7 Phillies Post-Trade Deadline Observations: New Faces, Price Tags, Help Still Wanted

The Phillies added a decent piece to a razor-thin starting rotation in Kyle Gibson. They added a quality late-inning arm in Ian Kennedy. They reunited with infielder Freddy Galvis. Then, they took the field at PNC Park on Friday night, blinked, and found themselves down 5-0 in the second inning on their way to being one-hit by a Pirates team that entered the day with a 38-64 record.

It was a miserable performance, one that seemed to validate a series of play-it-safe moves ahead of the trade deadline that inspire as much optimism and confidence as this middling team’s performance through 103 games.

Still, you know the 2021 Phillies refrain:

A winnable division — the Braves and Mets lost again last night — and if they can just patch up some of that spotty play, get some guys hot, hey, I mean, who knows?

Following the flurry of pre-deadline moves, which also saw the team part ways with former top pitching prospect Spencer Howard, I decided to hash out some thoughts on where the Phillies currently stand with roughly two months to go in the regular season.

With that, I give you seven post-trade deadline observations.

Some Simple Math

Before we tackle the moves and what it all means, let’s answer the most important question — what type of finish will the Phillies need to end their nine-season playoff absence?

The Braves went out and made a slew of moves ahead of the deadline. So did the Mets. Even still, both teams sport a number of flaws and likely won’t turn on the afterburners en route to 90+ win seasons.

In the Phillies’ best-case scenario, things remain essentially the same in the NL East with the Mets and Braves playing roughly .500 baseball the rest of the way. If the Mets go 30-30 over their final 60 games, that puts them at 84 wins.

At 51-52 entering play Saturday, the Phillies would need to go 33-26 over the final two months to match that win total.

Is there anything about the 2021 Phillies, a team that seems to cling to the .500 mark with magnetic force, that suggests they can win roughly 56% of their remaining games?

I don’t see it, but stranger things have happened, I guess.

Just Give Them a Chance

You already know about the Phillies’ starting pitching issues, but here’s a new way to look at what the group has done over a nine-game stretch against what was supposed to be a soft schedule.

In the first three innings of their last nine games, Phillies pitchers have thrown 27 innings while allowing 30 earned runs.

That’s a 10.00 ERA. In the last six games started by someone other than Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola, the Phillies have allowed an outrageous 27 earned runs in just 18 innings. That’s a 14.00 ERA.

Going 4-5 in a stretch of games against the Braves, Nationals, and Pirates is obviously not good enough, but frankly, the Phillies are lucky to have avoided a 2-7 or 3-6 record.

Is It Enough?

The above numbers are just one way of illustrating the Phillies’ existing need for rotation help. The addition of Kyle Gibson, who has gone at least five innings in 18 consecutive starts, should help.

The 33-year-old, who is under contract for $7.6 million next season, comes to Philadelphia in the midst of arguably his finest professional season, but he will need to shake two subpar outings following the All-Star break in which he allowed a total of 26 baserunners and 11 earned runs in just 10 innings pitched.

There are legitimate concerns over some peripherals that suggest he could be in line for further regression from his stellar 2.87 ERA this season, but this move figures to provide a boost even with a drop in effectiveness.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola form a formidable pair in front of Gibson, but then what?

They will hope Zach Eflin’s right knee issues subside for long enough to get him through 8-10 starts down the stretch, but that still leaves them looking to fill one rotation spot.

The current obvious contenders for the job have simply done nothing to illustrate they are worth of it.

In six starts since rejoining the rotation back on June 25, Matt Moore holds a 5.86 ERA in just 27 2/3 innings. Not only is that less than five innings per start, opponents are swinging it to a .273/.350/.500 slash line against him.

Vince Velasquez, who lasted just two innings in yet another disastrous outing against Pittsburgh last night, had a 12.23 ERA in five July starts. Opponents hit .360 with an obscene 1.234 OPS against him.

Update: Moore and Velasquez have since been removed from the rotation.

Are There Any Other Options?

The Phillies better hope so.

I don’t see how a team looking to erase a 3 1/2 game deficit down the stretch can give the ball to either Matt Moore or Vince Velasquez at this point. So, what are the other options? Well…

1. Sign Cole Hamels
2. Stretch out Bailey Falter when he returns from the COVID-related injured list
3. Try Chase Anderson again
4. Stretch out Ranger Suárez and see if his bullpen success translates to success as a starter

Note: It turns out the Phillies will go with both the third and fourth options above. 

Ranger Suárez is replacing Matt Moore in the starting rotation and will start Monday for the Phillies at Nationals Park. Joe Girardi expects Suárez to pitch roughly three innings, 45-50 pitches.

— Matt Breen (@matt_breen) July 31, 2021

Not a move I would make, but with Eflin still sidelined and the team adding just one starter at the deadline, this is what manager Joe Girardi feels gives his team the best chance to win.

It’s easy to understand the rationale behind it, but it’s not as if the addition of Ian Kennedy suddenly creates a surplus of outstanding bullpen options.

Believe it or not, there’s room for two (or more!) quality late-inning guys on a roster.

From this perspective, the Phillies’ best play is to let Suárez, who has a 1.12 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 27 games this season, continue to succeed in his current role as a high-leverage reliever.

Anderson eclipsed 70 pitches in four innings of work against the Pirates, so he will now take down a start or two while the team assesses its options. In fact, in the initial publication of this piece, I wrote a move to Anderson felt like a safe bet. That assertion turned out to be correct.

So, what about Hamels?

I didn’t see him pitch two weeks ago, so it would be disingenuous for me to suggest he’s a clear upgrade over their current options. But Hamels has postseason experience, will likely sign somewhere, and given the current state of the Phillies’ rotation, how could a deal possibly hurt?

Also, consider a potential signing from an optics standpoint. The Phillies should be showing their perpetually disappointed fans they are doing what they can (within reason) to end this postseason drought.

Hamels won’t be ready until late next month, so the Phillies still need help in the interim even if they pursue a reunion.

Falter, who has a 4.50 ERA in nine games this season, is a possible option when he returns, but what is his conditioning and endurance currently like after a second COVID-related IL stint this month?

Closing Time

Somehow, the Phillies’ rotation issues trumped their bullpen woes in the final two weeks before the trade deadline.

Still, Joe Girardi desperately needed a dependable late-inning arm added to the mix, and he now has it in Ian Kennedy.

The 36-year-old has a 2.51 ERA with 16 saves this season and joins the Phillies at the end of a month in which he didn’t allow a run in five appearances. He’s striking out more than a batter per inning and has walked only seven hitters in 32 1/3 innings this season.

Girardi has previously said he prefers defined roles for his relievers. With Suárez moving to the rotation, it looks like Kennedy is the guy.

Everybody Loves a Reunion

If I told you last month a Cole Hamels reunion with the Phillies was coming, you probably would have gone for that.

What about a Freddy Galvis reunion?

While big bats previously connected with the Phillies like Kris Bryant and Starling Marte headed west this week, the Phillies brought back Galvis. Not exactly a headline-grabber, no, but the move could prove to be a valuable addition.

Galvis isn’t an advanced defensive metric darling, sporting a -1 defense runs saved this season, but he presents a significant upgrade over both Alec Bohm (-12 DRS at third base) and Didi Gregorius (-9 DRS at shortstop), so he could work in at both spots as a late-game defensive upgrade or even see some spot time in center field.

Of course, with Gregorius now down to a .206 average and .639 OPS while playing poor defense, it’s possible Galvis gets a number of starts at shortstop down the stretch. After all, his .249 average and .720 OPS this season represents an uptick in production.

Spencer, We Hardly Knew Ye

A quick word on Spencer Howard.

Blisters, calluses, shoulder problems, and conditioning concerns plagued Howard during his brief time in Philadelphia. It’s entirely understandable why Howard fell out of favor with fans and a front office that didn’t draft or develop the former top pitching prospect.

Every start seemed to follow a familiar pattern: dominance, velo dip, head-scratching early exit.

But the 25-year-old has talent, and to simply dismiss that is to write off the player not because of a lack of ability but because of a larger lack of belief in an organization that has failed to either identify or develop young talent for years.

In other words, just because Kyle Drabek and a number of other never-was prospects didn’t pan out doesn’t mean Howard will be a bust.

Opponents hit just .107 with a .331 OPS against Howard as a starting pitcher the first time he worked through the order this season. That doesn’t happen completely by accident.

Will he able to unlock some longevity with a more stable development plan in Texas?

Maybe. Maybe not. But I wouldn’t totally write him off just yet.

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