Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Wednesday, October 14, 2020 – 6:05pm EST NLCS Game 3 – Globe Life Field
Probable Pitchers:
● Dodgers: Julio Urias (3-0 3.27 ERA; Postseason: 1-0 0.00 ERA)
● Braves: Kyle Wright (2-4 5.21 ERA, Postseason: 0-0 0.00 ERA)
The Braves have won the first two games of the NLCS, leaving most of baseball shocked. They have shown they’re the real deal. They’ve got the hitting and more importantly, they’ve got the pitching.
The Braves starting pitching has been tremendous between Max Fried, Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright.
But in the regular season, Kyle Wright wasn’t so great.
He went 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA in eight games, walking 5.68 batters per nine innings and allowing 1.66 home runs per nine innings. Wright has seemed to figure it out since then as he’s now thrown three straight quality starts dating back to the end of the regular season.
Wright’s first postseason start came against the Marlins where he allowed no runs on three hits in six innings. He has started to get more ground balls and higher strikeouts but his streak of solid performances came against the Nationals, Mets, Red Sox and the Marlins.
It’s going to get difficult against a Dodgers offense that has plenty of powerful left-handed bats in the lineup. I say that because Wright allowed a .288 average to lefties with a .402 on base percentage and a .521 slugging percentage. Wright allowed four home runs and five doubles in 73 at bats against lefties while also walking them 14 times. Any left-hander in that Dodgers lineup can hit for extra bases. That’s absolutely something to keep in mind, especially with the Dodgers down 2-0 in the series. The Braves opened up as +147 underdogs across most of the top rated sportsbooks.
Wright will go up against Julio Urias, the left-hander who finished the season 3-0 along with a 3.27 ERA. In the postseason, Urias has thrown eight innings and allowed one run (none earned) on four hits and one walk. In those eight innings, he struck out 11 and walked one. He faced 30 total batters and struck out 11 of them. That’s over 35 percent of batters that Urias struck out in the postseason.
The Braves figure to have mostly righties in their lineup in this one and Urias has struck out 31 right-handed batters in the regular season in 154 at bats. That’s 20 percent of batters. But the Braves strike out over 27 percent of the time against left-handers, giving Urias room to increase that number.
If Urias can get through the first time around the order, he’ll absolutely get through the second time around the order. Urias allows a .159 average the second time around the order and struggles with a .281 average the first time around the order.
Urias has gone deep in many areas before and with knowing that the Dodgers bullpen has been hit hard, the Dodgers will likely rely on Urias as long as they can in this one.
Prediction
I really like how the Dodgers match-up in this one. Their lefties can rip apart Kyle Wright and Urias can strike out plenty of batters on the Braves in this one.
Wright has looked really good but like I mentioned, he hasn’t faced an offense quite like the Dodgers. Their ninth inning explosion will at least give the Dodgers momentum in this one, even if they couldn’t get the comeback win.
Currently, Julio Urias has his strikeout prop sitting at 3.5 (-143) at top rated sportsbook BetOnline. The Braves struggle against lefties and strike out over 27 percent of the time. Urias has struck out over 36 percent in the postseason and will likely pitch five or six innings.
I like that number. That’ll be the play of the day for me.
MLB Pick: Julio Urias Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-143) at BetOnline
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