College football Week 11 best bets – Don’t sleep on Northwestern

It’s true that the coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc on college football. But while it can stop some, it can’t stop everyone (at least it isn’t right now). Despite plenty of cancellations, we still have a jam-packed schedule on hand for this weekend. There may not be any great matchups, but that doesn’t mean there are not any great bets.

Let’s take a look at the best college football bets for Week 10.

Northwestern Wildcats -2.5 at Purdue Boilermakers

Both Big Ten squads are undefeated The sample size is bigger for Northwestern, which is 3-0 thanks to victories over Maryland, Iowa, and Nebraska. A 43-3 beatdown of Maryland was especially impressive–and has only improved in stature in the wake of the Terrapins’ resurgence in wins over Minnesota and Penn State. The Wildcats are surrendering a mere 12 points per game; their defense was expected to be good heading into 2020 and it has been even better than advertised. In fact, they have not given up a single second-half point. That is obviously bad news for the Boilermakers, who are 2-0 after having last week’s game against Wisconsin cancelled because of coronavirus issues. Aidan O’Connell has been picked off twice through two games and Northwestern already has eight interceptions. You just have to love the Wildcats defense here. It is been dominant on third downs and ranks third in the nation in pass efficiency defense. Is It is also worth noting that the Boilermakers are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry. The home team is not going to be able to do much against Northwestern if it remains one-dimensional. The Wildcats are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four overall, 3-0-1 ATS in their last four against the Big Ten, and 4-0 ATS in their last four trips to Purdue.

Arkansas Razorbacks +17.5 vs. Florida Gators

Arkansas has been overachieving all year and it shows in its 6-0 ATS record. Florida is due for a letdown this week coming off of a huge win against Georgia. Quarterback Feleipe Franks (formerly a Gator!) has been playing amazing in the last five games, recording 13 touchdowns and only one interception. The Gators may be due to for a letdown two, having just picked up a huge win over a Georgia team that does not have any semblance of a QB. They won’t find as much success against Franks and company.

Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders Over 57

Both of these teams have been terrible this season, but Texas Tech has been worse. The Red Raiders have only won one of their last six games dating back to 2019 and have only covered one of their last five. Their biggest problems come on defense. They cannot stop any offense from scoring, having surrendered at least 30 points in six of their seven games this season. Meanwhile, Baylor has yielded at least 27 points in each of its past four outings and Texas Tech’s pass-happy attack can exploit that. But can the Red Raiders keep up with Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer? That answer to that is…probably not!

Wisconsin Badgers -4.5 at Michigan Wolverines

To say that Michigan is desperate for a win would be a gross understatement. The Wolverines opened with a victory over Minnesota but promptly lost to Michigan State and Indiana in succession. A 38-21 setback against the Hoosiers last weekend was especially alarming. On offense, head coach Jim Harbaugh is using a carousel of running backs and none of them have been able to get into a rhythm. The Wolverines’ defense has been more of a problem. They rank 104th in the country against the pass, allowing 287.3 such yards per contest. It sounds like Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz will be good to go for this one and he should be able to exploit those deficiencies. His team has played just one game in 2020 due to coronavirus issues, but it was an impressive one (a 45-7 drubbing of Illinois). Mertz went 20-of-21 for 248 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions at the Fighting Illini’s expense. The Badgers are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 on the road, 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Big Ten, and 10-2-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings between the two teams.

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