NL West Offseason Odds, Needs, Targets, Outlooks & Values

The Dodgers were the heavy favorites to win the 2020 NL West, and they not only did that, but won the whole darn things as World Series champs for the first time since 1988.

That said, they certainly have company in the west as the San Diego Padres transitioned into perhaps the most electric and entertaining teams in the league last season. Their combination of power, speed and youthful exuberance made the Friars must-see TV in 2020. They parlayed such talents into a second-place finish not only in the NL West, but the entire senior circuit while their 37-23 record was the third-best in all of baseball.

Even the San Francisco Giants were better than many had expected while the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks slipped into bottom-feeder territory with the Rockies -78 run differential coming dangerously close to the -79 mark posted by the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates for a share of the worst mark in the NL.

What’s in store for the division in 2021? Let’s dive into the NL West and check out some 2021 season odds, offseason needs, potential free agents targets, 2021 season outlook and value ratings for all five clubs!

*Odds courtesy of BetOnline

Los Angeles Dodgers

• Last Season: 43-17 (1st in NL West)
• Playoffs: Won World Series vs. Rays (4-2)
• 2021 World Series Odds: +400
• 2021 National League Odds: +200

Offseason Needs

Bullpen Help

What does a loaded offense with high-end starting pitching need most so their talents don’t go to waste? A lockdown bullpen so the leads that they create aren’t being squandered throughout what we hope will be a full, 162-game season.

The Dodgers and Rays’ bullpens went toe-to-toe in the World Series and we all know how valuable bullpens are come October. The Dodgers are as good of a lock as anyone to get back to the dance, so building a formidable bullpen should be priority No.1 for a team with few holes elsewhere.

Let’s also keep in mind who they have lost – so far – on the open market. Back-end right-handers Blake Treinen and Pedro Baez are free agents, as is southpaw Jake McGee and swingman Alex Wood. McGee led the 2020 Dodgers with a 0.7 fWAR based on a 1.67 FIP while the other three relievers posted ERAs between 3.18 and 3.86.

Sure, the Dodgers posted the league’s best bullpen ERA at 2.74 a season ago, but with what they’ve lost to this point to free agency, it appears there is some significant work to do in this department.

Third Base

Long-time Dodger and postseason hero Justin Turner is the biggest free agent at the third base position, and he’ll have a market as a result despite being 36 years of age when the 2021 season is scheduled to start and having his power decline at the plate.

Currently, the Dodgers have Edwin Rios projected to see the bulk of third-base reps with super utility man Chris Taylor also likely to see time at the hot corner.

Rios has made good on his power potential as he slugged eight homers in just 32 big-league games last season and now as 12 to his credit across 60 MLB contests. He owns a career .374 ISO, .396 wOBA and 152 wRC+ as a result. He’s also been worth a healthy 1.0 fWAR in that time.

The problem is that Rios graded quite poor with the glove in his 140 innings at third in 2020 and is very much a bat-first player, at least at this point. Turner didn’t grade well defensively at third in 2020, either, but it’s doubtful the Dodgers just hand Rios the job at this point.

Rather, Rios would be a better fit taking most of the DH reps on days that Will Smith catches while providing backup duties at the corner infield spots in order to get his bat in the lineup as much as possible.

Free Agent Targets

Bullpen Help

I wouldn’t rule out a reunion with any of the four bullpen arms the Dodgers have seen hit free agency this offseason. That said, all will be in demand – albeit at subdued costs – given the 2020 seasons they enjoyed.

The need increases with Kenley Jansen’s up-and-down ways at the back end of the Dodgers bullpen while Dave Roberts was non-committal to Jansen as his closer in the postseason.

Jansen, Brusdar Graterol, Victor Gonzalez, Joe Kelly, Adam Kolarek and Dylan Floro remains from last year’s group, but the team needs high-leverage arms, and they should aim high.

That means Liam Hendriks should absolutely be in consideration as the best reliever in baseball over the last two seasons, bar-none. Brad Hand should be considered as well, but like the other 28 teams in baseball, the Dodgers passed on his $10M option on waivers. Of course, they could bring him in at a lesser cost while Trevor Rosenthal, Shane Greene, Kirby Yates, Tyler Clippard, Mark Melancon, Trevor May, Oliver Perez, Sean Dootlittle, Greg Holland and Brandon Kintzler should all be names that the Dodgers check into as most have closing experience and all have high-leverage experience.

I would expect the Dodgers to grab at one least one of the top-tier arms (Hendriks, Hand, Rosenthal) while grabbing one or two of the next tier. The Dodgers have some excellent bridge-type bullpen arms available, but with the exception of Jansen and Graterol, and maybe Kelly, not many have high-leverage experience, something the Dodgers should value on the open market.

Third Base

The options here are Turner, and then likely the trade market. I doubt any of Eric Sogard, Todd Frazier, Marwin Gonzalez or Brock Holt move the needle for the Dodgers.

After all, there will be a pair of third-base names swirling in trade rumors this winter as Kris Bryant – a free agent after the 2021 season – and Nolan Arenado will be mainstays in the offseason headlines. After dishing out $365M over 12 years to Mookie Betts, are the Dodgers, in this financial backdrop, really going to trade for Bryant and sign him to a big-money extension? They certainly aren’t going to pony up a bevy of future assets for one year of his services. Also, trading for Arenado would require the team to take on all, or most, of the six years and $199M remaining on his contract. Keep in mind the team likely wants to retain 2020 World Series MVP Corey Seager before he hits free agency after next season as well.

Arenado has an opt-out in his clause after next season, but it’s highly doubtful he exercises that given the financial state of Major League Baseball.

So, while it’s difficult to nail down just how the Dodgers plan to address their third-base need, it will be interesting to see how the dominos fall.

Outlook

Of course, the Dodgers are World Series favorites heading into 2021, and for good reason. The offense remains elite and the team’s rotation appears to be in great hands with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and David Price – who opted out of the 2020 season – leading the charge. The rotation just isn’t a pressing need.

The team lost second baseman/outfielder Enrique Hernandez to free agency, but I would expect the Dodgers to allow top prospect Gavin Lux the opportunity to start at second while Chris Taylor is an option there if Lux fails to hit, as he did in 69 plate appearances in 2020.

It’s possible they address second base with a one-year deal for one of Cesar Hernandez, Kolten Wong or Jonathan Schoop, but the true need in the infield is at third and the bullpen is priority No.1

The Dodgers are heavy favorites in both the World Series and National League Pennant departments, and they are far from a lock, but that doesn’t mean their 2021 futures don’t hold value.

Futures Value Rating: 7/10

San Diego Padres

• Last Season: 37-23 (2nd in NL West)
• Playoffs: Lost NLDS vs. Dodgers (3-0)
• 2021 World Series Odds: +800
• 2021 National League Odds: +475

Offseason Needs

Bullpen Help

It’s not the area where I think they’ll make the biggest splash, but the bullpen should also be priority No.1 for this Padres team that certainly carries World Series aspirations.

After a lights-out 2019 season, the Padres got just 4.1 innings out of Kirby Yates due to injury last season, and he’s not a free agent. Rosenthal, who the team acquired from the Royals prior to the trade deadline, is also a free agent. That’s the teams 2019 and 2020 closers now on the open market and both will have plenty of suitors.

Additionally, left-hander Matt Strahm will pitch the 2021 season coming off knee surgery to repair a torn patellar tendon in his right knee.

The team has Drew Pomeranz as their bullpen leader at the moment, but the truth is the Padres’ bullpen tied for 12th wth a 4.38 ERA last season, although their peripherals were superior. Nonetheless, I would expect the Padres to be on the hunt for a closer-type arm at the back end of the bullpen with several middle-relief options capable of getting the ball to Pomeranz and a free-agent addition in the late innings.

Right Fielder

This isn’t where I expect the biggest splash, either, but I see a need here as well.

Another free agent from the 2020 Padres is Jurickson Profar who turned in a fine season between second base and left field. Profar logged 282.1 innings for the Padres in left last season and FanGraphs was a fan of his defensive, crediting him with 4 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a 12.2 UZR/150.

The team could theoretically go with an outfield of Tommy Pham in left, Trent Grisham in center and Wil Myers in right, but Myers’ glove is average at best and given the hole the team has at the designated hitter spot, his skill set leans towards swallowing up those DH reps as opposed to an everyday outfielder.

The oft-injured Tommy Pham struggled at the plate and in the field in his first season in San Diego last season, so adding another full-time outfielder to the mix makes sense regardless of Profar’s free-agent status.

Starting Pitching

No, technically this is not a glaring need, and the team will likely be fine without adding a starter. However, I’m going on a limb and predicting the Padres go out and nab Trevor Bauer, the top free-agent starter on the market.

Currently, the team has a quality top three of Mike Clevinger, Dinelson Lamet and Chris Paddack, whatever order you want to place them in. The injuries to Clevinger and Lamet were devastating to their chances against the rival Dodgers in the NLDS, but both are Cy Young-worthy at their best and Lamet put forth such a performance in 2020.

No sweat for Dinelson Lamet strikeout prop bettors tonight

He doubled the total (7) with a career-high 14 punchouts

pic.twitter.com/9Ewtwei12r

— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) September 19, 2019

They also have the reliable Zach Davies at No.4, and FanGraphs has Davies projected to lead the rotation in innings next season as he manages to stay healthy. He almost always out-pitches his suspect peripherals, but nonetheless had a wonderful season in his first year with the Padres last season.

Add in top prospect Mackenzie Gore and the Padres’ rotation is legit.

So, it might be a stretch to claim the rotation as a need for a team that ranked third with a 3.46 starters ERA last season, but my sneaking suspicion forced me into it.

Free Agent Targets

Bullpen Help

As noted, the Padres have a bevy of capable middle-relief type arms in the bullpen as it is. That said, I’d like to see them fill that need at the back end. Clearly, without Yates in 2020, general manager AJ Preller saw that need as well or he wouldn’t have gone out and traded for Rosenthal.

I’d be shocked if the team didn’t make a similar acquisition in free agency, whether it be bringing back Rosenthal or Yates. The team could also re-unite with another former closer in Hand who the team traded to the Cleveland Indians prior to the 2019 deadline.

Those three will be considered, as will former Dodger Treinen who saw plenty of high-leverage action in the 2020 postseason. The team could also take a flier on the likes of Roberto Osuna and Ken Giles who are coming off injuries, but I would expect them to aim for more of a “sure thing” and nab one of the top arms on the market, including a shot at Hendriks to be sure.

Right Fielder

The right field market is largely slim pickens, so don’t rule out a trade as the Padres made two head-line grabbing deals last season. One netted them Pham and Cronenworth from the Rays and the other Davies and Grisham from the Brewers in a deal that is very one-sided to this point.

If the free-agent route is what materializes, a name like Adam Eaton makes sense. The veteran’s .226 average, .287 wOBA, 75 wRC+ and -0.5 fWAR last season with the Nationals didn’t help his cause entering the open market. His defense tailed off as per FanGraphs’ metrics while Statcast also wasn’t a fan, placing him in the league’s 20th percentile in outs above average (OAA) despite ranking him the 86th percentile in outfielder jump.

That said, Eaton was an above-average hitter in each of his previous six seasons, sometimes well above average, posting wRC+ figures between 107 and 124 in that time. He’s still just 31 years of age with a solid power/speed combination that the Padres value.

After Eaton, the likes of Cameron Maybin and Josh Reddick are the next-best options unless they consider Yasiel Puig, although I doubt that will be the case. Eaton seems like a nice fit, or the team could go the trade route once again.

Starting Pitching

This is Bauer or nothing in my opinion. The team might have planned to look into Marcus Stroman, but that notion is out the window with the news that Stroman has accepted the Mets’ $18.9M qualifying offer.

Outlook

Clearly, the Padres have arrived and I don’t see them going anywhere.

They ranked third with a .209 ISO and first with 55 stolen bases last season, so I would expect to see them continue with the power/speed aspect with someone like Eaton moving forward.

Without Bauer, the starting rotation still looks excellent if Clevinger can shake off his late-season injury woes while Paddack will certainly look to rebound from some disastrous postseason results.

The bullpen needs a closer or at least a high-leverage arm to share lockdown duties with Pomeranz, but otherwise this Padres team looks pretty set to give the Dodgers another run for their money in 2021 and I view their odds as valuable as I do the reigning champs.

Futures Value Rating: 7/10

San Francisco Giants

• Last Season: 29-31 (3rd in NL West)
• Playoffs: Did Not Qualify
• 2021 World Series Odds: +8000
• 2021 National League Odds: +5000

Offseason Needs

Starting Pitching

This need somewhat hinges on whether or not Kevin Gausman accepts the Giants’ $18.9M qualifying offer by Wednesday’s 5 p.m. ET deadline. That said, even if he does, which I personally believe he will, the Giants could use an infusion of starting pitching as the current group is without an particularly inspiring options.

Johnny Cueto will front the group, likely followed by some combination of Logan Webb, Tyler Anderson, Andrew Suarez and Shaun Anderson. That’s largely the same group, along with now free agent Jeff Samardzija, that started for the club last season and Giants starters combined for a 21st-ranked 4.99 ERA.

It’s not a group incapable of starting in the big leagues, but most or all of them are more 3/4/5 type starters as Cueto is no longer the ace he once was. Gausman would seize that role should he accept, but an impact starter in the 2/3 mould would go a long way in building this Giants pitching staff back up.

Bullpen Help

After the Giants sported one of the top bullpens in baseball in the 2019 season, the group crumbled underneath the surface in 2020 as they had lost many of their impact bullpen arms by that point.

Last season, the Giants ranked 12th with a 4.24 ERA. That’s all well and good, but they were extremely fortunate to do so as per their 22nd-ranked 4.87 FIP, 27th-ranked 5.07 xFIP and a -0.6 fWAR that tied for 25th. Sure, the results, or ERA, is what matters most, but the bottom line is they were extremely fortunate to get away with that number and if they don’t address the area they are sure to regress with authority.

Trevor Cahill, Drew Smyly and Tony Watson are names that will also need to be replaced and names such as Tyler Rogers, Sam Coonrod, Jarlin Garcia, Reyes Moronta and Sam Selman will attempt to do so. However, that’s not going to be enough, at least not if the Giants plan to increase their surprisingly competitive nature from the 2020 season.

Free Agent Targets

Starting Pitching

The Giants haven’t been afraid to dish out free agent dollars, however given the financial landscape at hand, I wonder if president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and his analytical mindset will instead put his skills to work in finding value on the open market rather than aiming at the top.

I’m not Zaidi, so I can’t possibly know who is targeting on the open market. However, low-cost, high-upside, value names on the market would seemingly consist of Garrett Richards, Jose Quintana, Chris Archer, Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood and Collin McHugh, among others.

No, none of those names are the No.2 starter the team appears in need of, but that’s not to say none of them could pitch like a No.2 on a one-year, cost-efficient deal. After all, all of those names have has success in the past and Richards, Quintana and Archer were once ace-caliber pitchers. There’s plenty of redemption stories every year, and I would expect the Giants to be on that type of market this winter.

Bullpen Help

Like with the rotation needs, it’s difficult to nail down precise names the Giants should covet in the reliever market.

There’s probably too many teams in on the likes of Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand and Trevor Rosenthal at the top, but I would suggest Zaidi and GM Scott Harris will look to piece together the back end of their bullpen by mixing and matching arms with high-leverage experience, and the names that fit that description are bountiful, as noted in previous sections.

The lure of pitching in a pitcher-friendly venue like Oracle Park in San Fran on a one-year deal in an attempt to hit the free-agent market running next winter should give the Giants plenty of options.

Don’t be surprised if former Dodger Pedro Baez is interested coming off a nice, World Series-winning season while Greene, May, Anthony Bass, Perez, Ian Kennedy, Tommy Hunter, Greg Holland or Jeremy Jeffress are also looking for high-leverage work. Dootlittle, Osuna, Giles, Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw and Nate Jones are reclamation projects either from injury or poor performance in 2020.

The Giants will cast a wide net in their search for bullpen help – as will many teams – but don’t let last year’s bullpen ERA fool you, the team needs upgrades.

Outlook

One of the most surprising stats from the 2020 season: The Giants offense ranked sixth with a .337 wOBA last season. The two teams ahead of them with identical .341 marks? The Yankees and Padres, noted elite offensive teams.

Hence the lack of needs on the offensive side of the ball.

The Giants lineup largely returns in 2021, and they should get catcher/first baseman Buster Posey back after he opted out of the 2020 season. All four players the team saw hit free agency were pitchers, and only three if Gausman returns.

Posey and youngster Joey Bart will catch, Brandon Belt is at first, Donovan Solano/Wilmer Flores at second and veterans Brandon Crawford (shortstop) and Evan Longoria (third base) hold down the left side of the infield. As a side note, Crawford is a free agent after the season at precisely the same time an elite group of shortstops hit the open market. Just a thought.

The right fielder is 2020 breakout star Mike Yastrzemski, the center fielder is 26-year-old Mauricio Dubon who was an elite defender who hit better than expected while Alex Dickson handles left field. The DH duties will be split between the likes of Solano, Flores and Austin Slater, for the most part.

Mike Yastrzemski with a walk-off home run for the win, 7-6. #sfgiants #padres pic.twitter.com/yGNgVVpWCk

— Justin Groc (@jgroc) July 30, 2020

Why would you tinker with that group? I’m with you when we thought they’d struggle at the plate in 2020, and perhaps some regression could be had, but I don’t see the Giants front office rushing out for any major upgrades at any of those positions

Rather, roll the dice on them raking again and bolster that pitching staff. If they do, the Giants’ futures will see a major boost after missing out on the expanded 2020 postseason on a tiebreaker with the Brewers.

Until we start to see some of those additions, I’m hesitant to lay down on those long-shot odds.

Futures Odds Value: 5/10

Colorado Rockies

• Last Season: 26-34 (4th in NL West)
• Playoffs: Did Not Qualify
• 2021 World Series Odds: +10000
• 2021 National League Odds: +5000

Offseason Needs

Bullpen Help

It wasn’t all that long ago that the Rockies looked to beef up their bullpen when they signed Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw to big-money contracts, but those deals ended up in the gutter from the get-go and the Rockies are coming off a season in which they ranked 29th with a 6.77 bullpen ERA.

As I always do with the Rockies given the extreme hitter-friendly nature of their home ball park of Coors Field, I check the splits, and there was nothing doing there, either.

In other words, that bullpen stunk again in 2020 and isn’t on track to get a whole lot better without some major additions to that group this offseason. At the very least, innings need to be eaten as both Davis and Shaw are free agents after the former didn’t hit his vesting option for 2021 while Shaw was cut loose by the Rockies prior to the 2020 season before struggling the Mariners.

On the bright side, Daniel Bard’s against-all-odds comeback has him set up as the team’s top reliever for 2020 and Mychal Given has largely been a quality, reliable arm in his big-league tenure, but there’s nothing else about this bullpen you can look forward to for next season.

First Base

The Rockies declined the option on veteran Daniel Murphy’s contract for the 2021 season, leaving the first base position as an area of need for the club.

Twenty-seven-year-old Josh Fuentes hit well in the minors and actually hit .306 with a decent .759 OPS in 30 big-league games last year, but his putrid 1.9% walk rate left him with an 86 wRC+ that is well below league average. His batting average also largely benefited from a .406 BABIP despite a poor 28.2% hard hit rate. The Coors field effect was also very much in play as he hit .383 with an .878 OPS at home but just .235 with a .650 OPS on the road.

Ian Desmond should return after opting out of the 2020 season, giving the Rockies a first-base option, but the righty-swinging Desmond fares far better versus left-handed pitching, hasn’t played first since the 2018 season and graded out as an extremely poor defender in the outfield in 2019, leaving him as a strong DH option.

Free Agent Targets

Bullpen Help

Your guess is as good as mine. Honestly, when your bullpen as been as bad as the Rockies’ has in recent years, you’re looking for upgrades up and down the free agent list. The Rockies aren’t likely to spend as they likely view themselves well behind the Dodgers and Padres in the NL West – and rightfully so – but you can bet that they’ll be on the hunt for bullpen help in a big way.

The problem is attracting any pitcher to Coors Field. If you were a pitcher looking to establish value over the 2021 season in the hopes of landing a guaranteed contract, perhaps even a multi-year deal, next winter, why would you sign in by far the league’s top hitters park?

The Rockies would have a role for high-end arms to be sure, but from a financial standpoint it just doesn’t make sense for a lot of pitchers with their eye on next winter. That said, a big-league job is a big-league job and they’ll find some takers to be sure, just not likely at or near the top of the pack.

Cheap, short-term options make sense, perhaps even for reclamation projects – due to injury or poor performance – such as Brad Peacock, Chris Devenski, Yusmeiro Petit, Brandon Workman, Heath Hembree, Keone Kela, Steve Cishek, Tony Watson, Nate Jones or Jared Hughes.

Those are just some of the names that could be in play, but there is no specific answer to the Rockies’ free agent needs in the relief pitching department.

First Base

This is where we could really nail down some specifics and a much more defined market.

The Rockies cut bait with a left-handed hitting first baseman in Murphy, and it appears there’s another one staring them right in the face in the form of Mitch Moreland.

Moreland’s bat is more than good enough to take advantage of Coors Field, but only against right-handers as he posted a monster .315 ISO, .938 OPS, .387 wOBA and 145 wRC+. Even at 35 years of age, I struggle to understand why he bounces around so much with that type of production versus right-handed pitching.

Such an addition would allow a platoon between Moreland and Desmond at first. Problem solved.

Additionally, the Rockies could look into switch-hitting first baseman Carlos Santana who solves the need on an everyday basis but Eric Thames and C.J. Cron are a pair of power bats that could work while Thames would also offer a platoon situation with Desmond.

It seems the Rockies have some options to fill their void at first base.

Outlook

The Rockies finished the 2020 season ranked 20th with a 4.83 ERA. Add in the fact that German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and Jon Gray will all return, I don’t see the Rockies going out and making a splash on the starting pitching market, and on Tuesday they added former Giant Dereck Rodriguez to add depth to the rotation and bullpen.

Ryan Castellani will be given a spot after he showed flashes of potential last season, so don’t expect the team to do much on the starting pitching front, not with the bullpen in disarray and a first base need as well.

However, there’s no reason to believe this Rockies pitching staff is in a position for a major bounce back after ranking 29th with a 5.59 staff ERA a season ago. Not with much of the same cast, anyway.

The offense has also deteriorated in recent years to the point where they ranked 28th with a 76 wRC+ last season. wRC+ is a metric that accounts for park factors, and presents a number relative to league average, with 100 being average, or equal. In other words, with park factors accounted for, the Rockies’ offense was about 24% below league average last season, in large part due to their 27th-ranked .291 wOBA on the road.

There’s just not nearly enough reasons to support Rockies futures heading towards the 2021 season.

Futures Value Rating: 2/10

Arizona Diamondbacks

• Last Season: 25-25 (5th in NL West)
• Playoffs: Did Not Qualify
• 2021 World Series Odds: +8000
• 2021 National League Odds: +4000

Offseason Needs

Bullpen Help

The Rockies have lost a bunch of relief pitchers of the last couple of seasons and traded away their final piece from the glory days of a few years back as Archie Bradley was sent to the Reds at the trade deadline last season.

Without Bradley at the back end of the bullpen the group looks… anonymous is probably the nicest way to put it.

Stefan Chrichton, Junior Guerra and Kevin Ginkel are the likeliest of candidates to do the heavy lifting for the D-backs bullpen next season. After that, it’s largely anybody’s guess as to who wins bullpen battles if the team doesn’t bring in some additional arms to create some additional battles from a group that appears in need of competition.

Starting Pitching

Needless to say, the first year of Madison Bumgarner’s five-year deal with the D-backs didn’t go as planned. The Giants legend was shelled for an ugly 6.48 ERA/7.18 FIP in his first tour of duty in the desert. The team appears to have a stud at the top in Zac Gallen, and Luke Weaver continues his development in that rotation as well.

There it is!

Zac Gallen gets Trevor Story looking for his career-high 10th strikeout! pic.twitter.com/sTEOqovGRI

— FOX Sports Arizona (@FOXSPORTSAZ) September 26, 2020

That said, there isn’t much else to hang your hat on, and a significant bounce back from Bumgarner and the significant mileage on that arm is far from guaranteed. The team has Caleb Smith, Merrill Kelly and Corbin Young as additional starting pitching options, but the club’s depth on the whole is certainly lacking.

Whether the team spends any meaningful money to make it happen is a question worth asking after dishing out $85M to Bumgarner last winter, but it would be a risky proposition and a sign of simply conceding the division to the higher ups.

Free Agent Targets

Bullpen Help

Like with many teams, the D-backs are likely to have a wide-ranging search for their bullpen help. The true test of whether the D-backs plan to compete or not will come by way of adding another impact starter or not. That task seems far more achievable than re-building an entire bullpen as there would be several impact arms required to make this group formidable.

If we see the D-backs add a starter on a notable contract, we can expect the bullpen signings to follow. They’re not going to shop at the top of the list, but looking into names that are largely mentioned above would make sense. That would be names such as Shane Greene, Trevor May, Mark Melancon, Pedro Baez, Alex Colome, Tyler Clippard, Kirby Yates, Anthony Bass, Jeremy Jeffress, Sean Dootlittle, Darren O’Day and Keone Kela.

Those are just some of the names. Of course, there’s many more, and until the signing begin to roll in and the market takes some sort of shape we’re simply left guessing as to what type of relief pitching aid the D-backs will be in for this winter.

Starting Pitching

I see the bullpen as a more glaring need, however if the D-backs are to contend at all it begins with adding at least a No.3 starter to give this rotation additional quality and quantity.

Names that could fit that bill would be Rick Porcello, Jose Quintana, Mike Minor, Brett Anderson and Matt Shoemaker. If the team wants quality innings from a starter while looking for a bounce back from Bumgarner, it would seemingly give the rotation four solid starters and lengthy competition for the fifth job.

If they are looking at a sign-and-flip angle, that market includes reclamation projects such as Michael Wacha, Chris Archer, Garrett Richards, Corey Kluber, Felix Hernandez and Gio Gonzalez. There’s always more, but those names certainly come to mind.

I’m interested to see what direction the team goes with its needs, but as embark on what will unfortunately seem like a marathon offseason, we may not know for quite some time.

Outlook

The D-backs offense is largely set. They return regulars at catcher, first base, second base, shortstop, third base, left field and right field. The lone spot that is somewhat vacant is center field after the club dealt Starling Marte to the Marlins at the trade deadline.

That said, prospect Daulton Varsho is going to get every opportunity to seize that job. Varsho put excellent glove work on display in center last season and has the speed to play the position as he ranked in the league’s 86h percentile in terms of top sprint speed.

The 24-year-old hit just .188 in 37 games, but he did pop three homers and stole three bases. He absolutely raked at Double-A in 2019 with a power/speed combination that saw hit homer 18 times and steal 21 bases. Despite his low average, he drew walks at a quality 10.4% rate and was still a positive fWAR player thanks to his speed and defense. He’ll more than likely open the season as the everyday center fielder, at least against righties with fellow burner Tim Locastro to spell him against southpaws. Underrated platoon in center here.

The D-backs tied for 24th with a .306 wOBA last season, but with the likes of Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Eduardo Escobar, David Peralta and Kole Calhoun in the lineup, I think there’s a bounce back to be had.

Which makes it so important for the team to acquire those pitching upgrades. Remember, this team went 85-77 with a +70 run differential in 2019. Zack Greinke led the pitching staff then, but much of that same offense remains, if not improved.

If they add impact arms to the pitching staff, you can call me crazy, but I’d look into investing in some D-backs futures, but certainly not until I see some meaningful additions to that pitching staff.

As it stands right now, the futures don’t hold value in a difficult NL West, but stay tuned throughout the offseason.

Futures Value Rating: 3/10

READ: NL Central Offseason Odds, Needs, Targets, Outlooks & Values