The best three underdogs for Week 11 of the NFL Season

There have already been a ton of upsets in the NFL during this bizarre 2020 season, and they’re not going to stop anytime soon. Things are up in the air during the 2020 campaign more than ever, which should lead to some truly wild outcomes.

There’s often value on NFL underdogs, and with that in mind today we’ll be breaking down a few of our favorite underdog picks for Week 10:

1. Atlanta Falcons +5 @ New Orleans Saints

This spread feels pretty inflated considering Drew Brees isn’t playing. Oddsmakers seem to be just assuming New Orleans’ offense will be just fine because they did decently with Teddy Bridgewater last year, but I’m not so sure that’ll be the case. Jameis Winston is of course far more erratic than Bridgewater, and he has barely had any practice reps in Sean Payton’s system due to the abridged offseason.

Bridgewater threw only two interceptions in 5.5 games as the Saints’ starter last year, and there’s no way that’ll be the case with Winston. All that aside, the Falcons are also quietly playing really well at the moment. They’re 3-1 since Dan Quinn got fired, and the only thing preventing them from being 4-0 was an incredibly improbable Todd Gurley mental miscue that caused them to lose by one to the Lions. Atlanta is better than most people realize, and as you can read in our full-game preview, we think they’ve got a good shot to win this one outright.

2. Tennessee Titans +6.5 @ Baltimore Ravens

Something is seriously wrong with this Ravens offense, and there’s no way they should be this large of a favorite against a solid team like the Titans. Tennessee’s struggles have been far too overblown in the media, as two of their three losses this season have come to great Steelers and Colts teams. The Titans need to get Derrick Henry going again, and they should be able to against a banged up Ravens defensive line that will be missing stud starters Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams in this one.

Lamar Jackson just hasn’t been the same this season, and defenses seem to be catching up to Baltimore offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who has gone away from the creativity that got them to their heights last year. Both teams need this one like blood and I expect it to come down to the wire, so getting 6.5 points is far too much value to pass up.

3. Los Angeles Rams +4 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I think the Buccaneers are pretty fraudulent, and this is another toss-up game where there’s value on the underdog getting too many points. There have been red flags for a while now with this Tampa team, even before the bludgeoning they endured at the hands of the Saints. Just the week before that they only beat the Giants by two points as massive favorites, escaping because Daniel Jones was late on a two-point conversion throw.

This Rams defense is quietly playing like one of the best in the league, and if they were able to shutdown Russell Wilson last week, they will more than hold their own here. I don’t think Tampa is back just because they picked up a win over a rapidly falling apart Panthers team that has lost five in a row, and Tom Brady should struggle with Aaron Donald in his face all night. We’ve also got pretty strong thoughts on the total in that game.

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