UFC Fight Night Parlay Party – December 19

Everybody loves a good party and what better way to kick off an all nighter than cashing a sweet parlay ticket at 1 am. What’s that? Nobody parties after midnight anymore?

Really? Yes. Curfews abound across the world. Well, it’s probably better you don’t waste it. Christmas is right around the corner, after all. Parlays are a lot of fun but boy can they be painful sometimes.

There is nothing like regret because it’s a difficult emotion to hurdle with ease. It takes you to the past and then after you reach for the future, you have one leg in yesterday, the other in tomorrow, and well, you know the rest.

We have to take the losses when they come because most of the parlays we do are plus money so even if we’re flipping a coin each time, we will make money in the long run.

2020 has been a good year for our parlay parties but I have also learned a lot in the process. If we can win and still learn and grow, then the success will soon be exponential.

One of the fighters who was at the top of the invite list was Belal Muhammad. I mentioned earlier in the week that he was a great anchor for your parlays but the COVID or false positive bug hit once again and his fight with Dhiego Lima was a wrap.

Replacing Belal will be…

BetOnline has our odds for us so let’s have ourselves a nice Christmas Party.

Tafon Nchukwi + Pannie Kianzad: +220

Yes, Santa has been watching you but the old man has become forgiving at his age and bestows upon thee a gift. A true gift. (+220) for a 2-fight parlay?

Isn’t that going to be risky? Yea, sure, it’ll be a little dangerous but I feel great about Pannie and the betting line should be flipped, at least. She gets no love from anyone it seems and the fan in me wants her to get her recognition but my capper and bettor side says no way.

Stay under the radar and in the plus money for as long as possible. I just don’t see how you can argue for Sarge to be the favorite.

Sarge has gained some muscle to catch up her smaller frame somewhat but Pannie isn’t the long lanky type that would give Sarge a major edge in strength. I think Kianzad boxes her up and defends the takedowns.

Eubanks looked good against Avila because Avila looked horrific. She was used to coming out super aggressive and running over people. Sarge hung tough and put it on her late but Kianzad isn’t that type of fighter.

She is smart and calculated and I think a slightly better fighter than Sarge, much younger, and bigger as well.

And who is Tafon Nchukwi, right?

Are we sure we want to put this relatively unknown guy on our parlay. There is already a women’s fight on there and there is more parody in the women’s divisions.

Hear me out, though.

Think Clubber Lang with far better technique. He has ran through everyone who has been put in front of him. He has a great Jiu Jitsu coach in Master Lloyd Irvin.

If I were more impressed with his opponent this Saturday night, Jamie Pickett, then maybe we stay away from the inexperience. The UFC is already releasing 8 minute segments on this guy. He has a great story as an immigrant from Cameroon growing up in America.

I think he cracks Pickett early and gets him out of there. He might even take him down. Jamie has porous takedown defense. Tafon Da Don talks about being a world champion one day and if that’s truly the case, then it would behoove him to continue his evolution in all aspects of mixed martial arts.

Don’t just rely on your power even if it almost always works.

I will take him and Pannie here, though, for a sexy (+220) payout. 2 units!

Pick: Nchukwi + Kianzad

Nchukwi + Kianzad + Flick: +433

Ho, ho, ho!!!

Christmas is coming early this year! Donner and Blitzen are pulling their weight finally so you could see your gifts in record time. Hey, it had to be an early stop because the UFC is taking 3 weeks off over the holidays.

That is a bummer but many of the January fights are already scheduled so it’s just more time to work towards more profit.

Getting (+433) on just 3 fighters to win is pretty rad. There is always risk but I could honestly see all three of these fights being clean wins. Pannie will likely win a unanimous decision.

The only thing I’m worried about is Sarge stalling on the cage and/or getting a takedown or two but Kianzad is a great play at (+140) and the juice she adds to the parlay payouts is certainly worth the squeeze.

He took down a college wrestler in his last fight. I don’t remember Durden having any elite accolades so I have Jimmy taking this fight to the mat probably in the first round and submitting Cody Durden.

Pick: Nchukwi + Kianzad + Flick

Nchukwi + Kianzad + Flick + Rodriguez: +714

We are getting up there!

This 4-leg isn’t that far fetched either. The implied probability of (+714) is only 12% but I think the likelihood of these four hitting is much higher.

I’ve gone through our justifications for the first three fighters and Drako Rodriguez is another favorite who isn’t ultra experienced therefore he isn’t overly juiced and unaffordable. He is a very strong fighter and a solid prospect coming into Saturday night’s fight with a record of 7-1.

His only loss was to one of our winners from about a month ago, Virginia’s own, Tony Gravely. It was a TKO loss for Drako but it came in the 5th round. Gravely has outstanding wrestling and the athletic ability and brains to match.

Since, he has won 3 straight including a first round triangle choke victory in his Contender Series bout. This was just back on September 20th so he is hitting it perfectly about 12 weeks later.

That is more than enough time to stay ready and peak. He is just 24 years old and I’m sure some lab time is mixed in there as well. His opponent, Firas Zahabi’s brother, and we will just call him that because that is the whole reason he is in the UFC, is coming off of nearly a 20 month break.

That is after losing two straight in the UFC including getting knocked out and in his most recent fight, losing to Vince Morales. That isn’t a good look for a guy fighting a hot prospect.

I suppose Drako has been taken down before and that will be a fairly clear path to victory for the BJJ blackbelt if he can but it’s going to take him a bit to adjust to the speed of things and by then, it will probably be too late.

Pick: Nchukwi + Kianzad + Flick + Rodriguez

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

In Conclusion

There you have ‘em, guys. I hope you’re ready to party. Just wear your mask, socially distance, especially if you eat too many deviled eggs, and hopefully we can cash some big tickets on Saturday night.

Tafon Da Don is going to be the shorter man in his fight against Jamie Pickett but he is 6 years younger and light years faster. One thing people aren’t talking about and we haven’t yet either is Nchukwi’s defense.

It is very good as well and that is not something you can say about a lot of green power punchers.

Pannie is my pick of the night. She was at first, in the middle of the week, and unless we see something extremely odd happen at the weigh ins, I still like her.

She is the dog too and someone stayed that way. Throw in Jimmy The Brick Flick to slide those wiry arms under the neck of Cody Durden early on or later. It doesn’t matter. I think Flick gets the w and I’m nearly as confident that he gets the submission as well.

Finally, Draco Rodriguez is still unproven but I think his speed advantage will be too much too soon for the Zahabi brother coming off of a long layoff.

Get those bets in now and remember that these big plus money payouts aren’t meant to turn on your greed. They are supposed to give you a happy feeling because you only need to wager a little to win a lot.