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AFC East Division: A Betting Preview

August 20, 2021
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It is almost hard to believe, but NFL football is just around the corner! With the preseason games in full swing, and rosters being finalized, we now have a great picture of what the NFL will look like this season. With the brand new 17-game regular season schedule, various COVID-19 and vaccine related restrictions and mandates, and several high-profile players on the move with new teams, this year is sure to be a wild one!

All week long, we here at TheSportsGeek are breaking down all of the preseason NFL news and data, and we will be giving you the sharp betting advice that you need to make money betting on NFL football in 2021. In this article, we are going to break down all of the action in the AFC East Division and give you 1 high value bet to make for each and every team. With that, let’s jump right in by taking a look at last year’s AFC East Division champions, the Buffalo Bills!

Buffalo Bills Odds To Win Division (-150)

Last year, the Buffalo Bills exploded onto the scene, taking full advantage of the New England Patriot’s rebuild, and won their 1st division title since 1995, finishing the season with a 13-3 record. Buffalo made it all of the way to the AFC Championship game before getting blown out by the Kansas City Chiefs, 38-24. The Bills return this season as the heavy favorites to take home back-to-back division titles, and when you look at the rest of the division, it is hard to expect anything other than a dominating performance from the Bills this season in the AFC East.

What’s New?

The Bills didn’t need to go out and add a bunch of talent in the offseason, as they already had the best roster in the division, but with Buffalo thinking more about a Super Bowl title, than a division title, they went out and added some talent anyway. The biggest name Buffalo added was veteran wideout, Emmanual Sanders. Sanders had a solid season last year for the New Orleans Saints, and he should give Josh Allen a consistent target in the slot, while also taking some attention away from superstar Stefon Diggs, who has emerged as potentially the top receiver in the entire NFL after a monster season last year, where he led the league in receiving yards at 1,535.

Buffalo also added some depth in the backfield with speedster Matt Breida, who, despite a lack of consistent playing time in his career, has served well as a change of pace back and has a career average of nearly 5 yards per carry. Breida is expected to back up 3rd year running back Devin Singletary, but it wouldn’t shock me to see more of a time split between the two guys, with Zack Moss getting some touches as well. The Bills have always been a run-first type of team, but with Josh Allen looking like a league MVP candidate, you can expect more of a pass-heavy attack this season. The new faces are a nice addition, but the biggest task on the agenda for the Bills last season was keeping the talent they already had, and they did just that with the resigning of guys like Daryl Williams, Matt Milano, Levi Wallace, and Jon Feliciano.

Weeks To Watch

Some people will tell you that it is always harder to stay the champs than it is to become the champs, and the Bills will carry that burden with them into week 1 for the 1st time in a generation. The schedule starts out tough for Buffalo, as they head to Miami in week 2 for a showdown with the upstart Dolphins, in a game that will set the early season tone for how the division will play out this year. Road games in the division are always tougher than they appear on the surface, and with expectations up for Miami this season, that game is a potential land mine.

Prior to heading into their week 7 bye, the Bills have road trips to Kansas City and Tennessee, and they are nearly certain to be betting underdogs in both games, as the Titans and Chiefs are 2 of the favorites in the AFC again this year. Throw in what could end up being a tough week 1 home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Bills could very well get off to a slow start to the season and hit their bye week with a 4-3 record, which would be a major disappointment, considering they only lost 3 games all of last season. The final game that you are going to want to circle on the calendar for the Bills is the December 12th trip to Tampa Bay, to play the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, in a game that could very well be a potential Super Bowl preview. Nobody knows Tom Brady better than this Bills team, and a win on the road against the GOAT and his merry band of weapons would be a major feather in the Bills cap as they head towards the postseason.

What’s The Bet?

I promised that I would give you at least 1 bet for every team in the division, and the Bills are going to be an easy play, as they are going to win this division. While the Dolphins should be improved, and I can’t imagine that Bill Belichick is going to allow his Patriots to be bad again this year, after blowing it up and starting over last year, neither of those teams are going to be able to hang with Buffalo for very long. The price certainly isn’t overly sexy at (-150), but at the end of the day, it would take a major injury to Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs for the Bills not to run away with this division.

People tend to forget just how young this Bills team is right now and that they are still maturing and getting better. They finished the regular season on fire last year with a 6-game winning streak heading into the playoffs and were getting noticeably better each week. If the Bills can carry that momentum into this season, they could have this division title wrapped up by early December. Another Bill’s related bet that is worth a look is Josh Allen to win the MVP Award at (+1200).

Allen’s stats lined up very competitively with last year’s MVP Patrick Mahomes, and assuming that Allen still hasn’t hit his prime as of yet, and at age 25, I can’t imagine that is the case, he could be even better this season. Allen has gotten significantly better in each of his 3 seasons in the NFL, and I don’t think we have seen the best out of him yet, which makes him a legit candidate to take home the top individual honor in the league.

The Bet
Buffalo Bills To Win AFC East
-150
Bet Now!

Miami Dolphins Odds To Win Division (+350)

The Miami Dolphins surprised a lot of people last year when they won double-digit games and nearly broke through with a playoff appearance. The Dolphins hit this season looking a lot like the Buffalo Bills did last season, with a young team that is hungry to improve. This team will rise and fall with franchise quarterback Tua Tagovaiola. The decision last season to bench veteran signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick drew a lot of criticism, but ultimately it was the right decision as the future of this franchise was never going to be Fitzmagic, and they had to see what they had in the former 1st round draft pick.

Tua had his fair share of ups and downs, as most rookie QBs do, but heading into the final regular season game of the year against the Buffalo Bills, he had thrown 10 TDs and only 2 INTs, so he was putting together some efficient stats. He didn’t play well in Buffalo, ending his season on a low note, but this kid is supremely talented and is a candidate for a breakout season this year. This team will only go as far as Tua can take them this year, and after seeing him lead Alabama to back-to-back National Championship games in college, and then leading the Dolphins to the brink of the playoffs as a rookie, there are plenty of reasons to be excited this year for Miami fans.

What’s New?

The Dolphins were a very young team last season, and instead of going out and grabbing a bunch of high-priced free agents, they decided to mostly stand pat and instead let their young guys develop. Fitzpatrick is gone, replaced by career backup Jacoby Brissett, which should allow Tua the ability to struggle without worrying about being benched. The biggest addition to this team may very well end up being rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who the Dolphins took with the 6th overall pick, to reunite Waddle with his college QB, in Tua Tagovaiola. Miami also added the oft-injured Will Fuller, who could be a game changer for the Dolphins, as he has been fantastic when he has managed to stay healthy.

It was important for Miami to give Tua some quality guys to throw to, and adding Fuller and Waddle, showed me that they are here to support their young quarterback. If incumbent wideout Davante Parker can return to his 2019 level of production, that saw him catch 72 balls for 1,202 yards and 9 scores, the Dolphins will have one of the more underrated receiving corps in the league. Matt Skura was brought in to take over for departed center Ted Karras in a move that is considered by most to be a wash, and while I would have liked to have seen Miami add some more help on defense and more depth at running back behind Miles Gaskin, this is a solid roster that should compete with the top teams in the AFC when they are at their best.

Weeks To Watch

We already mentioned the game between Miami and Buffalo in week 2, and after nearly knocking off Buffalo last year early in the season at home, a win over Buffalo would be huge for this young team’s confidence. After a slow start last season where they lost 3 of their first 4 games, the Dolphins finished by winning 9 of their last 12 games, and a major key to success this season for Miami is avoiding that slow start. The other 2 games that stick out to me that are going to decide the fate of this Miami team is the Thursday Night Football game against the Baltimore Ravens on November 11th and the Dolphins week 17 trip to Tennessee to face the Titans.

The Dolphins are expected to be hanging around in the wild card conversation in the AFC, and with Baltimore and Tennessee in similar positions, those could be loser out games late in the season. My gut tells me that the Dolphins are a year away from really competing at the top of the AFC, but wins over the Ravens and Titans would certainly change my opinion, as those would be big ones.

What’s The Bet?

The price is attractive for Miami on win their division, but I just don’t think it is going to happen, so I will pass on that play for now. My bet for Miami is going to be on Jaylen Waddle to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award at (+1800). Waddle is nursing an ankle injury at the moment but is expected to be ready for opening week, and the combination of Tua and Waddle was one of the best in the country when they played together at Alabama. There should be a lot of familiarity between these guys, and as most young QBs tend to do, Tagovaiola is going to revert to what he is most familiar with, and he is very familiar with Jaylen Waddle.

Winning the Rookie of the Year Award tends to be as much about playing time and opportunities as it is about talent. A guy that stays on the field a lot and gets lots of snaps in is going to end up with a better chance of winning the award than a guy that is explosive but can’t stay on the field. The entire Dolphins receiving corps is banged up right now, and that means Waddle is going to get a lot of reps and should start from day 1. He was also an elite punt and kick returner in college, and if he returns kicks, that just gives him that more time to shine on the field.

Waddle was a home run hitter at Alabama, with a career average of nearly 19 yards per reception, and after seeing head coach Brian Flores opt to play Tua over Fitzpatrick last year, I think that he takes a similar route with Waddle this year, meaning he is going to get plenty of opportunities to grow and not have to fear being benched. The Rookie of the Year Award has been dominated by quarterbacks and running backs, but I see Waddle taking home the honors as the first wide receiver to win the award since Odell Beckham Jr in 2014.

The Bet
Jaylen Waddle To Win ROY
+1800
Bet Now!

New England Patriots Odds To Win Division (+350)

It is still weird to see the New England Patriots this far down the list in the AFC East Division after they dominated it for so long. Prior to last year’s 3rd place finish, the Patriots had won 16 of the previous 17 AFC East Division titles, including 11 straight. But after Tom Brady bolted to Tampa Bay, head coach Bill Belichick decided that it was time for a rebuild in New England, for the first time this century. But losing didn’t suit Belichick very well, as the Pats went berserk in the offseason, dropping 160 million in guaranteed contracts, the most by any team in a single offseason ever.

New England still has some glaring holes on the roster, most noticeably at quarterback, where Cam Newton clearly isn’t going to be the guy long-term. That being said, Bill Belichick is the greatest coach in the history of the sport, and while some of their additions didn’t make a ton of sense on the surface, this guy absolutely knows what he is doing, and we will just have to trust that he made the right moves. Will New England be good enough to challenge Buffalo for the division title? Probably not. But will they hang around in the wild card conversation in the AFC? You can bet on it!

What’s New?

In a word, everything. We already talked about the money machine that was the Patriots in the offseason, as they fired off contracts left and right, snatching up a significant amount of talent. Adding 2 top line tight ends was a bit of a head scratcher, as they added both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, but we remember what this team looked like back when they had the best tight end tandem in NFL history in Rob Gronkowski and the late Aaron Hernandez, so that might end up being a sneaky good move. New England also added linebacker Matt Judon, safety Jalen Mills, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux, linebacker Kyle Van Noy, and a pair of impact receivers in Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.

There will be new faces all over the field for New England, and I am not sure there is a head coach in NFL history that is better at putting the right people in the right places than Bill Belichick. The free agent adds were the headline in the offseason for New England, but I think their best addition came in the draft, by adding Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. Jones led the nation in basically every major passing statistic last season and set a new all-time record for completion percentage, connecting on an absurd 77.4% of his throws. We have seen what Belichick can do when it comes to developing young quarterbacks, and if Mac Jones matures quickly, the Patriots are going to be a tough team to beat late in the season.

Weeks To Watch

The game that everyone is waiting for is the Patriot’s week 4 game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That will be Tom Brady’s return to Foxboro, and you know that there is going to be no love lost between Brady and Belichick, in what should be the highest-rated game on the NFL regular season schedule this year. The Patriot’s schedule is a bit backloaded as 3 of their last 5 games come against the Bills and Dolphins, teams that they will be competing with for the division title. In week 13, New England travels to Buffalo is what is sure to be a snowy game in hostile territory, and then after their bye week, they play at Indianapolis, home against Buffalo again, home against Jacksonville, and then they finish the regular season at Miami, in a game that may very well have huge playoff implications.

That is a brutal stretch of games, but they come late enough in the season where the new guys should be solidly in their roles, and Mac Jones should be driving the offense by then, so they are going to have a shot at surprising people. With that tough run late in the year, that means the Patriots catch a break early in the season, with winnable games against teams like the Jets, Texans, Panthers, Chargers, and Falcons. Don’t be surprised if New England ends up being the surprise team of the 1st half of the season as the schedule lays out for them positively to have a hot start to the year. Only time will tell if they will be ready to face that murderer’s row at the end the regular season, but they should hit their bye week still in the playoff picture in the AFC.

What’s The Bet?

My bet on the Patriots is going to be a fun one that shows outrageous value. We already talked about New England picking up a couple of the top tight ends in the game in Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry, and with New England’s long history of loving to use their tight ends in creative ways, I see a lot of value in the prop bet of Smith and Henry over 1,500 receiving yards at (+1200). For this bet to come in, we will need Mac Jones to take over for Cam Newton fairly early in the season, as Newton just doesn’t have the arm anymore to want to make any plays on passing props. But I think that is what is going to end up happening, and if Mac Jones does what I think he is going to do, this play on Henry and Smith is a sharp one.

It was a long time ago, but the last time that New England had a tight end duo like this was in 2011, with Gronk and Hernandez. That year, the duo combined for a whopping 2,237 yards on 237 targets. Neither of those guys could stay on the field consistently together after that peak season, but it goes to show you that when Bill Belichick has elite pass catchers at tight end that he loves to throw them the ball. On paper, I don’t think either one of these guys has ever really lived up to their full potential, as they are better than their stats seem to tell you. With offensive guru Josh McDaniels calling the plays, I expect both guys to have career years.

The Bet
Smith + Henry Over 1,500 Receiving Yards
+1200
Bet Now!

New York Jets Odds To Win Division (+2500)

Let’s get this out of the way right now, the New York Jets aren’t winning very many games this season, and they certainly aren’t winning the AFC East Division title. The Jets blew things up, again, and after bottoming out to the tune of a 2-14 record last year, things aren’t going to get much better this year for New York. The Jets went all-in to draft BYU quarterback Zach Wilson in the 1st round, and it’s hard to expect Wilson to be much better than the likes of Mark Sanchez, Sam Darnold, or Geno Smith. While winning won’t be the priority for the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets, that doesn’t mean they can’t get better, even if that doesn’t equate to very many wins.

What’s New?

Zach Wilson is the clear headliner here, and while he looks the part and has the moxie and confidence needed to be a starting QB in New York City, he played a cupcake schedule in college, and he is already not playing nice in training camp, and this feels like another spectacular miss by New York. The Jets did bring in some help at wide receiver, in the form of Corey Davis, who had career highs in receptions, yards, and TDs last year for the Tennessee Titans, but he isn’t a number 1 type of ball catcher, even though that what the Jets need him to be.

The offensive line is full of holes, but they did spend a 1st round draft pick on Alijah Vera-Tucker, so at least they are trying to keep their new franchise QB safe. Add in last year’s 1st round draft pick Mekhi Becton, and the Jets have the building blocks for a solid offensive line, but with no center of the future and no help on the blindside, Wilson is going to spend much of the season running for his life.

Weeks To Watch

Honestly, if you aren’t a Jets fan, there aren’t going to be many weeks you are going to want to watch this dumpster can fire of a team. There is always at least a little bit of interest in a 1st round QB making his NFL debut, so week 1 is worth tuning in to see Zach Wilson try not to get murdered by the Carolina Panthers defense. The schedule is a fairly soft one with winnable games against the Bengals, Texans, Jaguars, and Broncos, but none of those games are must-see TV, to say the least. We are all going to be forced to watch them in week 9 as they travel to Indianapolis to play the Colts on Thursday Night Football, if only because that will be the only game played that day.

What’s The Bet?

The over/under for the Jets win total is sitting at 6 games right now. That is an absolutely terrible number, as I don’t know if the Jets are going to win 3 games this year. I like Robert Saleh, but a rookie head coach, with a rookie quarterback, on a team that hasn’t won a Super Bowl since Super Bowl 3, is a recipe for disaster. Many of the “winnable” games for the Jets come on the road, and I am not picking this painfully inexperienced Jets team to win any games in other team’s buildings. So, you can chalk up road games against the Panthers, Broncos, Falcons, and Texans as likely losses.

For argument’s sake, let’s say that the Jets win half of those games against other bad teams. That puts them at 2 wins. New York needs to find 4 more wins at home, to just push this total. They didn’t beat any of their division rivals at home last season, and they aren’t beating any of them again this season. That leaves home games against the Titans, Bengals, Eagles, Saints, Jaguars, and Buccaneers, where they need to go 4-2, just to push! They aren’t beating the defending world champion Bucs, and the Titans and Derrick Henry are going to slaughter them.

Will they run the table against the Eagles, Saints, Jags, and Bengals to sneak in the push? I mean, it could happen, but I highly doubt it. I’ll give them a win against Cincinnati and a win against Jacksonville. That’s the best that I can do. That puts the Jets at 4-13 on the year and well under this total. You hate to kick a team when they are down; wait, what am I saying here? I love to kick a team when they are down! Especially if that team is the worst franchise in the sport in the New York Jets! Expect ugly football from New York this year and yet another offseason where a bunch of people get fired and Jets fans wear paper bags over their heads.

The Bet
Jets Under 6 Wins
-120
Bet Now!

Wrap Up

Thanks for reading and make sure to swing by TheSportsGeek’s NFL picks page, where our expert team of handicappers bring you high value NFL picks, each and every week! Stay tuned to TSG as we approach the start of the 2021 NFL season, as we are going to bring you all of the in-depth news and coverage that you need, to make money betting on the NFL this season.

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