Week 16 NFL Picks: Last Chance Value Picks and Bookie Busters!

Our Last Chance Value Picks swept the board last week and we are now 13-2 ATS over the last five weeks. Let’s bust the books all over again in our Week 16 NFL picks and keep cashing those tickets!

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, December 27, 2020 – 4:05 PM ET at SoFi Stadium

The Broncos roared back from a, 24-3, third-quarter deficit to steal a 31-30 victory over the Chargers in their first meeting. I say they can do it again, only this time without the dramatics. Several trends are working in favor of Denver in this matchup and others working against the Bolts. Let’s take a look at the following:

• Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.

• Broncos are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on field-turf.

• Broncos are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following an ATS loss.

• Chargers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 16.

• Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.

We are now getting north of the magical number three and the difference in talent between these teams is marginal despite what you might believe. The Chargers have two big names in Joey Bosa and Justin Herbert, but Bosa has just been ruled out of this game. This is a huge break for Drew Lock and the Broncos’ offense to generate some aerial heat against the Chargers’ secondary. Bosa’s bookend, Uchenna Nwosu, will also be on the sidelines for this one with a knee injury. Grab the 3.5 and include Denver in your best bets on Sunday.

NFL Pick: Broncos +3.5 (-120) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Broncos +3.5(-120)

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Carolina Panthers vs. Washington Football Team

Sunday, December 27, 2020 - 4:05 PM ET at FedEx Field

The Panthers’ resident superstar, Christian McCaffrey, is doubtful for this game which is a good thing if you’re backing Washington. The NFL odds are reflecting the No Names as a pick, tumbling all the way down from a three-point favorite. Some of that has to do with quarterback Alex Smith being questionable for this game, but let’s not look at the veteran quarterback as anything more than what he really is – a game manager. Even backup Dwayne Haskins is capable of that!

These teams are fairly even in terms of talent but one thing we do know is that Washington has the home-field advantage and the motivation of copping a playoff berth. Meanwhile, Carolina has neither of that going for them, having already been eliminated from postseason contention.

NFL Pick: Washington PK (-120) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Washington PK(-120)

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Tennessee Titans vs. Green Bay Packers

Sunday, December 27, 2020 - 4:25 PM ET at Lambeau Field

The sharps are buying big on the Titans which is why this line has plummeted from 4.5 to 3 at all of the best online sportsbooks. Some of that action has to do with Green Bay missing two starting offensive linemen, which could be problematic for Aaron Rodgers. However, we are talking about one of the greatest QB’s ever to toss the pigskin so let’s not get carried away.

The Packers have also had an extra day to prepare after defeating the Panthers last Saturday. While that might not seem very important, every extra hour a team gets to lick their wounds at this point in the season is a big deal.

If it’s trends you seek, then look no further than the Packers being 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. They are also 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.

If the folks over at BookMaker want to give me a sharp number on a great team then who am I to say no?

NFL Pick: Packers -3 (-110) at BookMaker (visit our BookMaker Review)

Packers -3(-110)

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