AFC South Divisional Breakdown Recap for 2021 (Fantasy Football)

The Fantasy Footballers are going through divisional breakdowns now that we’re getting into fantasy draft season!  Andy and Jason broke down the AFC South division on Saturday’s episode!

We’ll recap each team highlighting their offensive & defensive statistics from 2020, the story behind their record, ADPs for each player, and leave you with some of the biggest fantasy questions entering the season.

Editor’s Note: Looking for full statistical projections for the players on these teams? From Julio Jones’ projected target share to the outlook for the 2021 Texans, every team is statted out in full in the 2021 Ultimate Draft Kit!

Tennessee Titans

Head Coach: Mike Vrabel

Offensive Coordinator: Todd Downing replacing Arthur Smith (now Falcons HC)

Offense

The Titans finished 2020 with a 11-5 record, the same as the colts.

• 4th in pts/g.

• 2nd in rush attempts in 2020.

• 7-2 in one score games last season.

• Best turnover differential (+11) in the NFL.

• High red zone efficiency.

Defense

• Allowed the 2nd most passing TDs & 4th most yards per game.

• They should have a poor defense again in 2021 – Is this going to force them to put up points on offense?

Schedule

• First Four Matchups: vs ARI, @ SEA, vs IND, @ NYJ

• 2021 Projected Vegas Win Total: 9.5

Current ADP

• QB– Ryan Tannehill (15.07/QB27)

• RB- Derrick Henry (1.03/RB3)

• WR- AJ Brown (2.08/WR7), Julio Jones (4.03/WR14)

• TE- Anthony Firkser (late-round flier)

The Titans focused on improving the defense over the offseason.  Jonnu Smith and Corey Davis are no longer on the team.  They were looking very thin on offense, but then they traded for Julio Jones.  Ryan Tannehill has been underrated on offense over the past two seasons, and we should expect another efficient season.  Henry averaged 5.5 yards per carry on 1st and 10 last season. The team wants to run the ball through Derrick Henry, and they’ll be able to spread the ball around on offense.  Jason prefers the value of Julio over AJ Brown due to the dip in average draft position (ADP).  Julio is going to demand targets and should be effective in this system, at the expense of AJ Brown.  That being said, Brown should still remain the alpha.

Biggest Fantasy Questions

• Can Derrick Henry hold up again with a 300+ carry count?  When will the wheels fall off?
• Will Julio hurt AJ Brown’s fantasy value?

Indianapolis Colts

Head Coach: Frank Reich

Offensive Coordinator: Marcus Brady replacing Nick Sirianni (now Eagles HC)

Offense

Like the Titans, the Colts finished 2020 with a 11-5 record.

• Last year’s game plan: ball control.  3rd fewest time-outs on offense.  5th Most on defense.

• Addition of Carson Wentz

Defense

• Fantasy’s #1 defense last season.

• Finished 2nd in defensive rush yards allowed.

• 10th in points against.

Schedule

• First Four Matchups: vs SEA, vs LAR, @ TEN, @ MIA

• 2021 Projected Vegas Win Total: 10

Current ADP

• QB– Carson Wentz (12.07/QB19)

• RB- Jonathan Taylor (1.07/RB6), Nyheim Hines (10.08/RB44), Marlon Mack (15.06/RB57)

• WR- T.Y. Hilton (12.08/WR57), Michael Pittman Jr. (11.08/WR58), Zach Pascal (flier), Parris Campbell (flier)

• TE- Jack Doyle/Mo Alie-Cox (fliers)

The Colts were the only team to be favored in 15 of 16 games last season.  The Colts have a very well-balanced team and should have another solid season.  Now with Carson Wentz under center, Indy’s future is in his hands.  Andy believes Wentz can get it done this season, although Jason has some concerns.  In his favor, the offensive line is ranked 2nd overall entering 2021.  However, the receiving options are sub-par at best.  Andy and Jason are not a fan of T.Y. Hilton this season because he’s on the tail end of his career and appears to be washed.  Can Nyheim Hines fill in as a safety net for Wentz?  Can Michael Pittman or Parris Campbell take a step forward?  The guys think Pittman is worth a flier entering his sophomore season.  On the plus side on offense, Jonathan Taylor looks special and should be able to feast behind the o-line.  Jason said Taylor is his least favorite fantasy running back this season because he is being drafted very high…even though Jason adores him.  Andy has him ranked the highest and expects Frank Reich to get him involved in the passing game.

Biggest Fantasy Questions

• Will any of the wide receivers emerge?
• Can Carson Wentz step up?
• Is T.Y. Hilton washed?
• Is Jonathan Taylor being drafted too high?

Houston Texans

Head Coach: David Culley

Offensive Coordinator: Tim Kelly

Offense

• Only 21.5 rushes per game (including Watson rushes) – 31st in the NFL.

• 30th in rush TD.

• 22nd in pace of play.

• 23rd in pass attempts.

Defense

• 32nd in defensive rush yards allowed.

• 24th in defensive pass yards allowed.

• 27th in points against.

Schedule

• First Four Matchups: vs JAX, @ CLE, vs CAR, @ BUF

• 2021 Projected Vegas Win Total: 4

Current ADP

• QB– Deshaun Watson (13.06/QB22), Tyrod Taylor (flier)

• RB- David Johnson (7.10/RB33)

• WR- Brandin Cooks (8.06/WR39), Nico Collins / Keke Coutee / Randall Cobb

• TE- Jordan Akins/Brevin Jordan

The Texans were 4-12 last season and look a lot worse now than they did last season.  No one knows what’s going to happen with Deshaun Watson this season – will he ever take an NFL snap again?  Andy is the most bullish and would put the line around a 40% chance that Watson plays a game for an NFL team this season.  No one has a crystal ball, so it’s yet to be determined.  Tyrod Taylor is the current starter in Houston.  Taylor is nothing special and has averaged 18 completions a game throughout his career.  The Texans don’t have any sexy offensive weapons.  We should expect a poor offense with minimal fantasy relevance.  However, there are two offensive players that are interesting: David Johnson and Brandin Cooks.  On the rushing side, the Texans have brought in a slew of older/washed weapons like Mark Ingram, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead.  Some of these players will be cut, and DJ should emerge as the alpha and should see a decent workload.  DJ was surprisingly consistent (although not flashy) last season.  David Johnson is still talented and can catch the football – he’s a fine pick in the 7th round this season.   Brandin Cooks was sneaky productive last season, especially toward the end.  Cooks is another fine pick at his ADP.  Aside from David Johnson and Brandin Cooks, avoid Texans at all costs!

Biggest Fantasy Questions

• What’s in store for Deshaun Watson?  Will he play at all this season?
• Are you willing to invest in David Johnson this season?
• Will Brandin Cooks emerge as a weekly starter?

Jacksonville Jaguars

Head Coach: Urban Meyer

Offensive Coordinator: Darrell Bevell

Offense

• Ranked dead last in rush attempts last season.  Despite that, they still produced a top-10 fantasy RB.

• 30th in points per game.

• 31st in rush TDs.

Defense

• 30th in rush yards allowed.

• 27th in defensive pass yards allowed.

• 31st in points against.

Schedule

• First Four Matchups: @ HOU, vs DEN, vs ARI, @ CIN

• 2021 Projected Vegas Win Total: 6

Current ADP

• QB– Trevor Lawrence (10.03/QB14)

• RB- Travis Etienne (5.04/RB24), James Robinson (6.10/RB29).

• WR- D.J. Chark (7.03/WR31), Laviska Shenault (9.12/WR43), Marvin Jones (11.06/WR51)

• TE- James O’Shaughnessy/Tim Tebow

Urban Meyer is taking over for the Jaguars.  The offseason kicked off with a flash in drafting Trevor Lawrence first overall.  Lawrence is graded as the greatest prospect since Andrew Luck.  Meyer also drafted Travis Etienne (RB) with the 25th overall pick, which muddies the waters in Jacksonville.  James Robinson was GREAT last season despite the Jaguars being dead last in rushing attempts last season.  Robinson was only productive because he got ALL the carries.  Now with the addition of Etienne, Robinson is going to take a hit.  Similarly, Robinson is going to pull touches from Robinson.  Jason expects a similar workload, and Andy doesn’t think either will finish in the top-24.  On the receiving side, D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, and Marvin Jones will be fighting for touches.  We don’t know who will emerge as the leader, but the guys are anti-Chark based on his ADP in the early 7th round.  While Trevor Lawrence is expected to become a solid NFL quarterback, it still normally takes rookies time to develop.  With all this combined, it is unclear if/when the pass catchers will be weekly fantasy starts.

Biggest Fantasy Questions

• Will James Robinson take a backseat to Travis Etienne?  Will either be valuable at their current ADP?
• Will Trevor Lawrence live up to the hype?  If so, how long will it take?
• Which receiver(s), if any, will valuable for fantasy this season?

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