The NFL is back and we have coverage for every game, handing out free top picks and odds analysis as always. We were able to hit big wins in the first four weeks, and Monday Night Football looms as one of the more intriguing matchups of Week 4. We have your last chance value picks for the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers showdown.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
Monday, October 05, 2020 – 08:50 PM EDT at Lambeau Field, WI.
First Half Winning Margin
The Packers are the league’s top-scoring offense through three games and they’re facing a defense that hasn’t been able to get a consistent performance yet. While the injuries to the receiving corps of Green Bay are concerning, head coach Matt LaFleur has done an excellent job scheming open big plays. It’s also helped that Aaron Rodgers has been lights out with his accuracy after struggling a bit in 2019 with his willingness to test tight windows.
Atlanta’s offense can also score and that’s going to factor into the final spread of this contest. However they’re not a play-from-ahead team. Their rushing game is poor, and Matt Ryan has a lot of pressure to produce thanks to the lack of run support and defensive reliability. It’s easy to see why this team falls into holes early.
I love the return on the 7-9 point range. One touchdown feels right, and I think that’ll be the margin for a large portion of this contest.
Free NFL Pick: Packers by 7-9 points at +750 at Bovada
Any Packers fan will tell you about the struggles of their defense under Mike Pettine. The 21st-ranked defense is often benign and predictable despite having enough playmakers to be much more aggressive. Though this has worked with a great offense, they allow easy scoring drives that keep their foes in the game.
Atlanta’s receiving corps is excellent and they’ll find holes to create damage. The Packers’ pass rush hasn’t been as effective as last season, and giving Ryan time with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst and Russell Gage at his disposal will lead to scores. Three touchdowns is absolutely doable for this offense. It’ll be a blowout if they fail to reach that number.
Free NFL Pick: Over 2.5 at -115 at BetOnline
Spread
I’m expecting a shootout for this contest. And what normally happens is that the lesser team comes back late to get a score to make the final much closer than what played out until that point. I think Atlanta stays annoyingly close this week, but ultimately loses by one score. But that’s a win for us with this spread.
Green Bay isn’t tremendously talented on offense and eventually it’ll hurt them. This won’t be the week it costs them a win, but the cracks in their playmaking foundation will show more.
Free NFL Pick: Atlanta +7 at -120 at BetOnline
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