Here’s hoping the Baylor-Iowa State Big 12 matchup on Saturday will actually be played after one of our games picked last week wasn’t due to COVID-19. Which way to lean at SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks?
Baylor Bears vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, November 7, 2020 – 07:00 PM ET – MidAmerican Energy Field at Jack Trice Stadium
We had been on a nice winning run for our individual game picks here at SBR, but last week’s Wisconsin-Nebraska Big Ten matchup was ruled a no-contest because the Badgers had a COVID-19 outbreak. The Big Ten didn’t build in any bye weeks.
This Big 12 matchup vs. Baylor and Iowa State is very important for the Cyclones as they are tied for first in the conference with Kansas State at 4-1. Every single Big 12 school has at least one loss so it’s tough to see how even the conference champion gets to the College Football Playoff. Iowa State is a +400 to win the Big 12 title game at the top sportsbooks. Two-loss Oklahoma is the +120 favorite, but ISU already hold a head-to-head win over the Sooners.
Last year, Baylor beat Iowa State 23-21 in Waco. The Bears were up 20-0 entering the fourth quarter, saw ISU take the lead with 3:45 left, but BU won it on a John Mayers 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining. Mayers, who badly missed a kick earlier in the game, barely made it. Bears QB Charlie Brewer threw for 307 yards and three scores, while Iowa State counterpart Brock Purdy threw for 342 with two scores and a pick.
Baylor leads the all-time series 10-8 and has won five of the past seven. However, ISU holds a 5-4 lead in Ames. The home team is 10-4-1 against the spread in the past 15 meetings on the NCAAF picks. The under is 4-1 in the previous five.
Bears Have Habit Of Starting Slow
Baylor has had a very unusual schedule with three games postponed for COVID-19 issues so far. The two non-conference ones will not be made up, while one vs. Oklahoma State will be played Dec. 12 now all things willing.
The Bears, under first-year coach Dave Aranda (former defensive coordinator at LSU), blew out Kansas in their opener but have dropped three straight since. They were 33-23 home losers to TCU last Saturday. The Frogs jumped out to a 27-0 lead in the first 17 minutes. Slow starts have been a problem.
"We have to build a mindset to start the game that we're in attack mode from the beginning," Aranda said. "That starts with me."
Brewer was just 17 of 37 for 203 yards with two scores and a pick – he had 11 carries for minus-23 yards when sacks were factored in. The senior Brewer has been playing at Baylor since like 2010 it feels like. He is one of just two returning FBS quarterbacks this season who had at least 20 TD passes and 10 rushing scores last year. The other is Heisman Trophy favorite Justin Fields of Ohio State.
Tight end Ben Sims had both TD catches vs. TCU, the first Baylor tight end since 2017 with multiple touchdowns in a season. It was the first two-TD game for a tight end since way back in 2008 by Justin Akers.
Senior running back John Lovett and junior wideout Tyquan Thornton were both injured and are questionable for this one. Lovett has carried the ball 36 times for just 125 yards and a TD this year, while Thornton has eight catches for 67 yards.
On to the next.
— Cyclone Football (@CycloneFB) November 2, 2020
Cyclones Have One Of Nation’s Top Backs
Iowa State was supposed to have a Heisman candidate in Purdy the quarterback, and he could be a first-round pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. Purdy has been pretty good, but the Cyclones’ star is easily sophomore running back Breece Hall. He’s second in the nation with 901 rushing yards (6.7 yards per carry) and tied for second with 11 rushing scores. Hall already has topped his 2019 season totals.
ISU bounced back from an Oct. 24 loss at Oklahoma State with a 52-22 rout at Kansas last Saturday. Hall matched a career high with 185 yards rushing and two scores. Purdy had 239 yards passing with two scores and a rushing TD. He now has 50 career passing touchdowns, tying the school record set by Bret Meyer from 2004-07. Purdy is now 15-6 in his career vs. Big 12 foes.
Coach Matt Campbell’s team rushed for a season-high 258 yards, the school’s most in Big 12 play since 2016. ISU has rushed for 200+ yards in three consecutive games for the first time since 2015, and the first three-game stretch in conference play since 2009. ISU leads the Big 12 and ranks 23rd nationally in rushing per game (200.7), with 200+ rushing yards in four of the six this year.
Iowa State is now 24-5 under Campbell when leading at halftime, and 25-5 when leading after three quarters. The 4-1 conference start matches the best in school history.
Baylor has not done well vs. the run this year, allowing 177.3 yards per game, only better than Kansas in the Big 12. ISU is 13-5-2 ATS in its past 20 following an ATS win.
Most simulations I’ve seen have Iowa State winning by around 10 points, so we’ll take the points and buy a half-point at -14 to get off a possible push.
NCAAF pick: Baylor at -14 (buy up to +14.5) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
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