Last Chance Value Picks For Betting Seahawks vs. Eagles

The Seahawks take on the Eagles tonight and we have some last-minute betting picks for the action. Sportsbooks like Bovada are offering a bevy of prop betting opportunities for tonight’s Monday Night Football match-up between Seattle and Philadelphia.

I feel most confident in my read of Seattle’s pass attack. So Russell Wilson and company will form the focus for my best bets.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Monday, November 30, 2020 – 08:15 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field

Mobile Quarterbacks 

Philadelphia struggles against mobile quarterbacks because they consistently accrue a lot of rushing yards against its defense. When the Eagles faced Baltimore, quarterback Lamar Jackson ran for 108 yards and a touchdown en route to a 30-28 victory.  This was a close game, yet the Eagles could not stop Lamar from running well enough to help Baltimore win.

You might think: well, Lamar is a very good running quarterback. Maybe it’s not saying much that he had a very good rushing performance. But the thing to note is that he had a season-high performance on the ground — in terms of total rushing yards and YPC -- when he faced the Eagles. His next-best rushing effort did not come close statistically. Likewise, Giant quarterback Daniel Jones has always been known as a capably mobile quarterback since his days at Duke.

He’s no Lamar Jackson in this respect. But when he faced the Eagles, he ran for 92 yards on four carries and a touchdown. Again, he easily achieved his season-best performance when facing Philly.  Jones approached that 92-yard effort in two other games, one of which came in his rematch with, you guessed it, the Eagles. In the rematch, the Eagles could not help but allow Jones to run for 64 yards and a touchdown on nine carries.

Russell Wilson

Wilson has played in 10 games so far. He exceeded 31.5 rushing yards in five of them. So we only need this trend to continue — that the Eagles allow season-best rushing efforts against mobile quarterbacks — in order for Russell to easily eclipse 31.5 rushing yards.

It’s obvious now that the Seahawks can attack Philadelphia’s defense in this way. Wilson will find out that the Eagles still cannot procure an antidote.

NFL Pick: Wilson Over 31.5 Rushing Yards at -120 with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Wilson Over 31.5-120

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D.K. Metcalf Physical Traits 

D.K. Metcalf is one of the most preferred deep ball recipients that any quarterback has at the moment. Currently, he ranks second in number of deep targets and third in air yards. The latter category measures the total number of yards through the air that passes intended for him have traveled. 

One reason why he is so desired as a deep target is his size. He is 6-3 and 228 pounds. So he uses his height and physicality to go up in the air for contested catches. Today, Metcalf will have at least a few inches on the cornerback covering him. Metcalf is also fast. He has run a 4.33 40-yard dash. So he can blow past his opposing cornerback. Given his physical tools, Metcalf ranks seventh in the NFL in yards per target and 10th in yards per reception.

Eagle Secondary

As a unit, the Eagle secondary struggles considerably against the deep ball. Philly ranks 29th in passer rating and 25th in opposing completion percentage against 20+-yard pass attempts. The thing is, the Eagles have had it easy in terms of opposing quarterbacks.

Due to Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott’s injury, the Eagles still have not faced a quarterback who ranks top-10 in QBR (quarterback rating). Wilson ranks 8th in the category. Philadelphia’s secondary lacks, especially, meaningful size. So there aren’t exactly many options that the Eagles can employ to contend with Metcalf.

Darius Slay will likely be tasked with trying to outcompete Metcalf physically and to stick with him vertically and otherwise. Slay, too, has had it fairly easy. He’s faced a couple of pretty good wide receivers, sure, but none with the combination of size and speed that he’ll encounter tonight in Metcalf.

Examining Options 

I considered many ways to attack, given that I like Wilson passing and running I like Metcalf receiving. The prop “Metcalf To Score” is too chalky at -150. Given his size especially, he is a strong red zone target. An interesting prop bet is “Longest Touchdown over/under 39.5 yards.” 

Of the 17 receiving touchdowns that Metcalf has accumulated in his career, 10 went for 25 yards or more. So asking Metcalf (or anyone else) to accomplish a 40-yard+ touchdown isn’t unreasonable. However, for my NFL pick, I like the Metcalf over 74.5 receiving yards the most because I can hereby concentrate on what will be a strength for Seattle’s passing attack.

One of the best deep ball throwers in the game in Russell Wilson will easily accrue big yardage gains by throwing to Metcalf.

NFL Pick: Metcalf Over 74.5 Receiving Yards at -114 with Bovada

Metcalf Over 74.5-114

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