Quarterback
Matt Ryan vs. Chicago Bears $6,600
Not many are talking about it, but Matt Ryan is having a pretty good start to his fantasy season. In Week 1, he returned 3.7x value thanks to 450 yards and two touchdowns, and in Week 2, he returned 4.3x value thanks to four passing touchdowns. This week, he will be challenged at home by a 2-0 Bears team that has allowed just one passing touchdown (Matthew Stafford, Daniel Jones) through two weeks. Despite the Bears’ success, they haven’t faced a team with as many healthy weapons as Ryan does. Now, news came out earlier this week that Julio Jones‘s hamstring issue is notable, which could have him at less than 100%. If anything, this will keep Ryan’s ownership numbers down. Still, with Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Todd Gurley, and Hayden Hurst, there will be more than enough of firepower to return over 3x value this week–a fine result for a low-owned player in tournaments. The Falcons are 3.5-point favorites with an implied point total of 25.5 points.
Tom Brady at Denver Broncos $6,100
Despite winning their football game, Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady was challenged in every way against the Panthers last week, completing 23 passes for just 217 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The growing pains have been apparent, but it is only a matter of time until Brady’s offense clicks. This week, Brady will face a Broncos team that will have allowed the 6th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season and ranks 21st in DVOA against the pass. With Chris Godwin back in the mix, and the better running back earning his way to meaningful carries, I fully expect the Tampa Bay to play lights-out on the road this week. The Buccaneers are favored by a touchdown with an implied point total of 24.75 points.
Mitchell Trubisky at Atlanta Falcons $5,700
I can’t believe that I’m recommending Mitchell Trubisky for the second week in a row, especially after a week of throwing for just 190 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions, but I think this game is going to be close and high-scoring enough to warrant a similar Week 1 performance. The problem with Trubisky (where do we start, right?) is that he’s wildly inaccurate when targeting his top wide receiver, but he still throws enough wildly accurate throws at the right time. This forces people like you and me (maybe just me if you’re not on board), to consider him in tournament contests based off his boom-or-bust nature and favorable salary. This week, Trubisky will face a Falcons team that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season (35.73), and ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass. It is likely that any quarterback is capable of exploiting the Falcons defense this season. This week, it’s Trubisky’s turn. The Bears are 3.5-point road underdogs with an implied point total of 22 points.
Running Back
Derrick Henry at Minnesota Vikings $7,800
He has not scored a touchdown yet, but no running back has evaded more tackles this season than Derrick Henry. According to Player Profiler, Henry leads all running backs in evaded tackles with 25—six more than Dalvin Cook, who has the 2nd-most with 19. The touchdown slump is likely to come to an end this week when the Titans face a Vikings defense that has allowed the 13th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season (28.5) and rank 27th in DVOA against the run. The Titans are 2.5-point road favorites with an implied point total of 25 points.
Leonard Fournette at Denver Broncos $6,200
It took Leonard Fournette two weeks to prove to his team and us that he should be receiving the majority of snaps, carries, and targets out of the backfield. Last week against the Panthers, Fournette averaged 8.58 yards on 12 carries and scored two touchdowns. He also caught four of his five targets for 13 yards. There’s still a notable chance that Ronald Jones will siphon at least half of the carries on any given week, but I don’t think there’s much of a reason for Kliff Kingsbury to completely disregard putting the ball in Fournette’s hands after the week he had. The Buccaneers will be challenged much more than they were last week, against a Broncos team that has allowed just 19.6 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season. I think it’s going to be Tom Brady Week this week, and I have a sneaky suspicion that he will utilize Fournette in the short passing game–maybe even one for a touchdown? The Buccaneers are 6-point favorites with an implied point total of 24.75 points.
Melvin Gordon III vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers $5,800
Melvin Gordon III has shown poise in the run and passing game in Phillip Lindsay‘s absence. Last week, at a salary of $5,200, Gordon averaged 3.68 pedestrian yards on 19 attempts, but catching two of his three targets helped him return over 3x value. Gordon is the locked-in lead running back and should continue to receive workhorse touches outside and within the red zone, especially with Jeff Driskel behind center and Courtland Sutton out for the year. This week, Gordon faces a Buccaneers defense that has allowed 35.40 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, which ranks 28th in the league. The Broncos are 6-point underdogs with an implied point total of 18.75 points.
Jerick McKinnon at New York Giants $4,900
With injuries to both Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman (and avoiding getting cute with Jeff Wilson), Jerick McKinnon is the running back to have exposure to this week, especially with Nick Mullens behind center. Mullens will rely on McKinnon in the short passing game in order to keep the 49ers afloat, despite it not happening in the second half of the game last week. McKinnon broke away with a 55-yard rush against the Jets last week and averaged 11 yards on his other two carries. Despite the opportunity expectation, it’s yet to be seen if McKinnon will be offered or can handle the increased workload. I think he can, and will, but for that reason, his ownership percentage will stay low. This week, he will face a Giants defense that gave up 19-113-0 to Benny Snell in Week 1 and 16-82-0 (3-45-1 through the air) to David Montgomery in Week 2. I think McKinnon can see a similar output to Montgomery which would be nothing short of hopeful at his $4,900 salary. The 49ers are 4-point favorites with an implied point total of 22.5 points.
Antonio Gibson at Cleveland Browns $4,700
Last week, we finally saw a flash of what many were waiting for with Antonio Gibson. He led all Washington running backs in snaps with 43 (J.D. McKissic, 29) and averaged 4.23 yards on his 13 carries with one of those going for six points. Now that the landscape has been paved in that backfield, I expect Gibson to start running away (no pun intended) with snap and market share percentages, with McKissic only involved on situational third downs. This week, he faces the stingy run defense of the Cleveland Browns but should see enough volume in a lower-scoring game to return value on his low $4,700 salary cost. The Washington Football Team are 7-point underdogs with an implied point total of 18.5 points.
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Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Detroit Lions $7,900
After a week of returning over 4.2x value at his $6,800 Week 1 salary, DeAndre Hopkins returned just 2.7x of his $7,700 salary last week against the Washington Football Team. His target numbers came down to earth after seeing 16 in Week 1, but he still caught eight of his nine targets last week for 68 yards and a touchdown. We did not need much time, but it is apparent that Kliff Kingsbury is on board with funneling the offense through his WR1, and Hopkins’s 10.9-yard average depth of target seems to be the sweet spot for Murray’s hybrid playstyle. This week, Hopkins will face a favorable matchup against a Lions team that ranks last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing wide receivers this season. The game script could have the Cardinals focus more on the run game, but Hopkins is should still a near-lock for 9-10 targets. The Cardinals are 5.5-point favorites with an implied point total of 30 points.
D.J. Moore at Los Angeles Chargers $6,100
In each of the Panthers’ first two games, D.J. Moore has out-snapped teammates Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel but has been the fantasy WR2 for the Panthers. Despite seeing fewer targets (18) than Moore (22), Anderson has caught 15 of them for 223 yards and a touchdown whereas Moore caught 12 for 174 touchdown-less yards. Now, there’s already narratives being written that question if Moore is the Panthers wide receiver to play in any given week, but reaching conclusions after just two games is a poor method, especially when Moore continues to lead the team in targets. With Christian McCaffrey out for several weeks, all Panthers pass-catchers will benefit, but I expect Teddy Bridgewater to lean on Moore (their best offensive player) the most. Moore will get his this week against a Chargers team that allowed Tyreek Hill 5-99-1 and Travis Kelce 9-90-1 last week. Bridgewater is no Patrick Mahomes, but Moore’s opportunity projections should help him attain a similar output to that of Hill and Kelce. The Panthers are 6.5-point underdogs with an implied point total of 18.75 points.
Tyler Boyd at Philadelphia Eagles $5,900
I whiffed on Tyler Boyd last week and might be rebounding back to him at the wrong time, but it just feels right. Last week, Boyd caught seven of his eight targets for 72 yards and a touchdown. He was also targeted twice in the red zone which bodes well for how Joe Burrow manages scoring opportunities on passing downs. Now, Boyd was out-targeted by A.J. Green eight-to-thirteen, but Green only reeled in three of them. I’m not sure if it’s safe to say we should move on from Green, but we may be seeing the transition from Boyd as the Bengals WR2 to WR1. This week, Boyd will face a stingy Eagles pass defense that has yet to yield a passing touchdown to a wide receiver this season which should hopefully keep his ownership down. The Bengals are 6-point underdogs with an implied point total of 20 points.
Diontae Johnson vs. Houston Texans $5,400
Oh, how I admire Diontae Johnson, the football player. For the second week in a row, Johnson eclipsed 10 targets. He caught eight of his 13 targets for 92 yards and a touchdown, returning over 5x value. As a result, Johnson’s salary of $5,400 is the highest it’s been in his career. Over the last two seasons, Johnson has scored double-digit fantasy points and returned over 3x value six times. For some reason, knowing JuJu Smith-Schuster is on the field, people continue to undervalue and overlook Johnson. This week, he faces a Texans team at home that ranks 12th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, and 29th in DVOA against the pass. Like the Chiefs and Ravens before them, the Steelers should drop plenty of points on the Texans and Johnson should smash value-wise. The Steelers are 4-point favorites with an implied point total of 24.5 points.
Jamison Crowder at Indianapolis Colts $5,300
Jamison Crowder is expected back to the Jets’ lackluster receiver corps this week, just in time for a beatable matchup against the Colts. In Week 1, Crowder saw 13 targets from Sam Darnold and caught seven of them for 115 yards and a touchdown. This week, Crowder faces a Colts defense that ranks 9th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season, and among the league’s worst in DVOA against the pass. Having Crowder back on the field should instill confidence for Sam Darnold, and Crowder should be peppered with targets all day, offering plenty of opportunities to return value. The Jets are 10.5-point underdogs with an implied point total of 16.5 points.
Darius Slayton vs. San Francisco $4,900
The Giants are without Saquon Barkley for the rest of the season and Sterling Shepard was just placed on Injured Reserve, which opens a wonderful opportunity for Darius Slayton at home against the 49ers. After catching six of his nine targets for 102 yards and two touchdowns on Monday Night Football in Week 1, Slayton caught just three of his six targets for 33 yards at Soldier Field in Week 2 despite seeing the second-most targets (Evan Engram, 8). Slayton at a sub-$5,000 salary should be a popular play this week not just because of the injuries and opportunity trends, but because he is facing a 49ers team that has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season with 39.45. The Giants are 4-point underdogs with an implied point total of 18.5 points.
Michael Pittman vs. New York Jets $4,000
Parris Campbell was placed on Injured Reserve which opens the door for rookie Michael Pittman. Last week, Pittman saw 92% of the Colts offensive snaps, up from 53% in Week 2, and should see similar numbers this week. He faces a Jets team that has allowed 35.75 fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, and rank 26th in DVOA against the pass. John Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Cole Beasley all had success against the Jets in Week 1, and Kendrick Bourne fared well against them last week. With T.Y. Hilton pulling coverages, Pittman should see plenty of opportunities to score his first career touchdown. The Colts are 10.5-point favorites with an implied point total of 27 points.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith at Minnesota Vikings $5,200
Jonnu Smith answered his 4-36-1 Week 1 showing with a 4-84-2 performance in Week 2. He’s averaging six targets a game, with 1.5 of those coming from within the red zone. It’s safe to assume that Ryan Tannehill wants to get the ball into Smith’s hands inside the 20, especially if Derrick Henry can’t get it done. This week, Smith faces a Vikings defense that has allowed the 7th-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season, and rank 24th in DVOA against the pass. The Titans are 2.5-point favorites with an implied point total of 25.5 points.
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Logan Thomas at Cleveland Browns $3,700
Logan Thomas did not take advantage of the “play tight ends against the Cardinals” narrative last week, but I’m going back to the well this week. With a salary of $3,700, Thomas is more affordable than 19 other tight ends. I’m not sure I could easily name 10 tight ends that I’d rather play in their matchup this week over Thomas. He’s seen eight and nine targets in each of his last two games, which include two and one red zone targets, respectively. Even better, Thomas faces a Browns team that ranks last in DVOA against the pass, and 8th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends (25.40 fantasy points per game). The Washington Football Team are 7-point road underdogs with an implied point total of 18.5 points.
DST
Colts vs. New York Jets $4,100
After two weeks, the Colts DST has seven sacks, three interceptions (thanks, Kirk Cousins), and a safety. This week, they’re facing an 0-2 Jets team that has scored three touchdowns to go with their two turnovers. The Jets have scored just 30 points in their two games and have the lowest implied point total of the slate with 16.5 points. If you can afford the safe floor at DST this week, I think it’s worth the exposure.
Football Team at Cleveland Browns $3,000
Baker Mayfield has thrown two interceptions and the Browns have two fumbles lost on the season, tying them for the 4th-worst turnover differential in the league through two weeks. The Browns are also running the 11th-fewest plays per game (63), scoring the 10th-fewest points per drive (1.95) rank 31st in offensive DVOA. Despite the small sample size, the games support the narrative. This week, the Browns face the Washington Football Team. Washington’s defense ranks 1st in DVOA, 7th in adjusted line yards (3.06), and 2nd in adjusted sack rate (16.19)–a favorable contrast to Cleveland’s offensive inconsistencies. Here’s to hoping for one or more Mayfield interceptions as well as a low-scoring football game.
My Week 3 GPP Lineup
QB – Tom Brady, TB, $6,100
RB – Leonard Fournette, TB, $6,200
RB – Melvin Gordon III, DEN, $5,800
WR – Michael Pittman Jr., IND, $4,000
WR – D.J. Moore, CAR, $6,100
WR – Diontae Johnson, PIT, $5,400
TE – Jonnu Smith, TEN, $5,200
FLEX – DeAndre Hopkins, ARI, $7,900
DST – Football Team, WAS, $3,000
Remaining Salary: $300
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