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AFC West Division: A Betting Preview

August 22, 2021
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Earlier this week, we took an in-depth look at the AFC East Division, providing you a breakdown of all the offseason moves, which games that you need to circle on your calendar as games to watch, and providing a high value bet for each and every team in the division. We will continue our preseason NFL coverage today as we take a look at the AFC West Division.

The AFC West is home to the defending conference champion Kansas City Chiefs, and with the Chiefs poised for a 3rd consecutive trip to the Big Game and the rest of the division all seemingly improved, this may very well end up being one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL this year. With that, let’s jump right into it as we head to, where else, Kansas City, to preview the Chiefs.

Kansas City Chiefs Odds To Win Division (-250)

No team is a bigger favorite right now to win their division than the Kansas City Chiefs are at -250. Those are some steep odds considering that we haven’t even taken a snap yet this season. But, when you go to back-to-back Super Bowls, and you have the best player in the game in Patrick Mahomes, leading the way, it is hard to see any other team winning this division, so the price is aggressive, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong.

It will be very interesting to see how the Chiefs react to being humbled by Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last year in the Super Bowl. The books seem to think it won’t bother them much, as Kansas City is the current betting favorite to win it all at +500, but I am not so sure that the Chiefs are going to walk through the conference like so many people seem to think. Getting to the top is always easier than staying at the top, and the Chiefs are sure to get everyone’s best shot this season, with a major target on their heads.

What’s New?

Normally we don’t see a team as good as the Chiefs have been in the last couple of years go out and add so many pieces in the offseason, but the Chiefs knew that they were exposed on the offensive line and on the defensive side of the football last year in the Super Bowl, and they decided to address those concerns and added several key pieces. The entire offensive line is rebuilt, with guys like Orlando Brown, Joe Thuney, Kyle Long, and Austin Blythe joining the team, and the Chiefs spent their 2nd round draft pick on offensive lineman Creed Humphrey, so it was clear that they are looking to protect Mahomes. They also brought in defensive tackle Jarran Reed in free agency and linebacker Nick Bolton in the draft to help bolster their leaky defense.

The top skill position players from last year all came back, with Mahomes having all of his favorite weapons back this year in Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, amongst a host of others, on a roster built on speed. The biggest concerns for this Chiefs team is keeping Mahomes healthy and letting these playmakers make plays. No team in the league has more home run hitters than the Chiefs do, and if their revamped offensive line can mesh well together early, they are going to run away with this division.

Weeks To Watch

I’m not going to lie, every week is a week to watch for these Chiefs, as they are must-see TV and remind me of the Greatest Show on Turf Ram’s teams from a generation ago, where you don’t want to miss a minute of the action. But if I have to narrow things down to a couple of specific weeks that matter, I will zone in on week 1 against Cleveland, week 2 at Baltimore, week 5 at home against Buffalo, and week 10 at Las Vegas.

The schedule is a tough one early on for the Chiefs as both the Browns and the Ravens are expected to compete for a trip to the Super Bowl. I am sure that Kansas City will be favored in each of those games, but that doesn’t mean they can’t lose, one or even both of them. This team is experienced enough to not allow an 0-2 start to ruin their season, but big games like these ones are always tough early in the year when you haven’t had the time to get going yet. That is particularly true when you look at their offensive line being so different from a year ago. These guys will need time to gel, and with the schedule makers keeping things tough on them out of the gates, they aren’t going to have much time to get their act together.

Week 5 at home against Buffalo is sure to be a blockbuster game, as the Bills and Chiefs are the consensus top 2 teams in the AFC this season, and that is going to be an early-season barometer on which team is truly the team to beat this season in the conference. The Chiefs have to play the Raiders twice this season, once on the road in week 10 and then again at home in week 14. The Raiders were the only team to beat the Chiefs last year in the regular season, assuming you don’t count their week 17 loss to the Chargers where none of their starters played, and these teams are very familiar with each other, and the Raiders could pull off the upset again this year. The Chief’s schedule is dotted with land mines, and while I do see them winning this division, I think they are going to lose more games than they did last season for sure.

What’s The Bet?

Kansas City has a very aggressive win total of 12.5 wins this season. That is the highest total in the NFL, and when I see how many tough games the Chiefs have on their schedule, something tells me that they are going to come in on the under. We already talked about potential losses to the Browns, Ravens, Bills, and Raiders, but the tough matchups don’t end there, as KC has to play at Tennessee in week 7, home against Green Bay in week 9, and home against Pittsburgh in week 16. Not to mention all of their division games, which are always tougher than they appear on the surface. With the expanded schedule, the Chiefs would have to go 13-4 to cash tickets on the over.

With at least 7 or 8 losable games on the schedule, the Chiefs are going to have to win all of their heavily favored games and most of their close games, to go over this total. Even if they stay completely healthy, that is going to be awfully hard to do, and if a key guy like Mahomes, Kelce, or Tyreek Hill go down injured, this bet might end up being free money. We don’t see many mid-season trades in the NFL like we do in the NBA or MLB, so this roster can only get worse as the season progresses, not better.

If last year’s beat down in the bowl built a blueprint for teams to beat the Chiefs, they could end up having a lot of trouble this year and really struggle to win games consistently. This team is great, but they need too many things to go right to go over this total, and with an accomplished head coach like Andy Reid, they know that regular-season games aren’t where championships are won or lost, and it won’t bother them at all if they don’t lead the AFC in wins in the regular season, as they know the playoffs are where it matters.

The Bet
Kansas City Chiefs Under 12.5 Wins
-130
Bet Now!

Los Angeles Chargers Odds To Win Division (+450)

A couple of years ago, the Los Angeles Chargers looked like a lost franchise. They moved from San Diego, where they were beloved, to Los Angeles, where they were forced to play second fiddle to the Rams. Longtime franchise QB Phillip Rivers was gone, and the team didn’t have an identity. Then came Justin Herbert to save the day! Herbert had one of the best rookie seasons ever for a quarterback last year, breaking the all-time record for most TD passes for a rookie. Coming into this season, Chargers fans are hoping that Herbert doesn’t suffer from a sophomore slump, and if he can take another step up after impressing as a rookie, the Charges could be a sleeper contender in the AFC.

What’s New?

Similar to the Chiefs, the Chargers knew they had to get better on the offensive line, to protect their new franchise quarterback. LA signed all-pro center Corey Linsley to a huge free agent deal to pair him with Herbert for the next 5 seasons in the City of Angels. They also signed offensive tackle Matt Feiler as a free agent and added 1st rounder Rashawn Slater to the mix as well. It is going to take some time for these guys to learn to play together, but this is a far superior front 5 than they had last season, and it will be interesting to see how far Herbert can take them now that he might not have to run for his life every snap.

The Chargers lost tight end Hunter Henry and replaced him with Jared Cook, which most people see as a slight downgrade. I’ve always liked Cook’s big play ability at tight end and feel that his signing might go better than most people seem to think. After spending his first several seasons in the league always banged up, Keenan Allen has managed to stay mostly healthy the last several seasons, and he is good for 100 catches and 1,000 yards every season and should give Herbert a reliable deep threat target.

For me, the key to this Chargers offense is going to be running back Austin Ekeler. Ekeler missed a big chunk of last season, but when he was healthy, he was very good at both running the ball and catching it out of the backfield. Backup Justin Jackson is serviceable in a change of pace role, but he isn’t Austin Ekeler, and if Ekeler can’t stay on the field, the upside on the Chargers is limited as teams will be able to drop back all of their guys into coverage, making it difficult for Herbert to find open targets.

Weeks To Watch

There are lots of winnable games on the schedule for LA as they play at Washington, home against Dallas, at Cincinnati, home against the Giants, and at Houston. Getting some soft road games out of the division is a nice wind at their back, and if they can win on the road against some of these bad teams, and they can protect their home field against the good teams, they are going to have a real shot at the postseason. The stretch of games that stick out the most to me is early in the season between week 3 and week 6.

If you remember correctly, the Chargers were terrible early in the season last year, as they started out by losing 7 of their first 8 games. They rallied to win their final 4 games of the season to end the year on a high note and give them some momentum heading into this season, but avoiding that slow start is going to be huge for this young Charger’s team. In week 3, they play at Kansas City, and while they are certain to be huge underdogs in that game, they nearly knocked off the Chiefs last year in week 1, losing to them in overtime, and they beat Kansas City in week 17, albeit with most of the Chief’s staters sitting the game out. But, at the end of the day, wins are wins, and especially for a young team like this one, that win did a lot for their confidence.

After the KC game, they host the Raiders in what is always going to be a tough divisional game, then they host the Cleveland Browns, who are expected to be quite good this season. After the Browns game, the Chargers play at Baltimore, before hitting their bye week. That is a very difficult early-season test, and if the Chargers can’t find ways to stay competitive and win a couple of those games, they are going to be out of the playoff conversation early. Momentum is key for young teams looking to rise up in the NFL, and if the Chargers get hot early, they can lean into their weak 2nd half schedule and make an unlikely run to the top of this division.

What’s The Bet?

While I don’t think that the Chargers are going to really give the Chiefs a run for their money for the division title, I do think that they have a very real chance of making the playoffs as a wild card. The NFL expanded the postseason last year from 12 teams to 14 teams, adding a 3rd wild card spot to both leagues. The AFC is top-heavy with the likes of the Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, and Browns. But after those top teams, the middle of the pack of the conference, the teams that are going to be fighting it out for those wild card spots, are lumped together fairly tightly.

Not a lot separates the Titans, Colts, Chargers, Dolphins, Patriots, and Broncos. I’ll give 1 of the wild cards to the runner-up between the Browns and the Ravens in the AFC North, and I expect the Titans to win the AFC South Division. That is 5 playoff teams, leaving the final 2 wild card spots up for grabs. Carson Wentz is already hurt in Indy, and I think the Broncos are another year away from legit contention. That leaves me with the Dolphins, Chargers, and Patriots fighting for the final 2 spots.

All of those teams are flawed in major ways, but if I had to make a call right now, I would lean towards the Patriots and Chargers snagging those final playoff spots in the AFC. The fact that I can get dog money on San Diego, sorry Los Angeles, to make the playoffs, shows outrageous value, as this is a team that is on the rise. They are going to have to find a way not to slip up early in the year, and if they can do that, late-season games against teams like the Texans, Bengals, and Giants are going to help get them over the hump for that last playoff spot.

The Bet
Los Angeles Chargers To Make The Playoffs
+105
Bet Now!

Denver Broncos Odds To Win Division (+600)

This is a pivotal year for Broncos quarterback Drew Lock. Not many expected Lock to be the QB of the future when they drafted him in the 2nd round back in 2018, but after getting some playing time in 2019 and impressing, he took over as the Broncos main signal caller last season. The stats weren’t eye-popping by any means, but the kid showed that he can play ball on this level. Lock is going to have to produce right away if he wants to hold off Teddy Bridgewater, who the Broncos signed to come in and compete for the starting job.

This team has promising pieces at the skill positions with Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton catching the ball, and Melvin Gordon had a nice bounce-back year last season, and at age-28, he should still have plenty of gas left in the tank. Rookie running back Javonte Williams is going to split time with Gordon, and that could end up being a very solid duo in the backfield. The question in Denver is, do they ride out Lock and see if he progresses into a franchise QB, or do they throw in the more experienced Teddy Bridgewater, who likely makes them better today, but isn’t a guy that is going to be around for another decade to lead the team.

What’s New?

Bridgewater is the highlight, and I would expect at some point that he ends up taking over for Drew Lock. We all know that John Elway loves Lock, but Bridgewater can take this team to the playoffs if he stays healthy. That is a big if, though, as Bridgewater played just 15 games over the course of 3 years before staying healthy last season and playing 15 games for the Carolina Panthers. While Courtland Sutton isn’t actually new to the team, he got hurt last year in week 1 and did not return, and he could end up being a game changer on the outside when paired up with last year’s 1st round wideout Jerry Jeudy.

Sutton came out of nowhere in 2019 to catch 72 balls for 1,112 yards, and he is going to be a major boost to this Broncos offense that struggled to score the ball consistently last season. If all Sutton does is take coverage away from Jeudy, that is going to be a major win for Denver, as Jeudy has the potential to be amongst the best receivers in the game, and he was my favorite receiver drafted in 2019. Denver did their best to go out and bring in Aaron Rodgers from the Green Bay Packers but came up short, and no matter who is throwing the ball for the Broncos, they should have some nice targets with playmakers like Sutton and Jeudy.

Weeks To Watch

Don’t be surprised if the Broncos are the surprise team of the league in the first 3 weeks of the season. That’s not to say that they are going to be a team that is overly feared, but with games against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets to start the season, the Broncos could end up starting the season out 3-0 with the weak competition. They also have games on the schedule against the Washington Football team, the Cowboys, who may be without Dak Prescott for the year, the Lions, and the Bengals. If all the Broncos do is win the games that they are supposed to win, they are going to hang around in the postseason conversation in the AFC.

If I had to narrow down the Broncos season to the 2 games that matter the most, I would highlight week 12 and week 17 against the Chargers. We already talked about how tightly grouped these fringe playoff teams are in the AFC, and whichever team wins those games is going to have a really great shot at making the playoffs. Week 12 is going to be huge for the Broncos playoff chances, as they host the Chargers coming off of their bye week. A home team playing a divisional opponent, coming off of their bye week, is a great spot, and the Broncos must win that game to have any real shot at contention.

What’s The Bet?

This one is a little bit of a gamble, but a high value play, nonetheless. Von Miller and Bradley Chubb give the Broncos one of the top pass rushing duos in the game, and I like the over 19.5 sacks for them combined this season at +160. Miller is a future Hall of Famer who has 106 career sacks on his resume, including a career-high 18.5 back in 2012. Miller was banged up last season and posted his lowest sack total for a season since 2013 when he played only 9 games. His 8 sacks were a major disappointment for him, despite that being a very solid total for anyone not named Von Miller. His 17-game average for sacks in his career is 12.5, so if he is healthy and can do what he has always done, we may not even have to sweat this bet out at all.

Chubb is a monster at linebacker that racked up 12 sacks as a rookie in 2018. A torn ACL cost him much of his 2019 season, and last year, he wasn’t fully healed yet and only recorded 7.5 sacks in 14 games. But even though he has had to fight through major injuries, his 20.5 career sacks in just 34 games is still mighty impressive. That projects out to nearly 10 sacks in a full 17 game season. As you can see, all we need for Miller and Chubb to do is stay on the field for the full season and post just average (at least for them) stats, and this bet goes over with ease. Even if one of these guys misses time, we still have a great shot at cashing this ticket, and it is hard not to love all of the dog money we get to pick up on the play.

The Bet
Von Miller + Bradley Chubb Over 19.5 Sacks
+160
Bet Now!

Las Vegas Raiders Odds To Win Division (+2200)

The Las Vegas Raiders finally get to break in their beautiful new stadium just off the Las Vegas strip, well, at least with fans in the stands for the 1st time, that is, as they played in an empty stadium in Vegas last season. I am actually quite surprised at these odds, as I don’t see the Raiders that far back of either the Chargers or the Broncos. But, even with as much long-term value that a price like this shows, the Chiefs are winning this division, so I won’t be able to step out and make a high risk/high reward play, as I just don’t see any way that the Raiders can jump the entire division to take home the title. But, that being said, this is a decent football team that is going to surprise some people this year.

What’s New?

There was a lot of activity in the offseason for Las Vegas. The majority of the offensive line is new as they lost 3 of their 5 regular starters. It is doubtful that the unit got any better, but 1st round draft pick Alex Leatherwood out of Alabama should be a nice addition. They also made a bit of a strange pick up when they grabbed free agent Kenyan Drake, as Josh Jacobs seems to firmly be the lead back in Las Vegas. But having extra ball carriers never hurts, and Drake has shown home run ability, and he is a good pass catcher out of the backfield, so it might end up being a sneaky good move.

The Raiders signed Nelson Agholor to a 1-year deal last year, and he had a great season and was able to parlay that into a big free agent deal with the New England Patriots. The Raiders are hoping that they can repeat that success on a similar 1-year deal for wideout John Brown. Brown is a speedster and should give quarterback David Carr another deep threat to go along with Henry Ruggs. David Carr gets a lot of flack in the media, but the fact of the matter is that this guy is an above average quarterback and is the face of this Raiders franchise. LV was rumored to be trying to trade for both Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson in the offseason and couldn’t close the deal, and when those rumors got to Carr, he said that he would rather retire than play for any team besides the Raiders. If that ain’t loyalty, I don’t know what is! Have faith Raiders fans!

Weeks To Watch

The Raiders have developed this bad trend of starting hot and fading hard in the 2nd half of the season. In 2019 they were 6-4 before they stumbled to the finish line by losing 5 of their last 6 games. Last year, they started out even hotter, as they were 6-3 through 9 games, only to finish the season a disappointing 8-8. Don’t be surprised if that happens again this year, as LV has a fairly soft schedule in the 1st half. They open with a tough game against the Baltimore Ravens, but that is at home, so they are going to have a shot. Then they travel to Pittsburgh to play a beatable Steelers team.

After the first 2 weeks, there are several projected W’s for Las Vegas as they play Miami, Chicago, and Philly at home, and the Chargers and Broncos on the road before their week 8 bye. I see the Raiders as mortal locks to have a winning record heading into that bye week, setting themselves up for another potentially disappointing finish to the season. They have some soft games in the 2nd half as well, with games against the Giants, Bengals, and WFT, but they also play the Chiefs twice, the Browns, and the Colts on the road. They beat Kansas City last year in Arrowhead, and they welcome the Chiefs to Las Vegas on November 14th, looking to knock them off for the 2nd consecutive season. That game is the highlight of their regular season, and a win would be huge for the future of this recently relocated franchise.

What’s The Bet?

I almost couldn’t believe my eyes when I saw that the Raiders win total is sitting at just 7 games. This is a team that everyone thinks is going to lose double-digit games? I just don’t see it happening. Some of these games are going to be coin-flip type of games that we will need to break our way, but the Raiders have reasonably high potential wins against the Dolphins at home, Bears at home, Eagles at home, Giants on the road, Bengals at home, Cowboys on the road (remember Dak might be done for the year), Washington at home, the Broncos at home, the Colts on the road, and the Chargers at home. If they take all of those games, they finish at least 10-7 and easily hit the over here with several games to spare.

Now, even if they lose a couple of those, they could just as well win a game or 2 that they shouldn’t and still get there by multiple games. People seem to hate on the Raiders a lot, and I get it, their fans are the worst, and they haven’t been very good for a very long time, but they were decent last year, and they are going to be at least as good this year. Remember, the Raiders beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead last year and lost to them by only 4-points at home. They lost to a very good Bills team by just 1 score, and they lost to the Chargers in overtime and the Dolphins by just a single point. This is plain and simple a bad number, and I will hammer everything I’ve got on the over 7 wins for the 2021 Las Vegas Raiders.

The Bet
Raiders Over 7 Wins
-110
Bet Now!

Wrap Up

Thanks for reading, and make sure to swing by TheSportsGeek’s NFL picks page, where our expert team of handicappers bring you high value NFL picks, each and every week! Stay tuned to TSG as we approach the start of the 2021 NFL season, as we are going to bring you all of the in-depth news and coverage that you need to make money betting on the NFL this season.

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