Indiana vs. Florida State Odds

The Big Ten/ACC Challenge rolls on Wednesday as Indiana heads to Tallahassee to take on 20th-ranked Florida State.

Indiana began its season in the Maui Invitational, notching wins over Providence and Stanford, but also got blown out by Texas. It’s now or never for Archie Miller in his fourth year in Bloomington. Indiana finished in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten, and the Hooiser faithful need to see results if Miller is going to see a fifth year.

Leonard Hamilton is going to have to replace his three main contributors from last season but has plenty of talent returning to turn the Noles into a threat to win the ACC. He secured the highest-rated recruit of his tenure in Scottie Barnes and the best junior college prospect in Sardaar Calhoun. Florida State opened its season with a blowout win over North Florida, so this will be its toughest test yet this season.

Indiana Hoosiers

For Indiana, the offense runs through sophomore Trayce Jackson-Davis. He was the Hoosiers’ leading scorer and highest used player as a freshman, so as he goes, Indiana goes.

Outside of losing Devonte Green, Archie Miller has all of his main contributors back, which has jumped Indiana from 34th in the KenPom rankings last season to 20th in 2020. The improvements for Indiana are expected mostly on the offensive end of the floor. In 2019, the Hoosiers were below the NCAA average in effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and free-throw percentage. However, most of their success shooting the ball came from Green, as he took almost 33% of their 3-pointers last season.

On the defensive end of the floor, the Hoosiers struggled in Big Ten play, ranking near the bottom in effective field goal percentage allowed, 3-point percentage allowed, and 2-point percentage allowed. They’ve been much better through their first four games, but Florida State will be the most athletic team they’ve faced yet this season.

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Florida State Seminoles

Hamilton yet again has the most athletic team in the ACC. He loses Patrick Williams, Devin Vassell, and Trent Forrest, who were his three best players. However, the newcomers he has coming in are a perfect fit for his system.

In 2019, Florida State was one of the best teams at creating havoc on defense. It was the No. 1 team in the ACC in turnover percentage, block percentage, and steal percentage. With another athletic team coming back, there’s no reason it can’t match those numbers again in 2020.

In years past, the reason Florida State has fallen short of the final has been its shooting. However, last season, the Seminoles ranked in the top 100 in every shooting category and are likely to maintain their numbers, as their offensive efficiency is projected to be about the same as last season, per KenPom. For Florida State to win on Wednesday, it will need to use its athleticism to dominate on the defensive end of the floor.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I think Florida State’s defense will be the difference in this game. Indiana struggled to score only 44 points against Texas, which is an elite defensive team. Indiana also doesn’t have any other significant threats outside of Jackson-Davis.

I have Florida State projected as -3.24 favorites and a total of 139.33 points. However, staring center Joey Brunk is out and backup point guard Aljami Durham is questionable to play. Therefore, I think there’s some value on the Seminoles at.

Pick: Florida State -3 | Play up to -3.5

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