2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Preview and Predictions

The 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award should be a good race between three of four players this year. As the NFL increasingly becomes an offensive driven league with rules skewed towards favoring the offenses, there are still some terrific defenders in the NFL that rise above that and consistently disrupt. Nick Bosa, TJ Watt, Chase Young, Aaron Donald, and Myles Garrett are all impact players that can change a game with one or two plays. Remove them from their teams and the defense immediately takes a hit.

Bosa missed time last season, and while the 49ers’ defense survived, it was clear something was missing from the 49ers. If Bosa stays healthy, he’s going to be in the running for the award. It’s a big IF with Bosa after being carted off the field with an ACL injury last year. Most of the front runners on the odds board have dealt with serious injuries at some point, so it may very well be a case of last man standing given the talent. Head below for our 2021 NFL Defensive Player of the Year predictions.

Myles Garrett – Cleveland Browns

Myles Garrett looks like a tank and moves like an athletic linebacker. Garrett is a force on the edge and needs to be double teamed to slow down. He has recorded double-digit sacks in three straight seasons, with 13.5, 10, and 12 most recently a season ago. Garrett was unable to record a career-high last year, but he made the most tackles in his career with 48 combined.

His rookie campaign in 2017 was the only season that Garrett didn’t book at least 10 sacks. Note that Garrett was dealing with a hamstring injury a few weeks ago, though he was listed as day-to-day and it wasn’t anything reportedly serious. He should be set to be on the defense for Week 1 against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Garrett looks to help improve a Cleveland defense that allowed 358.4 yards against per game. They also gave up 26.2 points per game.

Garrett is the favorite to win the Defensive Player of the Year, but the rest of the defense is going to have to come through for the Browns. This is an individual award, though like the rest of them, it helps a lot when the effort is reflected in the overall team stats as well. The Browns’ defense is not going to be in elite territory yet, so it’s one thing to consider that might hurt Garrett. The next player on our shortlist was not only elite, but the defense of his team was elite, too.

Aaron Donald – Los Angeles Rams

Aaron Donald won his third DPOY award last year on the best defense in the NFL. It’s the third time in four years that Donald has won the prestigious award for the best defender in the league. Unlike Garrett, Donald was on a Rams team that were aggressive defensively on all levels.

The Rams conceded 281.9 yards and 18.5 points per game. Donald played a big role in making the Rams the best defense in the league. He notched 45 combined tackles and 13.5 sacks. It’s the fifth season that Donald has conceded at least 10 sacks in his six-year career. Donald made it hard on himself to break a career-high after recording an insane 20.5 sacks in 2018.

It’s hard to see him surpassing that mark again, but Donald will continue to be a brick wall on the defensive line. The Rams as a defense shouldn’t show much regression this season as well. He has largely been durable in his career, but had to fight through pain in the playoffs against the Green Bay Packers.

Donald was dealing with a torn rib cartilage and he wasn’t nearly as effective. He’s already 30, believe it or not, so going to be playing with some miles on his body. You of course can’t write him off, he’s one of the best players in the NFL, offense and defense included, but something to keep in mind.

TJ Watt – Pittsburgh Steelers

TJ Watt is coming off a standout season where he won the AFC Defensive Player of the Year award. If Aaron Donald suffered a season-ending injury and didn’t play last season, it would have been Watt winning the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. For all of the talk of Myles Garrett, Chase Young, and Nick Bosa, Watt is the player that finished second in voting for DPOY. He might have deserved the award just as much as Donald did. Watt was active all over the field and did a little bit of everything. The outside linebacker had a season-high 15 sacks with 53 combined tackles.

He also had an interception for the fourth of his four-year career. Watt was listed as the No. 9 player on the NFL Top 100 list going into the 2021 campaign. If it were up to me, I’d have Watt in the top-5 without question. He’s a game changer that can turn a game around in coverage or as a pass-rusher. The Pittsburgh defense allowed an average of 305.8 yards and 19.5 points per game, falling just short of the Rams in both regards. After missing out on DPOY last year, it can only serve as more motivation for Watt in 2021. He just missed out last year, and has to be seen as a big value play at these odds.

Final Verdict and NFL Defensive Player of the Year Prediction

I don’t believe that TJ Watt is getting the respect he deserves with the odds to win the Defensive Player of the Year in 2021. He finished second only next to Aaron Donald, and was the AFC DPOY. Despite his accomplishments on the field, the oddsmakers don’t seem to care much for Watt. I have to believe that they’re just playing to the public and following the money.

If the odds were determining who the best defensive player in the NFL actually is from their on the field work, then Watt has to be higher than +1200. You have to believe if he duplicates or does better than his 15 sacks, Watt can’t be ignored for DPOY after coming up short of Donald in 2020. Based on the value presented here, the best bet is probably on the Steeler. Voters just have to give him the respect he rightfully deserves.