South Carolina vs. Houston NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions

The South Carolina Gamecocks visit the Houston Cougars on Saturday. Houston goes for their fourth straight win this season. Can South Carolina keep up with them? Here’s a complete preview, including updated odds and our NCAA Basketball pick.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Houston Cougars

Saturday, December 05, 2020 – 09:30 PM EST at Fertitta Center

The Numbers Don't Lie

Time to bring in the quants. Comparing the following projections to the NCAA Basketball odds will help us make the right choice:

ESPN's Basketball Power Index: Houston

Equivalent Odds (using SBR’s Odds Converter): -383

Houston opened as a 10-point favorite. For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has Houston at -11.11 this week using his Rating numbers, and TBD using his eigenvector analysis. That doesn’t leave room to grab some potential betting value with South Carolina +10.5. There’s a gap between the projections and the actual NCAA Basketball odds.

Will Seventh Woods Play for South Carolina?

South Carolina could be without senior guard Seventh Woods for this visit to Houston on Saturday. Woods tweaked his knee in the first half of Sunday’s 69-58 win against Tulsa and he missed practice time during the week. “If we had a game today, he’d be out,” head coach Frank Martin said during Wednesday’s Zoom news conference with reporters. “He didn’t practice yesterday. And we’re hopeful he’ll be able to practice some tomorrow and then (have a) normal Friday. And then if his knee responds the right way, he’s good for Saturday.”

Woods made his debut with South Carolina in the 78-62 loss against Liberty on November 28th. The North Carolina transfer played 16 minutes in that game and scored eight points on 4 of 7 shooting. He then played nine minutes against Tulsa after injuring his knee in the first half. Woods was expected to be a key backcourt piece off the bench this season, rotating with Jermaine Couisnard and AJ Lawson. His experience running the point could be useful against Houston and he could provide stability. “He’s been great,” Martin said about Woods. “He’s added a dimension to our team, an energy, an athleticism, a stability, that our team needs.”

Houston Will Be Rested

Houston opened the season with wins over Lamar (89-45), Boise State (68-58) and Texas Tech (64-53). Marcus Sasser led the way against Texas Tech with 17 points and Quentin Grimes added 15 points and seven rebounds. True freshman guard Tramon Mark is one of the players to watch on Saturday. Mark scored 11 points off the bench against Texas Tech and he's averaging 14.0 points per game this season.

Each of Houston's three wins this season have been decided by double digits. UH is outscoring their opponents by an average mark of 74 to 52 but they could be shorthanded against South Carolina, since sophomore guard Caleb Mills suffered his ankle sprain of the season. Mills missed the season opener and then had 12 points in 17 minutes against Boise State. He was limited to just 11 minutes against Texas Tech and finished with four points on 2-for-5 from the field.

Prediction

South Carolina held Tulsa to just 40.4 percent shooting, including 23.5 percent from 3-point range. They looked much better on defense against Tulsa than they did against Liberty and keeping that intensity is a must if they want to compete with Houston. Houston's stiff defense has held their first three opponents to just 36.7 percent shooting while forcing almost 18 turnovers per game. South Carolina needs Couisnard, Lawson and Woods (if he's ready to go) to attack the Houston defense and create easier scoring opportunities for themselves and their teammates.

It's easier said than done and they need to use their depth at guard in case Woods is out. Sophomores T.J. Moss and Trae Hannibal have each received plenty of playing time so far and they need to step up on Saturday. I really like the Under if Woods is out. It opened at 141 and it has been bet down to 139.5 but I still like that number. As always, wait as long as possible to find out who’s playing before placing your bets.

My Pick: Under 139.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Under 139.5(-110)

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