Getty Images. Pictured: Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert
Happy Week 10!
We have a full Sunday of football, with five games in the 1 p.m. ET window followed by six in the 4 p.m. ET window. To help you prepare, our staff has previewed every game, complete with odds and a pick for each.
Let’s jump right in.
NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
Texans at Browns Odds & Pick
Raheem Palmer: The Browns have made a habit of beating inferior competition. Their five victories have come against teams that have a combined record of only 11-21-1 with a point differential of -93: The Bengals (twice), Washington, Cowboys and Colts. And of those five, only the Colts have a winning record (5-3) and positive point differential (+48).
With a 2-6 record, a point differential of -46 and their only two wins coming against the Jaguars, the Texans are right at home on this list of bad teams that the Browns have used as a springboard for what could turn out to be their first playoff appearance in 18 years.
Overall, this is the perfect get-right spot after a disappointing, weather-aided loss to the Raiders and a bye that allowed the Browns’ stars to get healthy. Unlike in their loss to the Raiders, the Browns will have the services of Chubb and Teller, so we should expect a better offensive output on Sunday.
The Browns are a playoff team, and proving that starts with winning games like this one. I’m laying the points up to -4.
PICK: Browns -4 [Bet now at BetMGM]
Eagles at Giants Odds & Pick
Brandon Anderson: The Eagles have won eight games in a row against the Giants, but six of those wins came by one score — and one was that 22-21 final last month, which may not have been as close as it looked. The Eagles had the ball in the red zone an incredible eight times, and two of the Giants’ three touchdowns came because of broken plays, including that 80-yard Daniel Jones run when he got tackled by the turf monster.
The one thing these teams have in common (outside of playing in the NFL’s junior division) is that they both struggle to score in a huge way.
Philadelphia has yet to score 30 points this season and averages 23.3 points per game. New York, meanwhile, has topped 23 points only once all season. When the scoring is so hard to come by, a four-point spread is higher than it seems.
In games these two teams have played against NFC East opponents, the under this year is 6-1 — these are ugly, awful, close, low-scoring games.
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The Eagles are the better and healthier team and should find a way to win, but they’ve been leaving things close late. I’m certainly not taking Philly in any survivor leagues, and I prefer New York to cover with the line above the field goal.
The under feels like the better play — it’s a bet on two decent defenses, a bet against bad offenses, and a bet on bad NFC East football.
This game should be close and ugly late, and you just know it’s going to come down to Carson Wentz or Jones needing to make a big play late. Do you really want your money riding on that outcome?
Take the under and root for awful. After all, “awful” has been the best NFC East bet all season.
PICK: Under 44.5 [Bet now at BetMGM]
Washington at Lions Odds & Pick
Mike Randle: While a small sample size, the Lions have not fared well under Matt Patricia as home favorites — they’re 1-4 in this spot, per our Bet Labs data.
There have been concerns about Washington’s offense all season, and Smith was understandably rusty last week, throwing three interceptions. But the Washington defense is among the NFL’s elite, and the injuries to the Lions playmakers will limit Stafford’s ability to create scoring opportunities.
I’m backing Washington +4 and would do so down to 3.5.
Given Patricia’s shaky home record and a substandard Lions run defense, this is also a nice moneyline opportunity as well.
PICK: Washington +4 [Bet now at DraftKings]
Jaguars at Packers Odds & Pick
Mike Randle: Betting on Rodgers as a home favorite has been a profitable trend over his career — he’s 51-30-3 in this spot, per our Bet Labs data.
With Rodgers’ near-full complement of weapons, it’s hard to envision Jacksonville’s league-worst defense putting up any resistance.
Luton showed off his big arm against Houston and will certainly makes plays against an Alexander-less secondary. The Packers’ league-worst run defense should also yield production to the versatile Robinson.
Still, I’m laying the 13.5 points with Rodgers and taking the over 49. The wind has bettors scared, keeping this line in a reasonable range.
This matchup is similar to Green Bay’s 28-22 home loss to Minnesota just two weeks ago — despite heavy winds, both teams found ways to score. Rodgers’ arm is strong, and Jacksonville will lean on Robinson as the Vikings did with Dalvin Cook.
I expect a high-scoring game with a two-touchdown win by Green Bay. I would take this spread up to Green Bay -14 and the total up to 49.5 points.
PICKS: Packers -14; Over 47.5 [Bet now at BetMGM]
Buccaneers at Panthers Odds & Pick
Phillip Kall: One of the scariest things in sports is Brady after a loss. Make that a nationally televised, humiliating, blowout loss, and things are even worse.
He’ll have the Buccaneers’ offense ready to prove that last week was a fluke and they’re more like the team that destroyed the Packers and Raiders than the team that showed up last Sunday night.
An extra week of practice for Brown should help the timing and chemistry with Brady, so the former All-Pro could have a larger impact than three catches for 31 yards.
The Panthers’ defense will need to get to Brady if they hope to slow him down, and with one of the worst defensive fronts in terms of pressuring the quarterback, that is easier said than done.
This could come down to the ability of the Panthers offense to keep pace with the Bucs, but the Panthers have been forced to settle for field goals too often to think their offense will be able to score at the necessary rate.
PICK: Buccaneers -6 [Bet now at BetMGM]
Bills at Cardinals Odds & Pick
Reed Wallach: We know that both these teams can score — Buffalo may be top three in explosive pass rate, yet Arizona counters with a top-three explosive rush rate, and neither has the defense at the moment to contain the opposition.
I do lean with the Cardinals to get a home victory and to sell high on Allen and the Bills offense after a career performance last Sunday. However, the line has drifted to -2.5, which I would not play. I would wait for this to die back down to -2 or better on Sunday.
Another way to play Arizona, and what I have locked in, is the team total over at 28.5, which is widely available as of writing. Simply put, Murray and the Cards offense get into the end zone — they are scoring a touchdown on more than 33% of drives this season, according to Football Outsiders. And with the Bills down Milano at linebacker, I see Murray having another field day.
The full game over is a fine play for me. I see this one coming down to which team has the ball last, but I’m playing the Cardinals team over as a way to side with Arizona. I think the Cards are being undervalued at home based on the factors I laid out above.
PICK: Cardinals Over 28.5 (to 29.5) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Broncos at Raiders Odds & Pick
Reed Wallach: While the Raiders defense does scare me, I can’t back the Broncos given their inability to control the game in the first half and find themselves behind way too often. On the flip side, Lock’s garbage time play does also make me wary to lay the points with Las Vegas.
I used the Raiders in a moneyline parlay with the Ravens to get this to -110, which I think is the safest way to play this one with Vegas’ shaky defense.
Denver’s reinforcements on the defensive side could make this game slow and physical early on. Even though both teams have been part of high-scoring affairs recently, the total is set at just 50.5, right around the league average for the season.
The first-half under is a solid play here. On top of that, the Raiders’ slower-developing drives could lead to a low-scoring first half before second-half fireworks.
PICK: 1H Under 25 (to 24) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Chargers at Dolphins Odds & Pick
Phillip Kall: Justin Herbert has played well despite frequently being under pressure. While this is not the optimal situation for a young quarterback, it does prepare him for a matchup such as this one against the Dolphins.
I lean towards taking the Chargers at +1.5, but would prefer to pair this game with another and tease it — teasing the Chargers from +1.5 to +7.5 and Buccaneers down from -6 to a pick ’em would be my suggestion.
PICK: Tease Chargers +1.5 to +7.5 [Bet now at PointsBet]
Seahawks at Rams Odds & Pick
Raheem Palmer: Is there any reason to go away from the tried and true method for success in Seahawks games this season?
The 2020 Seahawks are very reminiscent of the Jameis Winston-led Buccaneers that finished a league-leading 12-4 to the over in 2019. To put it short, the game script of these Seahawks games lends itself to high-scoring outputs. If Seattle gets ahead, its secondary has no hopes of slowing down the opposing team. If the Seahawks get behind, the opposing team is at the mercy of Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
The Bills were up, 21-3, at halftime against the Rams and the game finished 35-32 with both teams having realistic chances of winning and covering the spread. I could see this game resembling that matchup.
Until Norton is relieved of his duties or we see evidence of Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer changing their offensive philosophy from #LettingRussCook back to running to control the clock, I see no reason to approach Seahawks games differently.
I like the over 54.5 and would play it up to 55 — a key number in NFL totals.
PICK: Over 54.5 [Bet now at BetMGM]
Bengals at Steelers Odds & Pick
Brandon Anderson: Ben Roethlisberger grew up in Ohio and played his college ball there. He’s also dominated NFL teams from the state, going 47-9-1 lifetime against Cincinnati and Cleveland straight up, including 23-7 against the Bengals.
The Steelers have won 10 in a row against the Bengals, but true to its habit of playing down to the opponent, seven of those wins are by one score. The games tend to be close and ugly, without ever really feeling like Pittsburgh is in jeopardy of losing the game.
The teams have also combined for an average of just 39.1 points in those 10 most recent games.
This game opened at Pittsburgh giving 9.5 points, which had me leaning toward Cincinnati. Unfortunately, everyone else agreed. The line dropped quickly and currently sits at -7. Needless to say, that killed off much of the Bengals’ value on the board.
I still prefer Cincinnati when it comes to a side, but if you want to play the Bengals, you should shop around with our odds page and look to get off that key number at another book. When the line is at 7, every half point in either direction matters.
The best play on this game looks like a Pittsburgh teaser. A standard teaser gets us down to the Steelers basically just having to win the game, and we know they find a way to win even if things get ugly.
You might like to play the Steelers with the under on a six-point teaser. having Pittsburgh at -1 and a total under 53.5 points looks like a pretty solid bet. I happen to love the Ravens at -7 on a teaser for many of the same reasons, so I’m looking to play Pittsburgh and Baltimore down to -1 on the line.
Consider the under, and lean toward a Cincinnati cover if the line moves back above seven points before kickoff.
PICK: Tease Steelers down to -1 [Bet now at Parx]
49ers at Saints Odds & Pick
Raheem Palmer: I’m a big proponent of fading teams coming off big victories in primetime — and I take that stance even further when a team has a blowout victory.
Per our Bet Labs data, teams that win by 35 or more points are only 41-55-5 (42.7%) against the spread, losing by a margin of -0.11. That means, if you were to blindly fade teams that win by 35 or more the following week, you would be 55-41-5 (57.3) with a Return Of Investment of +10.2%.
Why is that the case?
The public remembers what they saw last.
The 49ers are coming off a 17-point home loss to the Packers while the Saints are coming off a 35-point destruction of the Buccaneers — and after releasing a lookahead line of Saints -6.5, the spread now sits at -9.5 as of Saturday, a three-point jump.
Now do I believe the Saints deserve a bump up in power ratings after last week’s performance? Absolutely. Do I believe they’re 3.5 to 4 points better than the lookahead number? I don’t.
The Saints are the better football team and are trending upward, but this spread is an overreaction — my projections make this game closer to 7 than 10.
The Saints are just 3-5 against the spread, which tells us that they’ve been overvalued by the betting public for much of this season. Ironically one of their ATS wins came against the Bucs, a team that has been even more overvalued than the Saints. Another was against the Lions in a game in which the spread was bet down by sharp money due to cluster injuries in the Saints secondary.
Although the consensus line is 9.5, there are some stray +10s in the market (shop real-time lines here), and I like the 49ers at +10 or better.
It’s important to note that 10 is a key number in football, and games have landed on 10 roughly 5% of the time since 2015, while games land on nine roughly 1.5% of the time, so the difference between 10 and 9 is the difference between having an edge and not having one.
PICK: 49ers +10 [Bet now at PointsBet]
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