6 Steps to Help You Survive in Any NFL Survivor Pool Contest

One of the most popular ways to gamble nationwide centers around NFL “Survivor” pools. Football fans who don’t ordinarily bet money on single games regularly pony up an entry fee to participate in these season-long contests.

Once a player picks a team, however, that team can no longer be picked again. Eventually, as the field is whittled down from many to a select few, the remaining survivors are forced to rely on increasingly mediocre teams to claim the winner-take-all prize.

1. Read the Contest’s Rules and Regulations Carefully

Whether you’re hopping in an old buddy’s annual $100 contest, or heading out to Sin City to play the Circa’s $1,000 big league version, survivor pools typically follow the same basic structure.

*The NFL recently voted to adopt an expanded 17-game schedule over an 18-week season beginning in 2021.

But while these rules form the foundation for every survivor pool, they definitely don’t play out in the same fashion across the board.

And if you decide to play the epic $6 million guaranteed Circa Survivor contest this year, originator Derek Stevens has a few wrinkles lying in wait.

In kind, those survivors split a $2.39 million prize pool to earn individual payouts of $68,285.71 apiece.

I’m willing to wager that, out of the thousands who sign up for Circa Survivor this year, a couple dozen will do so not knowing a thing about these extra weeks. And without full knowledge of the rules, these players will see their odds of survival cut even slimmer as a result.

2. Study the Full Schedule and Create an Early Season Game Plan

For many survivor pool rookies, the concept of sports betting strategy boils down to one basic trick—pick the biggest available favorite on the board every week.

This approach can work, for a while anyway, because identifying the most likely straight up winners ahead of a single NFL week isn’t exactly rocket science. When elite squads like the Kansas City Chiefs or Tampa Bay Buccaneers take the field against vastly overmatched opponents, taking the top contenders is only natural.

Rather than taking things week by week, the best survivor pool specialists try to devise a game plan that accounts for a full 18-week gauntlet. By looking at the full schedule and scheming out various “road maps” through the season, these players are playing chess instead of checkers.

Obviously, choosing Patrick Mahomes and his electric Chiefs offense to outscore most opponents isn’t all that difficult. The key to survivor pools, however, is choosing which week represents the optimal point to play these top-quality options.

3. Target the League’s Worst Bottom Feeders

The central conceit of a survivor pool is the removal of previously picked teams from a player’s arsenal.

Indeed, one of the most effective survivor pool strategies centers around ruthlessly targeting the league’s worst teams. Every year, a few hapless franchises suffer through seasons where even a single win is hard to come by.

Think about those atrocious records for a moment. As a survivor pool player, you could have scored *30* easy weekly winners over the last two seasons alone simply by “fading” Jacksonville. Of course, even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally, so bottom-feeder teams can and will notch surprising upsets here and there.

4. Try to Avoid “Following the Herd” by Blindly Backing Big Favorites

I discussed the inherent draw of big point spread favorites in the schedule planning entry, so we’ll keep this one short and sweet.

Simply put, this metric describes how many players in your pool are picking a particular team.

Savvy survivor pool players like to track sportsbook data to identify the most heavily bet on favorites. By avoiding these “public darlings,” smart players enjoy two huge advantages:

• A major upset instantly decimates the field, making your ultimate survival that much easier
• By avoiding great teams when they’re public darlings, you keep them for yourself when the stakes ramp up

If you want to enjoy the unique thrill of late-season survivor pool play, using ownership percentage to guide your pick selection process is essential.

5. Take Full Advantage When Injuries Force QB Backups

Going into the 2020 season, the Dallas Cowboys were widely regarded as Super Bowl contenders.

Just like that, the Cowboys were forced to field backup Andy Dalton, and while he fared admirably, the drop-off from Dak to Dalton was too steep to overcome.

Accordingly, survivor pool success is innately connected to the QBs under center. Whenever you get a chance to pick against backups like Dalton, or rank rookies on bad teams like Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars) and Zach Wilson (Jets), you must pounce on the opportunity.

6. Save at Least One Juggernaut to Fall Back on for the Endgame

You’ve survived through 13 weeks of brutal pool play to secure a “heads-up” spot against one remaining opponent. The top prize is a cool $10,000, but this is an old-school winner-take-all affair. Having rode the best teams and biggest favorites, however, your cupboard is bare rolling into the critical Week 14 contest.

Of course, despite his fleeting moments of “Fitzmagic,” the aging signal-caller owns a 59-86-1 career record. He plays a sloppy game, throwing three picks and failing on 4^th down with a winning field goal attempt only a few yards away.

To avoid this all too common fate, make a point to keep one elite team on your proverbial bench. When the most important decision points arrive, and your opponents are left scanning the middle of the standings for a Hail Mary, you’ll have one last stiff arm to throw their way.

Conclusion

Survivor pools are an incredibly cost-effective way for football fans to enjoy a bit of gambling on the side.

Whether you’re playing for the first time, or hoping to reach the endgame after years of early exits, here’s to hoping these tips help you survive whether at a physical or online sportsbook.

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