2021 3M Open First-Round Leader Odds & Prediction: 6 Picks for Thursday at TPC Twin Cities

After an exciting week at The Open (and the Barbasol), the PGA TOUR heads to the Midwest for the 3M Open. Despite being sandwiched between a major and the Olympics, the field in Minnesota is set to be better than I expected.

Players will tee it up at TPC Twin Cities, which features bentgrass greens that are basically Kansas (a.k.a. flat) compared to the greens at Royal St. George’s. This should give an edge to the players who played the Barbasol last week.

However, the course requires accuracy, which favors those who played in The Open.

Hopefully you saw my Louis Oosthuizen FRL tip last week and won big. If you didn’t, that’s OK. You have another chance this week. Here’s a look at my favorite FRL bets for the 3M Open.

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Louis Oosthuizen | +2000

I know recency bias is big, but so is my belief in Lodewicus Theodorus Oosthuizen. Despite a strong start last week, Louis didn’t win, but he did cash for FRL at The Open. He finished T-3, his first start after a runner-up finish at the US Open.

His ball-striking numbers have been great, and not much else needs to be said for how well he is playing.

Tony Finau | +2200

The long hitter had another high finish in a major last week, tying for 15th. His ball-striking was solid, but he struggled a bit on the greens. This week, the greens should be easier for him. Despite not being a great putter, bent is his best surface.

Finau has been a very consistent player this season despite a handful of missed cuts. I like him at a course like TPC Twin Cities where accuracy is key and the greens are relatively flat.

Cameron Tringale | +3000

Here’s a guy who usually plays well on Thursday. Saturday and Sunday are another issue, but thankfully, we only care about Round 1 right now.

You’re getting fairly short odds on Tringale this week, but these are the kinds of tournaments where he does well.

He finished in the top 30 at The Open and racked up a top 20 at the Rocket Mortgage. Tringale still hasn’t broken through on tour with a win, but he’s been consistent and has made cuts this season.

Hank Lebioda | +5500

The former Florida State (ew — go Gators!) golfer is my favorite outright and top-10 bet this week. He has three top-10s in his last three starts. In addition, bentgrass is his best putting surface by a mile.

Lebioda’s ball-striking numbers are great right now, gaining an average of eight shots a round in his last five events. Strokes Gained: Approach will be an important metric here, and Hank’s SG:APP has improved in every one of his last three starts.

Jhonattan Vegas | +6000

The Venezuelan’s odds this week might be the most surprising to me (as they have been for a few weeks now). Vegas has not missed a cut since April (Valero) and owns three top-11 finishes since then.

His last start was a T-11 at the John Deere, where Vegas started to show some more great form. He has been getting off to decent starts recently and is poised for another solid start this week.

Patton Kizzire | +6000

Kizzire had two third-place finishes back in June before missing three consecutive cuts. Coming off of that MC string, Kizzire notched a T-25 and a T-11 in his next two starts.

The Auburn alum took the last week off and is coming into the 3M Open refreshed. I love how his game is trending, and I’m looking to him for a solid finish this week.