If you have been reading our picks this week, then you have heard all about these fighters we are going to talk about today.
Gabriel Benitez, Movsar Evloev, and Ilia Topuria are all more than 2 to 1 favorites. The Russian is actually more than a 6 to 1 favorite right now which is a little crazy if you ask me.
Let’s throw out a few flyers today on some method of victory props for these guys.
What is a flyer, you ask?
Well, essentially you’re making a paper airplane and giving it a go from the back of the class in hopes of a bullseye right in the math teacher’s hair bun.
Are you likely to be successful on each try?
No but give me an hour of detention and I can make some pretty rad planes.
BetOnline.AG has the betting lines for us this week. Let’s pick some long odds flyers that have a good percentage of hitting.
Benitez by Submission: +500
Gabriel has 2 of his 5 UFC wins by way of guillotine. Justin Jaynes is probably going to try to get this fight to the mat and it may be a panic shot after he is rocked by a kick.
Justin has only been submitted once, though, in his professional mixed martial arts career but this tap out was in his last fight opposite Gavin Tucker. The Canadian, Tucker, is a very good martial artist and when he can put it together, is very impressive.
A decision win is the most likely outcome here as Jaynes is very durable but you have to take into account how game he is as well, and that will lead to him taking more risks. When someone is better than you, those risks can get you finished.
Evloev by Submission: +450
I already tipped this one in my Evloev pick. I couldn’t get behind the (-600) betting odds like most people so method of victory it is.
This one is tough, though. Movsar isn’t a big finisher having gone to the judges’ scorecards in all three of his fights inside the Octagon. Looking at his M-1 fights, an organization his opponent Nate Landwehr was a part of at the time as well, Ev has 3 rear naked choked victories.
He is a smart smart fighter who takes the path of least resistance and I think getting a cardio machine with a chin for days like Nate The Train Landwehr out of there ASAP is the way to go.
Don’t let this guy hang around. Force him to give his back on a stand up after a takedown and get that neck, Movsar!
Topuria by TKO: +350
Ilia Topuria is one of the most technical and physically gifted mixed martial artists in the UFC right now and this is just his second fight on the big show. Is he smart, though?
I must say he doesn’t look that smart and hear me out: This is a compliment.
He is chiseled and handsome with extreme confidence. Was he just blessed with everything? If this a classic case of “Quarterback face”, then Ilia Topuria is as mentally gifted as he is physically.
If that is truly the case, then we have a future world champion on our hands. Just like the submission victory for Evloev is the path of least resistance, the TKO win is the same trail to the top for Topuria.
Jackson, like Landwehr, is a cardio machine with excellent durability. Damon is much more of a threat on the ground, though, so I think Ilia should keep this one standing and land a bomb over the top after he backs up the tall, bad center of gravity guy up against the fence.
In Conclusion
These will be fun! You know why?
Well, hopefully because one or maybe even two of them will hit but also because there is no pressure. We already made our smart picks for the week and these will be for fun.
Value is value but it is rarely found in the main event.
We hit on Khab and Uriah Hall’s methods of victory in back-to-back weekends for a couple of (+165) payouts.
The betting odds today are a little longer and therefore almost surely less likely to hit but all we need is one and we profit. Get your bets in now and enjoy a high level show on Saturday!
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