Bengals vs. Steelers NFL Week 10: Value Quarterback Props for Burrow and Roethlisberger

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, November 15, 2020 – 04:25 PM EST at Heinz Field

Divisional matchups are some of the zaniest and most difficult games to bet. Coaching staffs know everything about their foe, even their willingness to break off trends and tendencies. These games come down to playmakers, but usually it's the role players who ascend to the moment more than the superstars doing even more. We're going to break down the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals Week 10 matchup. The Steelers sit at a comfortable 8-0 and the Bengals continue their rebuilding phase with a 2-5-1 record.

The undefeated Steelers are looking to continue their hotly debated start by taking care of business at home. Some feel as though the Steelers are fraudulent thanks to one of the easiest schedules in the league and middling analytical numbers. Their task is much more difficult this week thanks to Ben Roethlisberger being ruled out for the week after he was exposed to a person who tested positively for COVID-19.

The Bengals are trending in the right direction from where they were last year, at least. Joe Burrow and this Bengals offense is a set of blockers and maybe a better coach away from being elite, but the building blocks are being solidified for the future right now. Burrow's going to be a star, and is outperforming his stats by a comfortable margin.

Will Roethlisberger Play?

The status of Roethlisberger certainly throws a wrench into this line. Some spreads came down after the Roethlisberger news, and until there's certainty on his status, the value swings significantly. Getting the Bengals at anything more than plus-three is still advisable.

For as many question marks surrounding Mason Rudolph, this team knows how to win in spite of his considerable limitations. Mike Tomlin's greatest coaching season came in 2019 with the Steelers competing with Rudolph under center. His weak arm and slow decision-making handicapped the offense from growing, and the difference with Roethlisberger has been significant.

However that's not enough to go against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's run game should still find success against the Bengals' bottom-three ranked run defense, and that should be the storyline of the game. Stopping James Conner and forcing Rudolph to beat them in a shootout with Burrow on their side would be a massive step towards an upset for the Bengals.

Prediction

The Steelers' defense is why I still think the Bengals would lose outright against a Rudolph-led team. They rank in the top-five and top-10 against the pass and run, respectively, and are filled with playmakers as a unit. Their ability to much up passing windows means Burrow is more prone to taking sacks and making turnover-worthy throws than usual. As good as he's been, this is the week he's at risk for his first two-interception game.

The season opener with the Bengals losing 16-13 to the Chargers is a good blueprint and prediction for how this game goes. I don't think Rudolph hits more than 230 yards passing or multiple touchdowns without massive coverage busts, so we'll see a defensive struggle that features more field goals than what would normally happen if everyone was healthy. It's also important to note this is their first matchup of the year, with their next matchup coming in late December.

If Roethlisberger is deemed available, quickly go the other way with these bets. The Steelers will cover one touchdown, and push the total slightly over at these NFL odds. The Bengals' defense is good enough against bad, young quarterbacks but not efficient ones who are seeing the field well.

Roethlisberger has aged well and is playing smarter than years past. The quarterback position is that important, but not so much that Burrow's budding star is bright enough to dethrone a solid Steelers team on his own. His defense has a way to go before we're taking the Bengals moneyline with our NFL picks in this matchup.

My Picks: Bengals +6.5 (-110) and Under 45.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

Under 45.5 (-110)

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