Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Club Brugge vs. Dortmund (Wednesday, Nov. 4)

Club Brugge vs. Dortmund Odds

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Second place in Group F is up for grabs on Wednesday when Borussia Dortmund visits Club Brugge. The Belgian champions hold a one-point edge over Dortmund after beating Zenit on the road and then drawing against Lazio in their last match.

Dortmund is in a difficult situation. Not only are they in third place and in need of a result for their Champions League hopes, but they have a match with Bayern Munich lurking this weekend. It’ll be interesting to see what kind of starting XI Lucien Favre goes with on Wednesday.

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Club Brugge

The Belgian champions are no strangers to the Champions League as this is the fourth straight year they have qualified for Europe’s biggest competition. The Blauw-Zwart have a -3.24 expected goals differential over the past three Champions League seasons.

Club Brugge does have the talent to hang with Dortmund. Their fantastic attacking trio of Emmanuel Dennis, Krepin Diatta, and Hans Vanaken have combined for 10 goals and 10 assists already this season in the Jupiler League.

Former Liverpool goalkeeper Simon Mignolet and FCB’s defense have held oppoents in Belgium’s first division to under 0.80 xG per match over the past two years.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Dortmund

Dortmund is flying high to start the Bundesliga season, tied with Bayern Munich on points and boasting a +8.38 xGD. However, dating back to last season, Die Borussen are due for some negative regression. The difference between Dortmund’s expected goal differential and their actual differential is staggering:

Dortmund stumbled in their first Champions League match, losing on the road at Lazio 3-1. They rebounded and beat Zenit with two late goals last week, but now they are in a tough spot in the calendar. They need all three points from this match to avoid falling further behind Brugge and Lazio in Group F, but they also have the most important fixture of their Bundesliga campaign on Saturday against Bayern Munich.

There is no doubt Die Borussen will be looking ahead to that match and Lucien Favre will need to manage his squad accordingly.

Projections and Pick

I think that Club Brugge are live dogs in this match, especially given how well they’ve played in their two Champions League matches this year.

With Dortmund in a lookahead spot, I’ll back the Belgian champions to get at least a draw from this match at +128.

Pick: Club Brugge +0.5 (+128)

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