that department, but there’s is in their favor while deserving eight more wins than they’ve managed to this point.

I believe that run differential eventually catches up to them. How do you manage to win four more than you’ve lost despite a -42 run differential? You win a whole lot of one-run games as the Mariners are 18-7 in one-run affairs, an MLB-best figure but not only total wins but also winning percentage and one that seems rather unsustainable in the season’s second half.

Los Angeles Angels

• Record: 39-41
• Run Differential: -33
• Expected Record: 37-34
• GB: 9.0
• AL West Odds: +4000

The Spin:

New Angels general manager Perry Minasian was tasked this December in trying to get Mike Trout to the playoffs after his predecessor Billy Eppler failed to do so in his five-year run at the helm. Like Eppler, however, Minasian plugging his pitching staff with arms he did just hasn’t worked to this point.

He did fine in acquiring a well-regarded closer in former Reds reliever Raisel Iglesias and after a tough start he’s settled in with that ERA now below the 4.00 mark. The remainder of the bullpen hasn’t done much to help, however, as the Angels sit 24th with a 4.79 bullpen ERA on the season. While Iglesias, Steve Cishek and Chris Rodriguez have been solid, too many arms have been blasted as Alex Claudio, Tony Watson and Aaron Slegers were three arms that were going to be leaned on, only to struggle in the season’s first half.

The rotation work has been even worse. After a career-year in his first tour of duty with the Halos, Dylan Bundy has been brutalized to an ERA approaching 7.00 this season and has been demoted to the bullpen. The signing of Jose Quintana didn’t pan out as he worked to a 7.22 ERA in nine starts while Griffin Canning, Andrew Heaney and Alex Cobb sport ERAs of 4.84 or worse despite Cobb owning some sparkling peripherals.

All told, the Angels’ rotation ranks 26th with a 5.25 ERA on the season. Of course, MVP front-runner Shohei Ohtani has been excellent on the mound before getting tattooed for seven first-inning runs his last time out against the Yankees in the Bronx, and 23-year-old Jose Suarez will look to take his stout bullpen work to the rotation in place of Bundy. That move would appear to be the lone in-house improvement option for Minasian at the moment.

As for the offense, losing Mike Trout on May 18 due to a calf strain didn’t help and the six-to-eight week timetable seems on the optimistic side at this point. With Trout doing Trout-like things, Ohtani absolutely raking at the plate and the emergence of Jared Walsh, the Angels had something cooking on offense, especially once Anthony Rendon got healthy.

Concrete jungle where dreams are made of
There’s nothing Jared Walsh can’t do pic.twitter.com/h8oM51T1rt

— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) July 1, 2021

Even without Trout for the long term of Rendon for two separate IL stints earlier in the year, offense is the least of the worries in Orange County as the Halos are tied for seventh with a .325 wOBA on the season at the plate while their .183 ISO checks in at sixth, so they’ve flexed some notable muscle as well.

Unfortunately, the pitching looks to have done them in again.

As a result, we should following this club carefully over the next two weeks. Should they catch some fire, perhaps Minasian adds. If another losing skid is to be had, it’s back to the drawing board for 2022.

Is There Value?

I will start by saying this: there’s more value in the Angels than there is in the Mariners. They’re the better ball club with the far superior offense, but once again pitching has cost them dearly.

Therefore, no, there isn’t value in this team at the moment. All we have to do once again is tell you how good that Astros team is. It’s a league-best offense, so the Angels don’t even have the advantage there despite swinging it well themselves. Then there’s the pitching which isn’t close.

They’re already nine games out with three teams to jump in the division. Even if they close within, say, seven over the last couple of weeks, is that enough for Minasian to go out and grab a high-end starter? Perhaps he does, but I would suggest it would be one with club control beyond this season in the overwhelmingly likely chance that his club misses the postseason once again.

Add it up and the Angels are a sure fade for me at the moment.

READ NOW: AL Central Odds Update

Texas Rangers

• Record: 32-49
• Run Differential: -52
• Expected Record: 35-46
• GB: 16.5
• AL West Odds: +75000

The Spin:

There were little to no expectations for the Rangers here in the 2021 season as they could be a team to watch on the trade front moving forward.

In terms of how they got here, it’s pretty simply: they have not out-performed in any phase of the game.

One major issue that’s set them back took place even before the season began as both Jose Leclerc and Jonathan Rodriguez were both nailed by UCL injuries and subsequent Tommy Johny surgery. Fellow high-leverage arm Matt Bush has yet to throw a pitch this season due to a shoulder issue, leaving the Texas bullpen without three of its top arms, two of which will miss the entire season and a portion of next.

Given the injuries, it’s admirable they still sit 20th with at least a somewhat palatable 4.54 bullpen ERA. Not a good number, but one that can be easily explained.

As for the rotation, that work has been nearly identical as Rangers starters have combined to hurl a 4.51 ERA on the season, good for 21st league wide. After getting absolutely shelled on Opening Day in Kansas City, Kyle Gibson has been one of baseball’s best starting pitchers this season with a 2.00 ERA across 90 frames and 15 starts. After allowing five runs and recording just one out on Opening Day, Gibson has not allowed more than three earned runs in his 14 starts since and two earned runs or less in 13 of those 14 starts.  Gibson has one year of club control left after this season, so he’ll be a highly sought-after arms that the Rangers should be capitalizing on while he’s pitching this well.

Kyle Gibson improves his record to 6-0 and lowers his ERA to 2.00 on the season. #CarryTheFreight pic.twitter.com/rgHbZutT3z

— Texas Rangers (@Rangers) June 26, 2021

There is hope for the rotation in the form of Dane Dunning — the prized return in the Lance Lynn trade with the White Sox — and southpaw Kolby Allard. Dunning owns a 4.38 ERA/3.29 FIP in 16 starts spanning 74 innings while Allard has tossed a 3.66 ERA/4.03 FIP in his six starts after throwing 20 innings of 3.15 ERA ball out of the Rangers’ bullpen. He was likely used out of the bullpen initially to manage his innings, but at 23, Allard is a huge piece of that group moving forward.

If you’re name isn’t Gibson, Dunning or Allard, you have been shelled out of that Rangers rotation this season, but there is at least some hope for the future while they could get some serious future assets for Gibson this month.

Is There Value?

Surely not this season, and it’s probably going to take some time here in Texas.

Gibson should get dealt, and with slugger Joey Gallo both heating up at the plate and playing elite outfield defense, he should certainly receive some interest on the trade market, especially with another year of control after the 2021 season.

Therefore, the Rangers would appear to be in a position where they can bag some big-time prospects and/or MLB-ready youngsters to help move this team towards contention in the coming years. For now, however, there’s simply no value to be had.

AL West Best Value Pick

Oakland A’s (+240)

If I’m making a bet right now when it comes to the AL West, it’s on the Oakland A’s.

Just 1.5 games back of the AL-best Astros, the A’s will get some help at the trade deadline, but already have real nice starting pitching in place with an offense that can hit. The bullpen will see the bulk of upgrades, but something should be done at either shortstop or second base sometime this month.

You just know they’re going to hang in tough. They always do. It’s a major challenge with Houston hitting as well as they have with starting pitching that already needs little run support to win ball games.

If anyone is going to do it, Oakland certainly owns the best value in the division.