Bills vs. Patriots: Week 16 NFL Monday Night Game Totals Pick

The Buffalo Bills made history last week, winning their first AFC East division title in a quarter of a century and a good year before even quarterback Josh Allen (24 years of age) was born. Doing so with an exclamation point too, in a lopsided 48-19 victory over the Denver Broncos on the road that sent a message to the rest of the AFC field about their serious intentions.

This is a team on the rise indeed, and to mark their accomplishment in 2020 several bookies are now tipping the Buffalo Bills among the best bets to win SBLV. A nod of appreciation that will be important to underline with a positive account on Monday night, at the expense of the New England Patriots who have been a thorn in their sides for so many years.

Thus, a win on Monday is going to be imperative, and the more comprehensive it is, the better because not only are bragging rights are on the line, but also the Bills are still in the race for the No.2 seed in the AFC. A position in the playoff frame that could determine a favorable course in the postseason that would underline their favorable NFL odds in turn.

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots

Monday, December 28, 2020 – 08:15 PM EST at Gillette Stadium

Going into Monday’s clash with the New England Patriots as the reigning divisional champions is going to be particularly bittersweet moment for Sean McDermott and Co., as it comes just in time for their second date with the New England Patriots this season. The side that has caused so much heartache for the Buffalo Bills mafia over the years, thanks to their ruthless domination over the AFC East for two decades.

The Bills have posted their first 11-win season in over a decade, and they take the 1-0 head-to-head edge over the Patriots into their week 16. The Bills won the first contest earlier this season, a narrow 24-21 decision at Bills Stadium that saw the Bills narrowly miss covering as the closing 4-point home chalk and the total crack the closing 41-point total.

In the second meeting between these two rivals, bookmakers send the Bills as the faves once again. Across various top sportsbooks, the Bills are laying a touchdown to the Patriots on the road in the latest Bills vs. Patriots odds on offer, up by half a point after opening at -6.5. In the meanwhile, the total is trading anywhere from 46 points or higher after opening on 44 points at early doors.

Buffalo Must-Win

Even though the division is settled already, there pressure to win this game is still relatively high as Sean McDermott’s side is eying the No.2 seed in the AFC. Under the new playoff format, the second seed no longer receives a bye in the postseason, but the lofty seeding still carries a lot of weight and favor. It could be the difference-maker in their playoff run.

Josh Allen’s maturation and development is one of the big reasons why the Bills are enjoying a lot of success in 2020. By the stats, Allen strikes a convincing pose with a positive rating of 104.2, encompassed by completing 351 of 511 passes for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns while only being intercepted nine times. Allen has also rushed 96 times for 383 yards and eight touchdowns.

The Bills offense with Allen wielding it with a confidence previously unseen is something to behold. They’re firing at all cylinders and showing no sign of slowing down as the season hurtles towards the finish-line. In particular, the Bills are riding a four-game winning streak into Gillette Stadium with wins over the Chargers, Niners, Steelers and Broncos.

Stefon Diggs has been one of Allen’s favourite go-to-targets this season, while Devin Singletary has been gobbling up yards on the ground and tearing down opposing defenses. However, the offense has seen playmakers all over the filed play a big part in Buffalo’s success, over and above Diggs and Singletary. Those endless options are one of the reasons why the Bills offense is so potent of late.

Snatching ankles. @StefonDiggs | #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/58Owno0Wgi

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 21, 2020

New England Patriots Are Done

The New England Patriots were officially eliminated from the playoffs for the first time in over a decade, after suffering a loss to the Miami Dolphins in week 15 at Hard Rock Stadium. It was a largely ineffective Patriots offense led by Cam Newton that succumbed to the woeful 22-12 loss in Miami Gardens, failing to come through as the -1.5 closing faves on the NFL odds board. Newton had a modest showing, completing 17 of 27 passes for 209 yards. He also rushed for 38 yards last week at Miami. In the first meeting with Buffalo in week 8, Newton passed for 174 yards and rushed for 54 yards and a touchdown.

It’s been a long and tough year for Belichick and Co., right from the start. From the departure of Tom Brady, to a rash of players opting out of the season due to the coronavirus pandemic and the arrival of Cam Newton pretty late in the day set the Patriots on the backfoot even before week 1 got underway. So, that they are where they are right now in the broad spectrum of the 2020 campaign is no surprise, although it is uncharacteristic.

NFL Betting Preview and Predictions

Going into the final Monday Night Football game of the season, the Bills are in command and fully in charge of their destiny. A big win over the Patriots will only cement their bid for the No.2 seed, and they have every opportunity to capitalize on the feat. Allen and the Bills O-line are currently one of the best offenses in the league, heavily dependent on the passing game clicking. But in recent weeks, the run game has raised its profile and the defense has tightened up.

The Patriots in the meanwhile have nothing to play for save pride. Whether that intangible will be enough to derail the Bills from their intended mission remains to be seen. A lot depends on the Patriots defense and how it stacks up this time against the Bills offense. The Patriots defense is one of the stingiest units in the league, but the loss of corner Stephon Gilmore for the rest of the year is a blow. The Patriots offense, meanwhile, is run heavy and laborious around Cam Newton, a fact that has a tendency to slow down the game.

Whichever side will control the tempo of the game will determine whether the score falls below or above projected totals that are currently trading across NFL betting sites. No two teams could be more contrasting in their play, making this a right toss up for NFL picks in OVER and UNDER betting.

That said, with the Bills winning the AFC East title, they might go into this game with a lot less pressure than when they first came up against New England. That could mean Allen and Co. will play a lot more freely and with joyful abandon. Beating the Patriots in week 8 was a moment Sean McDermott savored greatly. He may well get the added satisfaction of experiencing another first in his coaching career in Buffalo: steamrolling a Patriots side that is still reeling from the shambles that is their 2020 campaign.

NFL Pick: OVER 46 (-109) with GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)

Bills-Patriots O/46(-109)

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