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College Football Odds: Hawaii vs. Wyoming

Tonight’s final college football kickoff also happens to its closest expected matchup. In fact, it’s the only one of the trio listed inside of two touchdowns, and by quite a bit — Wyoming is just a 1-point favorite at home over Hawaii.

As for the expected scoring output, that’s sitting right at the 60-point mark. And there may be some reason to believe it won’t reach that mark … at least historically speaking.

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College Football Weather Forecast: Hawaii vs. Wyoming

Forty-degree temps and clear skies are expected in Laramie tonight, but they’ll be accompanied by 10-11 mph winds.

Now, if you’ve come across one of these posts before, you may already know that our traditional threshold for notable wind speeds is 13 mph or higher (such games have returned a 57% win rate to the under since 2005).

However, since hotter games have tended to lead to more scoring, pairing colder ones with wind allows us to lower our threshold a bit and maintain that impressive clip.

To be specific, since 2005, games played in no more than 50-degree weather with double-digit wind speeds have gone 325-246-10 (57%) to the under. If conditions do hold up as forecasted, this game would certainly meet the criteria.

The theory behind windy unders makes sense, too. With more wind comes an increased passing difficulty, which not only cuts down the number of big passing plays, but forces teams into more of a running game, keeping the clock on the move.

As for tonight’s total in particular, it opened down at 55.5, and made its way all the way up to 61 by Friday morning. However, it’s changed course over the past few hours, inching back to its current line of 60.

And if oddsmakers and bettors put some more weight into the forecast leading up to tonight’s kick, it’s certainly possible that number could continue to fall.