Political Prop – Betting On Melania Divorcing Donald Trump After Election Loss

Back in September, I wrote an article about MyBookie’s “Celebrity Divorce” betting markets, two of which were about the Trump family. Not only did the piece cover the possibility of Donald and Melania getting divorced, but Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump as well.

Now, as the President’s time in office comes to an end – despite a desperate last-ditch effort to overturn Joe Biden’s victory, using a series of lawsuits, recounts, and allegations of voter fraud – the topic of a potential divorce between Donald and First Lady Melania Trump has the world of political betting buzzing with excitement once again.

The Washington Post even reported on the betting action while attempting to determine the likelihood of a split themselves.

After four years of unbridled hatred and outrage, partly fueled by the media, but not helped by Donald Trump’s rudeness and habit of calling opponents “losers,” people are getting a perverse pleasure out of the President’s downfall. They’re rooting for his personal life crumbles right along with his political career.

The Post article touches on this too, and how political media consumers search for validation for their theories:

In addition to MyBookie’s betting lines, BetOnline is offering odds on a potential split as well.

The public’s betting action confirms the outcome for which most are rooting. The Washington Post writers interviewed Dave Mason, an oddsmaker at BetOnline, who said: “most gamblers making a wager on the Trump marriage are putting their money on a divorce.”

Will Melania Ask for a Divorce?

Reasons to Bet “Yes”

On the “Yes” side of the question, most speculation is driven by a mix of vindictiveness and wishful thinking. People want to see President Trump suffer for having polluted their televisions and social media timelines for four years, forcing them to think about politics.

Omarosa and Wishful Thinking

An excellent example of this thought process can be found in quotes made last month by former White House Assistant to the President and Director of Communications for the Office of Public Liaison and Apprentice contestant Omarosa Manigault Newman.

She’s told multiple outlets that the First Lady is planning to leave as soon as possible.

“Melania is counting every minute until he is out of office and she can divorce,” Omarosa told the UK’s Mail on Sunday (a conservative Sunday newspaper and sister paper to the Daily Mail).

“If Melania were to try to pull the ultimate humiliation and leave while he’s in office, he would find a way to punish her.”

The former reality show contestant also appeared on a UK television show where she told audiences:

However, you may want to take Omarosa’s comments with a grain of salt.

Less than a year after joining the Trump administration, she was fired by White House Chief of Staff, John Kelly, for “money and integrity issues,” along with “inappropriate use of company vehicles.”

Financial Incentive

Financially, Melania would do just fine in any divorce from the President. According to Jacqueline Newman, a managing partner at Berkman, Bottger, Newman, and Rodd, the First Lady could receive around $50 million in the settlement – assuming she’s given custody of Barron.

“Given what I’ve read in the tabloids, it doesn’t seem as if there’s going to be much question as to who the primary caretaker is. My guess is that she would get primary custodial rights and he would get access whenever he happens to be in town,” Newman said in an interview with Town and Country.

The Washington Post reported that Melania renegotiated her prenuptial agreement with President Trump after the election before she’d join him in the White House.

If anything bodes well for the “Yes” crowd, it’s that shrewd move by Melania four years ago.

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Arguments for Betting “No”

What makes this prop bet tricky is how little anyone knows about Melania Trump.

She’s been with Donald longer than any of his previous wives, so are we sure she’s the archetypical “gold-digger” detractors make her out to be?

Eyes Wide Open

“A lot of people want her to leave him as some kind of a payback, but I don’t see Melania Trump to be that type of a person,” said Elizabeth J. Natalle, an associate professor at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro, who has written books about other former First Ladies, Jacqueline Kennedy, and Michelle Obama.

“She’s consistently said in her interviews that she’s a big girl,” said Natalle.

This sentiment is repeated by Stephanie Winston Wolkoff, who became a close friend of Melania’s in 2003 when the former worked at Vogue. Wolkoff would go on to assist the First Lady in the White House before writing a scathing memoir titled “Melania and Me.”

According to Mrs. Trump’s former friend, Melania would respond to Trump’s controversies by routinely saying:

President Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen, currently under house arrest for tax fraud and campaign finance violations, expects the couple to make it. “I don’t think Melania leaves Donald. She’s very willingly complicit in his schemes and holds his beliefs as her own,” Cohen told the Washington Post.

Noticing a pattern?

From the handful of people we’ve heard from with close access to the couple, it sounds like Melania is perfectly fine with the arrangement.

Behind Glass

However, it’s something else Stephanie Winston Wolkoff writes in her book makes me believe the Trumps’ relationship will survive losing the election. The author describes Melania as “honest, is loving, prizes her privacy above all things, and is faithful to her core values in a way Donald could never be.”

Compare that comment to the findings from a Medium post written by Kate Imbach, who analyzed 470 of Melania Trump’s photos between 2012 – 2015:

Once President Trump leaves office, it sounds like she’ll be living her ideal life!

Secret Service for the rest of her life, little interaction with the public, and the endless benefits of her and Donald’s transactional marriage.

Why would she ever leave that setup?