Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions: Atalanta vs. Liverpool (Wednesday, Nov. 25)

Atalanta vs. Liverpool Odds

Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Atalanta travel to Anfield for a Champions League Group D rematch with Liverpool on Wednesday. The teams’ first meeting in Italy was all Liverpool, with the Reds winning, 5-0.

Atalanta has some things to figure out, but there is still time to do just that. Liverpool are playing very well, albeit down a few players.

This one should be as fun as the first matchup.

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Liverpool

Liverpool are playing very well right now. Even down multiple starters, they took it to Leicester City, 3-0, and Liverpool could have scored more.

It sounds like Mohamed Salah will be back for this one, which is fantastic news for the Reds. Their front three of Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota shredded Leicester’s usually solid defense.

Atalanta can create many great chances, but are susceptible to let its opponents create chances. I don’t care who you are, I would not want to face this Liverpool attacking unit right now. Also, having Fabinho to help stabilize the back is a big positive for the Reds. Liverpool are very tough to beat at Anfield and should definitely be feeling confident coming into this one.

Liverpool played Atalanta in Bergamo in the teams’ previous match day. The xG was not as impressive as the 5-0 final score, as the Reds finished with a 2.53-1.16 advantage. Liverpool really did dominate most of the game, and Atalanta had some chances on the counter they usually take advantage of.

The positives were that Liverpool dominated in the midfield, limited Atalanta’s chances and were assassins in the final third. Their form in the Premier League is very strong as of late, especially given the injury concerns. If they have Andrew Robertson, Fabinho and the rest of their attacking players healthy, this unit is still good enough to win the Premier League.

With Salah back, this team will continue to execute offensively. If they can limit errors on the defensive end, they will be really tough to beat. I would think long and hard before betting against them at Anfield right now.

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Atalanta

The boys from Bergamo appear to be in a little bit of a slump.

The 5-0 defeat to Liverpool was a surprise to everyone. Atalanta are a fan-favorite and usually can score with anyone. On top of that, Liverpool had injury concerns and didn’t really prove to that point that they had the depth that would be needed.

Atalanta were also missing some players, and it really showed in their midfield. They could never really get control of the game, and depended on playing it up to Duvan Zapata to hold up and counter. They did have two or three good chances, but just couldn’t put them away.

Liverpool played very well, and have continued that form since the first match. It won’t get easier for Atalanta having to travel to Anfield for a game where they could really use a point.

On top of the poor showing against Liverpool, Atalanta have gone 1-2-2 over their last five domestic matches in Serie A. They lost to Sampdoria, barely beat Crotone, had back-to-back draws again Inter Milan and a goalless draw vs. Spezia (yikes).

They did put up 2.2 xG against Spezia, but they seem to be underperforming their xG data as of late rather than outperforming it like they were last season.

I am a bit worried about the congested fixture list for a squad that has some older players and not a lot of depth. Last season, the squad depended on Papu Gomez, Zapata and Josip Ilicic. Papu and Zapata look a bit tired and Illicic seems like a shell of himself.

Atalanta will be without Ruslan Malinovskyi, who is another good attacking option. Their recent form is concerning, and this might be a tough spot to expect them to turn it around.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I like Liverpool ML -152 and over 3.5 goals at -106.

Atalanta’s last three league games have gone under 3.5, but have had decent xG output. Liverpool have been scoring for fun and do have a weakness at the back — if Atalanta can exploit it.

I think this should be an open game, and I would bet on a Liverpool 3-1 or 3-2 victory.

Picks: Liverpool ML -152, Over 3.5 -106

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