Oregon vs. USC Pac-12 Championship Game Preview

After Washington pulled out, Oregon and USC will play on Friday night for the Pac-12 Championship. At the top sports betting sites, USC is favored in this one, but not by a lot. After what Oregon has shown in its past couple of games, we have to ask ourselves if we can trust the Ducks to stay within the small number. Who should you bet on?

Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans

Friday, December 18, 2020 – 8 P.M. ET Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Replacing Justin Herbert

Replacing long-time starter and now former first-round draft pick Justin Herbert was never going to be an easy task. But after Oregon lost as 13-point favorites against Oregon State and then lost, again, as nine-point favorites against Cal, this task may be proving harder than expected.

Tyler Shough must carry responsibility for this ongoing two-game losing streak. After throwing a season-high two interceptions against the Beavers, he produced his lowest completion percentage and his lowest passer rating of the season against the Golden Bears. Before I consider Shough’s play, I just want to clarify that Shough is massively disadvantaged before he steps onto the field. He is not the kind of guy who new offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead wants to recruit.

Moorhead wants a real running threat at quarterback. Yes, Shough has decent enough speed and he can accrue some rushing yards here and there. But rather, guys like Jalen Mayden and Garrett Shrader are prototypical Moorhead quarterbacks. As recruits, both ranked among the top 20 nationally among dual-threat quarterbacks.

Shough, however, is lithely constructed. He does not make good reads in the option game that Oregon likes to execute, especially out of its pistol formation. So, he is not a Moorhead quarterback and therefore not a good fit for the offense. The thing is, for all of his deficiencies as a running quarterback, he is not much of a pocket passer either. From the pocket, he makes poor decisions. He misses viable targets in the passing game — both because he does not seem to see them and because he misses easy throws.

So his poor vision, his relative lack of arm strength make him an unreliable passer. His lack of pocket presence makes him want to get happy feet and bail, anyway, where, again, he’s not much of a runner. For the above reasons, Shough’s current struggles must seem unsurprising. And it’s not like he’s always struggling against strong pass defenses. Oregon State’s pass defense ranks similarly to USC’s.

CJ Verdell 

Coach Cristobal has been pretty cryptic about running back CJ Verdell. The Oregon Junior was supposed to be one of the PAC-12’s top running backs if not the best one. Verdell is a strong, powerful runner, but he’s failed to reach 40 yards rushing in each of his last three contests.

His reduced threat creates greater responsibility for Travis Dye, who is a smaller, quicker guy who would be way more effective as a mere change-of-pace guy.

Kedon Slovis

In contrast to Oregon’s, USC’s quarterback is coming off of back-to-back highlight-filled performances. He threw five touchdowns in each of his last two games. Slovis, who is currently completing just over 70 percent of his passes, has always been known for being an accurate quarterback, especially on the deep ball.

It helps him to have a stacked wide receiver crew that includes Amon-Ra St. Brown. With his burst, St. Brown easily creates separation and can take the top off of a defense. But he leads the team in receptions because he also possesses sufficient strength in addition to the ability to quickly gain separation. He has the tools to line up effectively on the inside.

9 to 8 for 7 and the lead! @KedonSlovis to @Amonra_stbrown with ice in their veins.#FightOn pic.twitter.com/K0d9XlRVg8

— USC Football (@USC_FB) December 13, 2020

Drake London is the team’s leading wide receiver in terms of yardage. At 6-5 and 210 pounds, he is well-sized, has great body control, and shows reliable hands. The stacked quality of USC’s pass-catching corps creates a strong contrast to an Oregon secondary that is reeling for talent. The opt-outs of cornerback Thomas Graham plus safety Jevon Holland really hurt the Ducks’ pass defense.

A thing about Oregon’s pass defense is that its pass rush has been anemic. When you combine a lower-quality secondary with a pass rush that ranks 102nd nationally in sack rate, you will give up a lot of points as a defense. Right now, Oregon ranks 72nd nationally in pass defense as measured by opposing passing yards per game. The Ducks rank this poorly despite not having faced any of the Pac-12’s top five passers (as measured by passing yards).

Slovis, who actually is the Pac-12’s leading passer, will give a Duck secondary that is already struggling a uniquely strong challenge. Slovis’ ability to hurt the Oregon pass defense is especially important because USC is a radically pass-heavy team.

The Verdict 

USC passes at a high rate and can do so successfully with a superbly accurate and on-fire quarterback, a stacked pass-catching crew, and while going against a weak and untested secondary that is unsupported by even a decent pass rush. Oregon, with its own critical problems at quarterback and running back, will not keep pace.

College Football Oddsmakers are showing too much respect for the Ducks. For the above reasons, with your college football picks, expect USC to cover the spread.

Best Bet: Trojans -3 at -125 with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Trojans -3(-125)

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