Months of bombast, threats, conspiracy theories, heated rhetoric, and the occasional good idea come to a long-awaited and exhausting conclusion today with the 2020 US Election Season writing its final chapter. Or maybe it’s just the beginning of a long-drawn-out legal fight about the direction the country is to go in. Who knows?
One thing about the 2020 Campaign Season that cannot be denied – it hasn’t been boring! Both Donald Trump and Joe Biden have certainly had their highs and lows during the campaign and still nobody can definitively say which way this election will go.
Businesses in major cities in the US are boarding up their windows, National Guards are on standby and an unscalable fence has been set up around the White House in preparation for possible violence. Nearly 100 million citizens cast their vote early which represents about 73% of the total vote from 2016 and 230,000+ are dead from COVID-19. Pretty standard stuff really!
But one trend that stands out is just how consistent the US election odds and US election polls have been for the last few months. Donald Trump has tried every trick in the book to minimize Joe Biden’s effectiveness as the Democratic challenger but hasn’t been able to lay much of a glove on him just yet.
So, on the theoretical Final Day of the 2020 Election Campaign, let’s take a look at just where things stand in the eyes of the best sportsbooks and pollsters.
Trump Fails to Deliver That Knockout Blow
Donald Trump was able to outwork and take advantage of his opponents’ misfortunes (James Comey) in 2016. Trump was able to paint Hillary Clinton into an unflattering corner at every turn – something he hasn’t been able to do with Joe Biden. Nothing that Trump has thrown at Biden has stuck.
The result has been remarkable consistency with the Election odds and polls. According to Bovada, Joe Biden hasn’t been below a -140 favorite since September 30 – Trump was actually EVEN odds back on September 29 but hasn’t touched those numbers since.
Truth be told, Trump looks as though he has been his own worst enemy. Disastrous debate performances, attacks on the beloved Anthony Fauci, and his downplaying of the coronavirus have prevented Trump from making any sort of breakthrough this Campaign Season. That’s why on Election-Eve, Trump is a +155 underdog while Biden is a -185 favorite according to Bovada. BetOnline has Biden -190 and Trump +165.
Odds Support the Polls
Another remarkably consistent aspect of the 2020 US Election Campaign is just how closely the odds have mirrored the polls. The National Polls have consistently had Biden up 7-9 points, just where it sits on this Election Day.
In CNN’s final Poll of Polls, Biden was up 50% to 46% in Arizona, in North Carolina Biden was up 51%-45%, Wisconsin 52%-44%, and Michigan 53%-41%. Biden held a slight 1.7% lead in Florida and was within 1% in Georgia and Texas – just about where similar polls have landed the last few months.
Just like the election betting odds, the polls have remained incredibly consistent down the stretch of this Election Season. Translation – the path for a Joe Biden victory seems apparent. Democrat PTSD won’t allow many to say it, but it is true.
For those of you that bought Joe Biden when he was -105 in early September, you look like you are in for an OK payday. There was little value in wagering on Biden the last month or so. Or if Donald Trump somehow pulls a Russia out of his hat again in 2020, his betting backers will be rewarded handsomely.
One Final Peek at the Props
There are still some intriguing prop bets for a US Election Betting Season that has truly seen oddsmakers outdo themselves. Let’s take a peek at a few from BetOnline. (Visit our BetOnline Review)
Majority Control of the U.S. Senate
Number of votes for Donald Trump
Number of votes for Joe Biden
Voter turnout in the U.S Presidential Election
Voter turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election
On which day will the loser concede the election?
- December 1st. 2020 or later +225
- November 4th. 2020 +225
- November 3rd. 2020 +275
- November 5th. 2020 +600
- November 6th. 2020 +900
- November 7th. 2020 +1000
- November 8th. 2020 +1200
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