If you’re anything like me, the first time math really made much sense didn’t occur in the classroom or on the calculator.
Instead, watching football games with my father as a young child helped me visualize basic math concepts like addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. To this day, I can instantly conjure the multiplication tables for “7 times X” simply by replacing the numbers with touchdowns on the scoreboard.
As an adult, and an avid football bettor, I’ve realized that the game’s scoring system is seemingly designed to accentuate certain mathematical rules, or “key numbers” if you will.
What Are Key Numbers in Football Betting and Why to Care?
First things first, if you’re unfamiliar with the concept of “key numbers” relative to wagering on football, here’s a basic crash course.
Have you ever noticed that final scores in football, and pregame point spreads for that matter, seem to follow a noticeable pattern?
Scanning the Sunday scoreboard will show a long lineup of games settled by finals that look like this:
- Miami Dolphins 27/Buffalo Bills 24
- Arizona Cardinals 21/Los Angeles Rams 14
- KC Chiefs 40/New Orleans Saints 34
- Las Vegas Raiders 20/Cleveland Browns 10
What these scores all have in common is simple. They all fall exactly on one of football’s five key numbers—3, 4, 6, 7, and 10.
Key numbers are created thanks to football’s traditional scoring system, in which touchdowns typically* count for 7 points and field goals are worth 3 points.
*Leaving aside the odd 2-point conversion or missed extra point
As it turns out, those” who first pioneered the rough and tumble sport of football a century ago were also closet math geeks. They must have been, because scaling the sport’s primary scoring plays along the spectrum was a stroke of numerical genius.
Remember, that 7-point differential represents one of our key numbers to keep your eye on.
From there, the Pats reach the red zone but stall out, leading to a field goal and a 7-3 deficit.
Once again, the 4-point differential lands on another of the five key numbers.
The Jets do what the Jets have always done and throw a bad interception straight to a Patriots defender, who promptly takes it to the house for a “pick six.”
The score is now 10-7 in New England’s favor, and wouldn’t you know it?
The new differential of 3 points nails yet another key number.
After forcing a three-and-out, the New England defense sets its offense up for one of their signature “daggers” via 55-yard slant and score.
The scoreboard reads 17-7 at this point, with the 10-point differential finding one more of the five key numbers.
Finally, after the Jets score a fourth-quarter touchdown to bring the score to 17-14 (key numbers abound in this game), the Patriots offense kills the clock before kicking a long field goal.
New York fails to divine a miracle comeback with a minute to go, leaving the final score showing a 20-14.
And as you can probably guess by now, that 6-point differential covers the last space on our key number bingo card.
As you can see, this admittedly contrived, but entirely plausible, football scoring exercise demonstrates the importance of key numbers. Because of the almost beautiful relationship between the numbers 7 and 3, and the sheer abundance of touchdowns and field goals scored, football finals will wind up landing on key numbers with uncanny frequency.
Don’t take my word for it though, just scan the table below to see how various margins of victory have historically sorted out in the National Football League (NFL):
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Margin of Victory Probabilities in the NFL (Since 1990)
When you add up the probabilities—3 (14.6%), 7 (9.3%), 6 (6.1%), 10 (5.5%), and 4 (5.1%)—the likelihood of your NFL game ending on a key number comes to 40.6%.
And when the outlier of a 22+ point blowout is removed from the equation, key numbers will hit on the majority of close football scores.
Which Key Numbers Crop Up More Than Others?
As the data above makes crystal clear, the most crucial of all key numbers is 3, which stands as the margin of victory in a whopping 14.6% of all NFL games.
The reasons for this are readily apparent to any football fan or bettor, with tied games typically settled by a successful two-minute drill capped off by a game-winning field goal.
Alternatively, a game stuck at a 4-point differential (surprise, another key number…) winds up at 3 points when the losing team scores a game-winning touchdown. From there, the next key number to occur most often will naturally be 7 at a 9.3% clip. Once again, this likelihood is obviously explained by the essential role of touchdowns in football scoring.
Next up on the key number totem pole are 6 (6.1%), 10 (5.5%), and 4 (5.1%). In each case, these score differentials are generally twice as likely to occur as any other “random” number like 5 (3.5%) or 11 (2.6%).
Knowing these numbers cold, sportsbook oddsmakers have historically tilted their point spreads to lean as close to the key numbers as possible. That way, when the public lines up to fire on either side of a (-3) vs. (+3) matchup, nearly 15% of games will produce a push for all bettors, and pure profit for the bet shop thanks to the “juice” or “vig” they charge.
How Can I Utilize Key Numbers to Improve My Betting Bottom Line?
Now that you know how key numbers work, it’s time to put these mathematical truisms to work during the Fall football season.
But first, one point to remember before getting started.
The next time you’re sizing up a slate of football point spreads at your favorite NFL betting sites, always remain cognizant of the key numbers in play.
Let’s look at the spreads that were posted for Week 1 of the season:
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Point Spreads for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL Season
Houston Texans (+9.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5)Miami Dolphins (+6.5) @ New England Patriots (-6.5)
Cleveland Browns (+8) @ Baltimore Ravens (-8)
New York Jets (+6) @ Buffalo Bills (-6)
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) @ Carolina Panthers (+3)
Seattle Seahawks (-2) @ Atlanta Falcons (+2)
Philadelphia Eagles (-6) @ Washington Football Team (+6)
Chicago Bears (+3) @ Detroit Lions (-3)
Indianapolis Colts (-8) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+8)
Green Bay Packers (+2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals (+3)
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) @ San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) @ New Orleans Saints (-3)
Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams (+3)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) @ New York Giants (+6)
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) @ Denver Broncos (+2.5)
And there you have it. In Week 1, the bookmakers have tagged exactly half of the 16 games on tap with key number point spreads. Add in the five spreads set (0.5) off a key number and you’ll see 13 of the 16 games on the schedule hinging directly on key numbers.
As per the historical data, 3-point differentials reign supreme with five games on the docket, plus another pair with a (2.5) spread.
As a football bettor, you should use your knowledge of key numbers and their frequencies to inform the tougher decisions.
But even if a 6-point game isn’t in the offing, any final score between 1- and 5-points—a 30.7% cumulative probability—will stamp your ticket as a winner.
Another way to exploit key numbers is by backing the favorite when they’re laying slightly less than a key number. The season-opening Chiefs (-9.5) vs. Texans game is a perfect example, as the final score will land on a 10-point differential 5.5% of the time.
Watch out for those (2.5) spreads too if you like betting favorites. Knowing that nearly 15% of all games wind up with a 3-point differential, why would you ever take the (+2.5) spread and risk losing by the dreaded hook?
Turning a (+3) spread into (+3.5) is well worth the additional juice you’ll pay given the likelihood of a final score separated by 3 points. Conversely, buying a (-3) spread down to (-2.5) will greatly reduce your chances of losing a bet by the slimmest of half-point margins.
Conclusion
Key numbers were given that name for good reason, as the data presented above should make abundantly clear. After all, you only have so many permutations of field goals and touchdowns on the table.
Thus, absent any funny business with safeties, 2-point conversions, missed extra points, or big blowouts, you’ll find that most close games will invariably come down to two teams separated by a key number.
Savvy sports bettors squeeze every penny of potential profit out of slim edges, so tinker around on your next football betting adventure to see how key numbers can work in your favor.