Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers
Which NFL bets should you need to lock in before the weekend?
Our staff details their favorite early Week 11 picks, including three underdogs.
NFL Picks For Week 11
Eagles +3.5 at Browns
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday | More Odds
Raheem Palmer: I’m sure you read the reports before last week’s matchup against Giants: The Philadelphia Eagles are as healthy as they’ve been all season.
Coming off a bye, the Eagles welcomed back running back Miles Sanders, wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey, right tackle Lane Jackson, left guard Isaac Seumalo and left tackle Jason Peters. As a result, they took professional money all week as sharp money pushed the line up from -3 to the closing line of -5.
The results weren’t very favorable, however: They lost 27-17 outright on the road with Carson Wentz completing just 21-of-37 passes for 208 yards. The offense was downright abysmal as they went just 0-for-9 on third down and 1-for-3 on fourth down. Wentz has been dreadful this season with a league-high 12 interceptions, ranking 31st in quarterback rating (71.1) and 28th in ESPN’s Total QBR (47.6).
The good news is that the Eagles now travel to Cleveland to play the Browns, who are actually a step down in class defensively despite having the NFL’s sack leader in Myles Garrett (9.5).
The Browns are just 26th in defensive success rate (49.1%), 19th in expected points added, 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA while playing the second-worst schedule of opposing offenses. Cleveland is also 20th in points allowed at 27.2 points per game despite playing in two consecutive games aided by heavy rain and winds that restricted offensive output. That appears to be the case this week as well, with 17 mph winds and a 50% chance of precipitation forecasted.
In a game that could be decided on the ground, the Browns are just 25th in defensive rushing success rate, so we should expect a solid game from Sanders — with another week under his belt and the offensive line getting healthy, this feels like a good spot for the Eagles offense.
Zach Ertz will also make his return from injury against a Browns defense that’s giving up a 59% success rate to opposing tight ends (24th in the NFL), so look for him and Dallas Goedert to have big games.
Andrew Dieb/Icon Sportswire. Pictured: Miles Sanders, Dallas GoedertEven with the favorable offensive matchup, defense is where the Eagles could win this matchup.
They’re 11th in defensive efficiency, allowing only a 46% success rate on runs (ninth) and a 45% success rate against the pass (10th). The Browns may have Garrett, but the Eagles’ front line of Brandon Graham, Malik Jackson and Fletcher Cox is just as dangerous — Jim Schwartz’s defense is third in sacks and sixth in pressure rate. This unit’s ability to generate pressure without blitzing will be huge against Baker Mayfield, who has struggled against pressure throughout his career.
The Browns want to run the ball with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, however this provides a favorable matchup and game script for an Eagles defense that’s 10th in rushing efficiency — the Eagles allowed 152 yards on 36 carries in last week’s loss, but 64 came on nine rushes from Daniel Jones, who thrived in the read option, which is not something we’ve seen from Mayfield this season.
Overall, this is a good buy-low spot for an Eagles team that came out flat off the bye against a divisional opponent. They’ve been competitive against better teams in the Steelers and Ravens, and if Wentz doesn’t turn the ball over, we could see a bounce back performance. They could even have a chance to win this game outright.
My projections make this game a pick’em and thus there’s some value on the Eagles at +3.5 and on the moneyline at +160. I would also recommend taking the Eagles in 6.5-point teasers along with the Packers — with the weather concerns in Cleveland, this total is likely to come down, making the 10 points more valuable.
Falcons +5 at Saints
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday| More Odds
Mike Randle: This NFC South rivalry runs deep, especially since the Falcons have won three of the past six games at New Orleans. Despite a 3-6 record, they enter this game still very much alive in the playoff picture thanks to their 3-1 record since replacing former head coach Dan Quinn with Raheem Morris.
They also had the benefit of a Week 10 bye to provide more time to recover for wide receiver Calvin Ridley. He suffered a foot injury in their 25-17 win over Carolina on Thursday Night Football before the bye. With more than two weeks to recover, it’s likely that Ridley will return to give Matt Ryan his full arsenal of weapons.
In his last four games against the Saints, Ryan has shined:
New Orleans will likely be without Drew Brees, turning to some combination of Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. Either would represent a serious downgrade from the future Hall of Famer.
The Atlanta run defense has been surprisingly tough for opposing running backs. The Falcons have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game and second-fewest rushing yards to opposing RBs. There are very few areas on the offensive line that teams have been able to run effectively against Atlanta this season.
Surprisingly, the Falcons have also been able to limit Alvin Kamara.
Over their past six meetings, Kamara has fallen far below his normal averages, with 6.9 fewer fantasy points and 13 fewer total yards. He’s also failed to score a touchdown in any of those games.
Without Brees, I project this game closer to a 3-point spread. With Ridley healthy in an indoor environment, I expect Atlanta to find enough scoring to possibly pull off the upset. I’ll take the 5 points with the Falcons, on a line that opened at 4.5 and should come down once Brees is officially ruled out.
I would back this line down to 4.5 points.
Packers +2.5 at Colts
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday | More Odds
BJ Cunningham: Aaron Rodgers is possibly having the best season of his career through the first nine games — his 8.2 yards per attempt average is his best mark since 2014 and his 26 passing touchdowns already matches his total from last season.
Rodgers’ performance has the Packers inside the top-five in both passing success and explosiveness (per Sharp Football Stats). And his connection with Davante Adams is one of the best in the NFL as Adams is getting more than 10 targets per game and averaging 9.15 yards per target, which is top five in the NFL.
The Packers aren’t a one trick pony, either. They’ve been running the ball for 4.4 yards per carry and rank ninth in rushing success. Aaron Jones is finally healthy, too, so the rushing attack should only improve going forward.
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However, the Packers are going to face their toughest test yet because this Colts defense is no joke. They’re top 10 in both rushing and passing success, but are in the bottom half of the NFL in defensive passing explosiveness. That is going to be an issue on Sunday, since this will be the most explosive passing attack they’ve seen this season.
Any one who has watched Philip Rivers this season knows he’s declining fast at age 39 — he’s bottom half in passer rating and yards per attempt. That wouldn’t be a big issue if the Colts had a solid running game behind him, but they don’t: Indianapolis is 28th in rushing success and is carrying the ball for a measly 3.8 yards per carry.
Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been great this season, but the Packers have been able to limit explosive plays, ranking inside the top 10 in both rushing and passing explosiveness allowed.
I have the Packers projected as -1.37 favorites, so there’s some value at +2.5 — but as of writing, 55% of the money is on the Colts (go to real-time public betting data), so I would monitor this line throughout the week to see if it gets to +3.
Buccaneers -3 vs. Rams
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET on Monday | More Odds
Brandon Anderson: As I write this in the immediate aftermath of whatever that disaster of a Monday night game was, it sure does feel good to look ahead one week and see Bucs-Rams on the schedule.
The way things stand right now, Bucs-Rams might very well be an NFC Championship Game preview. Are there two more well-rounded teams in the NFC? If there are, I haven’t seen them.
Green Bay and Seattle can’t play defense. Arizona is too inconsistent. New Orleans had a case right up until Drew Brees turned into Jameis Winston.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Sean McVay, Jared GoffThe Bucs and Rams are both pretty good at everything. In particular, they’re getting the best coaching jobs in the NFC so far this season. Todd Bowles continues to have the Bucs defense at the top of the league, while the offense looked better than ever against Carolina after taking a week off against the Giants and Saints. Meanwhile, Sean McVay is back to his old tricks with new slants and has the Rams offense flying again, and the defense has been built around its two superstars, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey.
The Bucs are a little bit better on both sides of the ball, but more than that, they also have two key advantages in this game.
First, the Rams will play their first game without left tackle Andrew Whitworth, which puts Jared Goff under pressure on the road all night from Bowles’ blitzes. Good luck with that. Second, the Rams offense has actually been better running the football, but the Bucs’ run defense has been historically excellent over the past couple seasons.
So, really, this is on Goff missing his blindside protector having to win on the road in primetime against the greatest quarterback of all time. And when you put it that way…
Any primetime game is getting bet up before kickoff. I’m grabbing the Bucs while they’re still sitting at -3.
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